Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Two decades ago, the Atlanta Falcons pinned one of the worst losses on the Minnesota Vikings in their history, that NFC championship overtime decision at the Metrodome. Two decades later, these teams meet in a possible preview of another NFC playoff game Sunday afternoon in Atlanta.

NFL point spread: The Falcons opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 24.8-22.9 Vikings (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The Vikings ran their winning streak to seven games Thanksgiving day with a 30-23 victory over the Lions in Detroit. Minnesota led 13-0 out of the gate and 27-10 in the third quarter, let the Lions get within 27-23 early in the fourth but added a field goal and held on from there for the win and the cover as a three-point favorite.

For the day, the Vikings outgained Detroit 408-289, outrushed the Lions 136-53, won the turnover battle 2-0 and held a 35-25 advantage in time of possession.

Minnesota has now outgained each of its last nine opponents and outrushed six of its last seven foes. The Vikings are also now 7-2 both SU and ATS since inserting Case Keenum as the starter at quarterback.

At 9-2 overall, Minnesota owns the No. 2 spot in the NFC playoff standings, just one game behind 10-1 Philadelphia.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons just ran their winning streak to three games with a 34-20 victory over Tampa Bay last week. Atlanta spotted the Buccaneers an early field goal, then scored the next 17 points to take control. The Falcons later pushed their lead to 27-6, let Tampa get within 27-20 but came up with a defensive stop and tacked on a late score to cover a 10-point spread.

Atlanta piled up 516 yards of offense, as the running game produced 148 while Julio Jones grabbed 253 worth of receptions, with a couple touchdowns.

The Falcons have now outgained seven of their last nine opponents. At 7-4 overall, Atlanta owns the No. 6 spot in the NFC playoff standings.

Smart pick

This game could go either way, and in cases like this, it's better to have a field goal in your pocket than giving one away. The betting value here resides with the Vikings.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in five of the Vikings' last six games against the Falcons.

The favored team is 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games in this matchup.

The Falcons are 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against the NFC.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.