Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Baltimore Ravens are 5-1 against the spread over their last six appearances on Monday night. The Houston Texans, on the other hand, are 1-9 ATS their last 10 Monday night games.

In a key contest in the AFC playoff race, Baltimore hosts Houston on Monday night.

NFL point spread: The Ravens opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 38 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.9-13.7 Ravens (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans just stopped a three-game losing streak with a 31-21 victory over Arizona last week.

Houston trailed the Cardinals 14-10 at the half and 21-17 through three quarters, but they took the lead for good on one D'Onta Foreman touchdown run with 13 minutes to go and iced the game with a defensive stop and another Foreman score with six minutes left.

On the day, the Texans outgained Arizona 357-292, outrushed the Cardinals 134-48 and won time of possession by a 34-26 margin, in their best performance this season without Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Houston has now outrushed seven of its last nine opponents.

The Texans may only be 4-6 on the season and 2-4 in their last six games, but they're only one game behind 5-5 Baltimore in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot.

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

The Ravens recovered from that loss at Tennessee two weeks ago to blank the Packers in Green Bay last week 23-0.

Baltimore only led the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers 6-0 at the half but scored a quick touchdown out of the locker room and breezed home from there, cashing in as a two-point favorite.

On the day, the Ravens only came up with 219 yards of offense but held Green Bay to 265. Baltimore also won the turnover battle 5-1, basically resulting in a plus-16 points differential. The Ravens now rank third in the league in turnover differential at plus-eight.

At 5-5 overall, Baltimore owns the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff standings, a tiebreaker ahead of 5-5 Buffalo.

Smart pick

Houston got a good effort out of quarterback Tom Savage last week and hopes to get another one this week.

The Ravens, meanwhile, won a game last week in which they managed just 219 total yards and basically had victory handed to them. Also, this spread seems inflated toward the home team. Smart money here takes the Texans and the points.

NFL betting trends

The Texans are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Ravens.

The total has gone under in four of the Texans' last five games against the Ravens.

The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on a Monday.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.