New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The New Orleans Saints (8-2) are listed as underdogs for the first time since Week 3 as they visit the Los Angeles Rams (7-3) on Sunday in a key matchup between two NFC division leaders. The Saints have won eight in a row since starting the season at 0-2 and had covered the spread in six of seven prior to rallying for a 34-31 overtime win over the Washington Redskins last week.

NFL point spread: The Rams opened as two-point favorites; the total was 53.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 22.8-22.8 Tie (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Saints can cover the spread

New Orleans has the offensive firepower to keep up with Los Angeles as the third-highest scoring team in the NFL. The Rams average 30.3 points per game to rank second behind only the Philadelphia Eagles (32.0), and the Saints are right behind them with 30.2.

Los Angeles also struggled offensively last week in a 24-7 road loss to the Minnesota Vikings, the team's lowest output of the season in another matchup of division leaders. In addition, New Orleans has gone a remarkable 11-2-1 against the spread in its last 14 road games, which is one of the big reasons this team has succeeded after a bad start.

Why the Rams can cover the spread

Even though the Rams have yet to host the Saints since returning to Los Angeles, they have gone 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the past four home meetings, all in St. Louis. Defensively, Los Angeles had been a better team than New Orleans recently prior to the loss at Minnesota, giving up a little more than 10 points per game during a four-game winning streak.

The Rams also have two former Saints assistants on staff in Aaron Kromer and Bill Johnson, who are familiar with how head coach Sean Payton runs the team.

Smart pick

This is easily the most competitive matchup of Week 12 between two good teams that could possibly meet again in the playoffs. Despite a high over/under total, the defenses will not be much of a factor here. The over has cashed in eight of the last nine late-afternoon games for New Orleans, and that betting trend will improve to nine of 10.

NFL betting trends

The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Rams.

The Saints are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last four games on the road against the Rams.

The total has gone under in seven of the Rams' last nine games in November.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.