Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Atlanta Falcons (6-4) will go for their third straight win off a short week when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) in an NFC South matchup on Sunday as large home favorites. The Falcons held on for a 34-31 road victory against the Seattle Seahawks in last week's Monday night game after seeing opposing kicker Blair Walsh miss a potential game-tying field goal.

NFL point spread: The Falcons opened as 8.5-point favorites; the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 32.9-12.8 Falcons (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

Tampa Bay has won three of the past four meetings with Atlanta both straight up and against the spread. The Buccaneers head into the first matchup between the teams this season on a two-game winning streak after losing five in a row, building up their confidence with backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick under center.

Starter Jameis Winston remains out due to a shoulder injury, and Fitzpatrick has proven yet again that he can keep his team in games and win them.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons seem to be finally finding their stride offensively, averaging just over 30 points in winning their last two games. The defending NFC champions will be playing their next three games at home and likely need to win all of them if they want to make it back to the postseason.

Their next two games will be against current division leaders in the Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints before facing the Bucs again in Week 15. Atlanta cannot afford to lose either game versus Tampa, especially this one.

Smart pick

The Bucs have dropped six of their last seven road games while the Falcons have won six of eight at home. Both home losses for Atlanta during that stretch came against AFC East teams they were not familiar with earlier this season.

The Falcons have gone 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their previous six divisional games, and five of their last six games this year are versus NFC South foes. Look for Atlanta to win and cover this game to continue the team's late run toward successfully defending the division title.

NFL betting trends

The Buccaneers are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Falcons.

The Buccaneers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on the road against the Falcons.

The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Falcons' last 14 games at home.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.