Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The New England Patriots once trailed the all-time series with the Miami Dolphins 44-27. But with 21 wins over the last 29 meetings, including a season sweep last year, the Patriots have cut that deficit to 52-48. In a game that involves the largest point spread in the NFL so far this season, New England hosts Miami on Sunday afternoon.

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as 15.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 40.9-9.1 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins are a difficult case to make at the moment, coming off four straight defeats. Last week, Miami took the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a tie game in the fin moments, but lost 30-20.

The Dolphins led that game early 7-3, fell down 20-7 at the half, rallied to tie the score at 20-20 with three minutes left but gave up a late field goal and then one of those fumbled-lateral touchdowns to create a slightly misleading final score.

On the day, Miami actually outgained the Buccaneers 448-321. But five Dolphins turnovers basically cost them 27 points, and they got stuffed on a 4th-and-1 inside Tampa Bay territory down seven in the fourth quarter. Miami has outgained and outrushed two of its last three opponents.

Things may seem a bit bleak, but at 4-6 overall, the Dolphins only trail the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills (both 5-5) by a game in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots, on the other hand, are an easy case to make, with six wins in a row, including five covers. Last week, New England went down to Mexico City and beat Oakland 33-8, covering a seven-point spread.

The Patriots scored a touchdown on their opening possession, led 17-0 at the half and 30-0 before letting the Raiders hit the board. On the afternoon, New England outgained Oakland 420-344, and almost half the yardage the Patriots gave up came late in the game while protecting a big lead.

New England's defense still ranks last in the league in total yardage but has now held each of its last six opponents to 17 points or less. And at 8-2 overall, the Patriots trail 8-2 Pittsburgh by a tiebreaker in the battle for the best record in the AFC.

Smart pick

There's not much doubt as to who's going to win this game; New England simply outclasses Miami. However, while double-digit favorites are 12-3 straight up in the NFL this season, they're only 6-9 against the spread. The Patriots took a long flight home from Mexico City and now play against an inflated spread. It's a bit dangerous, but the smart play here probably takes the points.

NFL betting trends

The Dolphins are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games against the Patriots.

The total has gone over in 12 of the Patriots' last 15 games at home after consecutive road games.

The Patriots are 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in the early afternoon.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.