New England Patriots vs. Oakland Raiders: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Going back to the infamous "Tuck Rule" game, the New England Patriots are 5-1 straight up and 3-2-1 against the spread over the last six meetings with the Oakland Raiders.

Can New England pin another one on Oakland when the teams meet Sunday afternoon in Mexico City?

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 50 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.6-23.6 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots carry a five-game winning streak south of the border, following their 41-16 busting of the Broncos in Denver last week.

New England turned an early Broncos turnover into a touchdown and shortly after went up 14-3 when Dion Lewis returned a kickoff 103 yards for a score. The Patriots added another touchdown just before halftime to go up 27-9 and breezed from there, covering easily as seven-point favorites.

New England outgained Denver 396-339, blocked a punt—leading to a field goal—won the turnover battle 2-0, committed just one penalty and punted only once.

The Patriots now own a 12-game road winning streak, the second longest in NFL history, going 10-2 ATS in the process.

At 7-2 overall, New England sits in the No. 2 spot in the AFC playoff standings, just a tiebreaker behind top-seeded Pittsburgh, and is the favorite on the odds to win Super Bowl 52.

Why the Raiders can cover the spread

The Raiders rebounded from a bad performance at Buffalo to beat the Dolphins in Miami two Sundays ago 27-24. Oakland then had last week off.

The Raiders trailed the Dolphins well into the second quarter 6-3 but scored twice just before halftime to take a 13-9 lead.

Oakland then drove its first possession of the second half 67 yards to a touchdown and hung on from there for the victory and the cover as a three-point favorite.

On the night, the Raiders put up 379 yards of offense, as quarterback Derek Carr threw for 300 yards, connecting with tight end Jared Cook eight times for 126 yards.

Oakland may only be 4-5, but it's only a game out of the No. 6 seed in the AFC standings. And the Raiders already own two victories this season over current first-place teams, Tennessee and Kansas City.

Smart pick

New England leads the league in total offense, and while the defense ranks 32nd, it's held five straight opponents to 17 points or less.

Oakland, meanwhile, is just not the same team that used a 9-1 run to make the playoffs last year. Something's missing.

Smart money here gives the points with the Patriots.

NFL betting trends

The Patriots are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Raiders.

The total has gone under in five of the Patriots' last seven games against the Raiders.

The Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after a bye.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.