B.S. Meter on All the Top MLB Free-Agency/Trade Rumors
The annual general manager meetings are officially underway in Orlando, Florida.
While they don't generally bring the same flurry of activity that we'll see next month at the winter meetings, the GM meetings are often where teams lay the groundwork for deals that will take place later in the offseason.
As a result, the next few days through Thursday will likely provide the MLB world with a bevy of new trade rumors and speculative landing spots for top free agents.
In the meantime, let's take a look at some of the notable rumors already circulating and run them through the old B.S. meter.
2B Cesar Hernandez to the Los Angeles Angels?
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The Rumor
Pedro Moura of the Los Angeles Times reported that the Phillies "extensively examined" Cesar Hernandez during the regular season.
Overview
After the second base position produced an abysmal .601 OPS in 2017—worst in the majors by a wide margin—it should come as no surprise that the Angels are looking to upgrade.
Neil Walker is available on the free-agent market and Dee Gordon can be had via trade, but it's Cesar Hernandez whom the team has been tied to in the early stages of the offseason.
The 27-year-old is coming off another strong season in which he hit .294/.373/.421 with 41 extra-base hits and 15 stolen bases. His 6.4 WAR over the past two seasons ranks 10th among all second basemen.
However, with middle infield prospects Scott Kingery and J.P. Crawford both knocking on the door, the Phillies could be looking to flip Hernandez this offseason. His strong on-base skills and team control through the 2020 season should bring a decent return, even in a watered-down second base market.
B.S. Meter: Low
Gordon has game-changing speed, but his 3.6 percent walk rate leaves a lot to be desired, especially leading off. On the other hand, Hernandez looks like the perfect guy to slide into the leadoff spot ahead of Mike Trout, and the Angels should have enough mid-level prospect talent to get a deal done.
CF Jackie Bradley Jr. to the San Francisco Giants?
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The Rumor
Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweeted that the Giants have interest in trading for Jackie Bradley Jr. while also noting that he's one of many outfield options they're considering.
Overview
The Giants have work to do if they hope to make a quick return to contention following a disastrous 98-loss season.
Finding a power bat to man left field has been a glaring need for years, but a strong case can be made that finding a center field upgrade has become even more pressing.
Incumbent Denard Span tallied an absolutely brutal minus-27 DRS in 2017—far and away the worst of any player at any position—and that's unlikely to improve to even a passable level as he gets set to enter his age-34 season.
With that in mind, it's no surprise that Bradley is on the team's radar.
His offensive numbers dipped in 2017, but he was once again one of the league's best defensive center fielders (9 DRS, 4.9 UZR/150) and his 43 DRS since the start of the 2014 season rank 13th among all outfielders.
The 27-year-old is projected to earn a reasonable $5.9 million in his second year of arbitration and he's under team control through the 2020 season.
B.S. Meter: Moderate
I can see this happening, but only as a secondary domino to the Red Sox acquiring either J.D. Martinez or Giancarlo Stanton. Otherwise, what is Boston's motivation to deal?
SP Alex Cobb to the Chicago Cubs
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Rumor
"Obviously, if we move down the line and we're able to have some discussions with them, I'd be very honored to be able to talk with them and hopefully come to a deal," Alex Cobb told Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago about potentially joining the Cubs in free agency.
Overview
The above quote wasn't the only telling tidbit from that Mooney article.
Cobb on Cubs manager Joe Maddon: "I don't hide the fact that I've got the most respect for Joe Maddon and what he did for me coming up as a player. Not so much as a pitcher on the mound, but as a professional athlete and a professional baseball player, and how to deal with the mental side of the game. And how to deal with the stresses that come with a big-league lifestyle. There's nobody better in the game to control (that) and deal with people."
And on new Cubs pitching coach Jim Hickey, who he worked with during his time in Tampa Bay: "I can't say enough good things about him. He's become—not only a pitching coach—but a real close friend of mine."
The 30-year-old Cobb pitched well in his first full season following Tommy John surgery, going 12-10 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while working a career-high 179.1 innings—just in time for his first trip to free agency.
A four- or five-year deal is likely, but he'll still come significantly cheaper than what it would take to re-sign Jake Arrieta.
B.S. Meter: Very low
It seems like every offseason there's that one free-agent match that just makes sense on all levels and feels more like an inevitability than a mere possibility. That's Cobb to the Cubs this offseason.
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Diamondbacks Won't Re-Sign RF J.D. Martinez?
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The Rumor
Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic wrote: "Speaking at the team's charity golf event on Friday, CEO Derrick Hall seemed to give the latest indication that the Diamondbacks aren't expecting to bring back slugging free-agent outfielder J.D. Martinez."
Overview
The Piecoro article continued: "Hall said the Diamondbacks' payroll will be "close to where we've been the last couple of years." The club ended last season somewhere above $105 million and next year's roster projects north of $115 million. That would appear to leave little room for another big-ticket item like Martinez, whose agent, Scott Boras, seems to be positioning his client for a major payday."
Martinez is the consensus top bat on the free-agent market after posting a 1.066 OPS with 45 home runs and 104 RBI. His initial asking price is thought to be in the $200 million neighborhood, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com.
That might be wishful thinking given his injury history—he's topped 125 games just once in his career—but the six-year, $150 million deal that MLB Trade Rumors projected sounds reasonable.
The D-backs won 93 games in 2017 and they have all the pieces to be a serious title contender next year.
B.S. Meter: Moderate
Are the D-backs title contenders with Martinez back in the mix? Absolutely.
Are they title contenders if he winds up signing elsewhere? Yes...maybe.
That hesitation is reason enough to think the D-backs haven't slammed the door on a reunion quite yet.
RP Raisel Iglesias to the Minnesota Twins?
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The Rumor
The Twins have "inquired to Reds on (the) availability" of closer Raisel Iglesias, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network.
Overview
The Reds are several years into the rebuilding process, so they've already flipped the obvious trade chips on the roster.
However, closer Raisel Iglesias is still a valuable asset.
The 27-year-old converted 28 of 30 save chances with a 2.49 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings in his first full season as the team's closer, and his team-friendly contract adds significant value.
Iglesias signed a seven-year contract when he first defected from Cuba and he's owed just $16.6 million over the final three years of that deal.
The Twins relied on veterans Brandon Kintzler and Matt Belisle to close games in 2017, and both pitchers are now free agents, leaving the ninth inning as an obvious area to address.
Prospects John Curtiss and J.T. Chargois both have late-inning stuff and Trevor Hildenberger (37 G, 12 HLD, 3.21 ERA, 9.4 K/9) was impressive as a rookie, but relying on any of them to fill the closer's role at this point would be asking too much.
B.S. Meter: Very high
Despite their 2017 success, the Twins are still building toward the future and it would cost entirely too much in the way of young, controllable talent to get this deal done. They're not exactly one top-tier closer away from contending for a title.
San Francisco Giants Have "Most Intense" Interest in Giancarlo Stanton
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The Rumor
MLB writer Peter Gammons listed the Giants—alongside the Cardinals—as the team with the "most intense" interest in trading for Giancarlo Stanton.
Overview
The Giants finished last in the majors with 128 home runs, and Brandon Belt was the team leader with 18 long balls—the second year in a row the team did not have a 20-homer player.
Part of that stems from playing at pitcher-friendly AT&T Park, and the Giants have succeeded in the past without a lineup full of big boppers.
Buster Posey (22 HR) and Hunter Pence (20 HR) led a Giants team that only hit 132 home runs during the 2014 season and that didn't stop them from winning a World Series title.
Still, there's no doubt adding Stanton to the middle of the lineup would completely transform the offense as the team looks to rebound from a rough 2017 season.
Improving the outfield offense has also been identified as a focal point of the offseason, and Stanton is an underrated defender in right field (10 DRS, 7.1 UZR/150), where he also has a cannon arm.
But do the Giants have the pieces to swing a deal?
"I think the Giants would have to get very creative," one AL scout told Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. "That's a bottom-five farm system in San Francisco."
B.S. Meter: Moderate
I don't doubt the sincerity of the Giants' initial interest, but a lack of young talent and a perennial unwillingness to eclipse the luxury-tax threshold are going to be significant hurdles.
Boston Red Sox "Definitely in Play" for Giancarlo Stanton
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The Rumor
"They're definitely in play," a source told Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald regarding the Red Sox's interest in Stanton.
Overview
The Red Sox's top priority this offseason seems to be adding a middle-of-the-order slugger.
It's no coincidence that the offense fell off significantly following the retirement of David Ortiz, as the big addition last offseason was first baseman Mitch Moreland:
- 2016: 878 runs scored (1st in MLB), 208 HR (9th in MLB)
- 2017: 785 runs scored (10th in MLB), 168 HR (27th in MLB)
J.D. Martinez appears to be the team's top target and it's easy to see why.
He's fresh off a 45-homer season, signing him won't require the team to give up any prospects, and it also won't take the same 10-year commitment that acquiring Stanton would entail.
However, if he winds up elsewhere, there's a significant drop-off as far as impact bats on the free-agent market and the front office could quickly shift their attention to Stanton.
B.S. Meter: Low
Even if Martinez is Plan A, laying the groundwork for a potential Stanton deal now makes sense in case the Red Sox are forced to turn their focus to the trade market.
St. Louis Cardinals "Determined" to Acquire Giancarlo Stanton
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The Rumor
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote: "The Cardinals have had discussions already with Miami about trading for MVP candidate Giancarlo Stanton, the biggest name and brawniest hitter available this winter ... Both teams expect conversations to continue this week and gain clarity, with the Cardinals described by one source as “determined” in their interest."
Overview
The Cardinals have not had a true middle-of-the-order slugger since Albert Pujols departed in free agency.
Here's a quick rundown of their yearly home run leaders since he left:
- 2012: Carlos Beltran (32), Matt Holliday (27)
- 2013: Carlos Beltran (24), Matt Holliday (22)
- 2014: Jhonny Peralta (21), Matt Holliday (20)
- 2015: Matt Carpenter (28), Jhonny Peralta/Randal Grichuk (17)
- 2016: Jedd Gyorko (30), Brandon Moss (28)
- 2017: Paul DeJong (25), Matt Carpenter/Tommy Pham (23)
Not exactly eye-popping power numbers.
The Cardinals have a ton of talent in the upper levels of the minors—guys like Carson Kelly, Jack Flaherty, Tyler O'Neill, Sandy Alcantara, Magneuris Sierra and Harrison Bader—who have no clear path to playing time at the MLB level.
Contending for Triple-A championships is cool, but so are blockbuster trades to acquire the game's premier power hitter.
B.S. Meter: Very low
The Cardinals have a long history of avoiding mega contracts and clinging tight to their homegrown talent. That being said, I'm quickly warming up to the idea of them being the front-runners for Stanton, especially if the Dodgers are not a suitor. It's the type of bold move they need to make to stay relevant in the NL and they have the pieces to do it.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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