Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Green Bay Packers own the rivalry with the Detroit Lions, winning 19 of the last 23 meetings outright and going 7-3 against the spread over the last 10. But Green Bay will play for the second time this season without Aaron Rodgers when it hosts Detroit on Monday night at Lambeau Field.

NFL point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 21.2-19.0 Lions (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Lions can cover the spread

The Lions started this season 3-1 but are now trying to snap a three-game losing streak after falling to Pittsburgh 20-15 in Week 8. Detroit led that game 12-10 at halftime but gave up a 97-yard Ben Roethlisberger touchdown pass late in the third quarter and couldn't come up with an answer.

On the night, the Lions piled up 482 yards of offense, but five drives that penetrated the Steelers' red zone resulted in just nine Detroit points. The Lions also went just two-for-14 on 3rd-down and 4th-down conversions, got nothing on three plays from the Pittsburgh 1-yard line in the third quarter and lost an unforced fumble at the Steelers' 24 in the fourth.

Prior to that, Detroit rallied from way down at New Orleans to within one score with plenty of time on the clock, but the Lions ran out of gas in a 52-38 Week 6 defeat. In Week 5, they rallied late against Carolina but fell just short at 27-24. Detroit might want to try playing with a lead sometime.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers gave a good effort in their first game with Brett Hundley at quarterback, but they lost to a hot New Orleans team in Week 7 26-17. They then had last week off to heal and get their new QB some practice reps.

Green Bay actually drove their opening possession against the Saints 75 yards to a touchdown and led 17-16 early in the fourth quarter. But the defense tired and the offense went cold as the Packers gave up the final 10 points of the game.

Green Bay ran the ball for 181 yards against New Orleans, as rookie running back Aaron Jones produced his second 100-yard effort in the last three games. And the defense kept the Packers in the game with a couple of picks off Drew Brees. But a limited playbook hampered several Green Bay possessions.

It's not always the case, but the bye week came at a great time for the banged-up Packers.

Smart pick

The Lions own advantages at quarterback and with their run defense, and while they have trouble against the pass, Green Bay's air attack was almost non-existent against New Orleans. Smart money here likes the Lions.

NFL betting trends

The Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road against the Packers.

The Packers are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games at home.

The total has gone over in 11 of the Packers' last 14 games.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.