Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Atlanta Falcons (4-3) will play their first divisional game of the season on Sunday when they visit the Carolina Panthers (5-3) as small road underdogs at the sportsbooks. The Falcons started the season with three straight games against NFC North foes and then followed that with four in a row versus the AFC East.

NFL point spread: The Panthers opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 25.1-18.5 Panthers (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta has to be somewhat relieved to finally be playing an opponent the team is familiar with, especially after a rough stretch against the AFC East. The Falcons earned a 25-20 win over the New York Jets last week but failed to cover the spread based on the closing number of minus-6.5.

Still, they ended a three-game skid that included losses to the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins at home and to the New England Patriots on the road. Atlanta is the defending NFC South champion, though, and Carolina is 2-6 straight up in its last eight divisional games.

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers ended a two-game losing streak themselves with a 17-3 victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday and then traded wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin to the Bills for draft picks on Tuesday. There were some injury concerns about Benjamin (32 catches for 475 yards), and now Devin Funchess will take over his role in the offense.

Carolina returns home following back-to-back road games that the team split and has gone 8-2-1 against the spread in its previous 11 under that scenario.

Smart pick

The Falcons are riding a 10-game winning streak against NFC teams, going 8-2 ATS during that stretch. They still have an excellent shot to repeat as division champs since they still play every team in the NFC South twice.

As Panthers Wire's Tim Weaver documented, some of the Panthers did not appear to like the Benjamin deal, so it will be interesting to see if they are more or less motivated without him around. Even though he was injured a lot, Benjamin was the big target quarterback Cam Newton needs with tight end Greg Olsen (foot) still out. Funchess has yet to really prove himself, so look for Atlanta to limit him and win.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in six of the Falcons' last eight games against the Panthers.

The visiting team is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games in this matchup.

The Falcons are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the NFC.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.