NFL Predictions Week 6: Last-Minute Picks and Advice for Sunday's Schedule

Week 6 NFL lines show oddsmakers moving in a bolder direction.

Those in charge of coming up with the odds around contests each week had a cautious start to the year, with minimal games featuring big spreads. That makes sense when one remembers the league's kickoff game featured the Kansas City Chiefs walking all over the New England Patriots in Foxborough, Massachusetts.

But Week 6 seems like the sweet spot for the league figuring out its identity. Contenders have announced their arrivals over consistent play, and the pretenders have started to fade.

Big lines can be as tricky as close ones, though, so let's take a look at the schedule and dive deeper on three games.

NFL Week 6 Schedule, Odds

Chicago at Baltimore (-7) | O/U 39.5

Cleveland at Houston (-10)  | O/U 46.5

Detroit at New Orleans (-4)  | O/U 51

Green Bay (-3.5) at Minnesota  | O/U n/a

Miami at Atlanta (-13)  | O/U 47

New England (-10) at N.Y. Jets  | O/U 47.5

San Francisco at Washington (-11)  | O/U 46.5

L.A. Rams at Jacksonville (-2.5)  | O/U 42.5

Tampa Bay (-2) at Arizona  | O/U 44.5

L.A. Chargers at Oakland (-3.5)  | O/U n/a

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (-4.5)  | O/U 45.5

N.Y. Giants at Denver (-12)  | O/U 40

Indianapolis at Tennessee  | O/U n/a

Bold denotes predicted winner against the spread and over/under projection. 

Miami at Atlanta (-13)

This is an example of a huge line bettors should be all over. 

While this one has done nothing but grow as the game approaches, it's still a safe situation.  

Bettors can thank the Miami Dolphins. Losses to the New York Jets and New Orleans Saints by a total of 40-6 doesn't look great. Nor does the fact neither of the team's wins came by more than six points. The defense has only 10 sacks and no interceptions, and Jay Ajayi—a breakout running back from a year ago—has averaged 3.4 yards per carry and has yet to score.

Then there's quarterback. The Jay Cutler experiment has backfired, as some thought it might, with the embattled veteran throwing three touchdowns and as many interceptions over four games. The team has heard enough from fans that head coach Adam Gase had to address it with the media ahead of the game against the Atlanta Falcons.

"I will make the decision on the quarterback," Gase told the press. "We're not going to take a public poll."

Contrast this outlook with the hosting Atlanta Falcons. The team is 3-1 coming off a bye, and while Week 4 was a 23-17 loss to an upstart Buffalo Bills squad, quarterback Matt Ryan and the offense have still done enough to win games.

Perhaps more surprising is the Atlanta defense, which has only permitted 93 rushing yards and 22.3 points per game. Holding Aaron Rodgers to two touchdowns and an interception on 50 attempts in a 34-23 dismissal of the Green Bay Packers is leagues more difficult than slowing a visiting Dolphins team with quarterback issues—making this a simple pick.

Prediction: Falcons 35, Dolphins 20

New England (-10) at N.Y. Jets

Based on the mention of the Patriots in the intro, one could understand if this were one of the gameweek's tougher calls.

The New York Jets are one of the hotter teams in football, at least in terms of hype because the team is winning games. It's like the momentum for the Jacksonville Jaguars—the teams haven't won for so long it happens to make headlines when they do.

But Week 6 should see the continued correction of the league thanks to this game.

Jets fans might want to look away. The team is a fluke, with three wins coming against those struggling Dolphins, the Jaguars and the Cleveland Browns. A 21-12 loss to the Buffalo Bills and a 45-20 whipping at the hands of the Oakland Raiders are more in line with what sort of team this is.

Which isn't to say fans shouldn't be happy. But a Josh McCown-led offense, with his five touchdowns and four interceptions and lack of weapons around him, isn't going to keep this rolling against tougher competition. And despite the easy schedule over three weeks, the Jets almost bottom out by allowing an average of 143 rushing yards per game.

As much as the Jets have been a product of the hype machine, so too has the alleged demise of the Patriots. A loss to the Chiefs doesn't look bad in hindsight considering how good they are, and wins on the road against the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren't easy tasks. Losing by three to an NFC contender like the Carolina Panthers isn't a major ordeal, either.

Granted, the Patriots defense looks worse than usual. But how much the schedule plays into this (Chiefs, Drew Brees andCam Newton) is interesting. As is the fact bettors know they can trust Bill Belichick to sort issues out.

Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, with 11 touchdowns and one interception despite tight end Rob Gronkowski ranking fourth on the team in targets. The Patriots will keep rolling here against an overachieving team they know how to exploit on both sides of the football.

Prediction: Patriots 30, Jets 13

L.A. Chargers at Oakland (-3.5)

One gets the sense this line would be one of the gameweek's bigger offerings if the Oakland Raiders had known the fate of quarterback Derek Carr earlier.

But we now know Carr is cleared to play, per Michael Gehlken of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, so bettors should be all over this.

After all, the Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the worst teams in football. Winning by five points in Week 5 against an even worse New York Giants team to pick up their first victory of the season doesn't change much for this outlook.

The Raiders are a different story in this regard. The team was competitive in a 16-10 loss to the Denver Broncos when Carr went down, and it could have turned out differently. There wasn't a reason other than Carr's injury to lose to a struggling Baltimore Ravens team in 30-17 fashion while EJ Manuel put up a 13-of-26 mark for 159 yards and a score.

"When you watch it from the sidelines, it is really hard," Carr said, according to Stats LLC (via ESPN.com). "To sit here and see certain looks and see thing going on with all those kind of things...we just have to be more efficient."

Carr's participation changes the complexion of the offense, especially against a soft run defense. Those Chargers allow a league-worst mark of 161.2 rushing yards per game, meaning Carr's threat should have Marshawn Lynch teeing off on some huge runs.

Even sans the absence of big runs by the Raiders, Los Angeles won't have enough offensive firepower on the road to compensate against a team that swept it last year and is desperate to get back in the playoff race while the Chiefs run away with the AFC West.

Prediction: Raiders 28, Chargers 14

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.