NFL Predictions Week 6: Upset Picks and Projections

It's getting harder to pick upsets going into Week 6.  

Those who make picks outright or based on lines via oddsmakers know October is when things start to even out for the NFL. The best teams adapt with more than a month of film on record, and the talent gap between teams starts to make a difference. 

Some might point to Week 5 and suggest otherwise. But the Pittsburgh Steelers aren't going to lay an egg against the Jacksonville Jaguars each week, and teams like the Tennessee Titans and Oakland Raiders going down doesn't register much on the scale given the injuries to starting quarterbacks.  

Which isn't to say there are no viable upset picks on the schedule, against the spread or otherwise. Here's a look at the full Week 6 slate.  

NFL Week 6 Schedule, Odds

Philadelphia at Carolina (-3)  | O/U 45.5

Chicago at Baltimore (-6.5) | O/U 39.5

Cleveland at Houston (-10)  | O/U 46.5

Detroit at New Orleans (-4)  | O/U 51

Green Bay (-4) at Minnesota  | O/U n/a

Miami at Atlanta (-11)  | O/U 47

New England (-9.5) at N.Y. Jets  | O/U 47.5

San Francisco at Washington (-10)  | O/U 46.5

L.A. Rams at Jacksonville (-2.5)  | O/U 42.5

Tampa Bay (-2) at Arizona  | O/U 44.5

L.A. Chargers at Oakland  | O/U n/a

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (-4.5)  | O/U 45.5

N.Y. Giants at Denver (-11.5)  | O/U 40

Indianapolis at Tennessee  | O/U n/a

Bold denotes predicted winner against the spread and over/under projection. 

Cleveland at Houston (-10)

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This is a case of the spread not exactly matching what could unfold on the field. 

The Houston Texans have been all over the place this year, losing to Jacksonville, beating Tennessee but coming up short against New England and Kansas City. 

To make the consistency issues even worse, the team lost J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus for the season in Week 5, leaving the defense looking exposed.

It's a point many have touched on when it comes to this matchup, including ESPN's Dustin Fox: 

Granted, the Cleveland Browns have yet to win a game. But Kevin Hogan breathed life into the offense a week ago after rookie DeShone Kizer got benched, throwing two touchdowns and only misfiring three times. 

This is the same Cleveland team that almost took down Pittsburgh to start the season and now has No. 1 pick Myles Garrett, who put on a show in his debut with two sacks. 

Maybe the Browns don't win this one outright on the road thanks to the efforts of rookie signal-caller Deshaun Watson, who has 12 touchdowns against four interceptions with another pair of scores as a rusher. But the spread here seems like too much, and those picking it should feel comfortable with the risk. 

Prediction: Texans 23, Browns 17

Detroit at New Orleans (-4)

Leon Halip/Getty Images

On paper, this looks like a tale of two teams heading in opposite directions. 

The Detroit Lions have lost two out of their last three. Losses to the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers by four points or less don't scream panic-button time, but it's still important to point out. The other corner of the ring features the New Orleans Saints, a team that has won two in a row, including a blowout of the Panthers at home. 

Yet if the difference between these two was so dramatic, oddsmakers would have a much bigger line on this with the Saints playing in the dome, right? 

Maybe part of this is rumblings about an injury to Matthew Stafford, something NFL Network's Ian Rapoport addressed recently: 

The fact is, it's hard to avoid getting excited about picking against the Saints defense. One would think the unit has improved over the course of two consecutive wins, but shutting out the hapless Miami Dolphins and forcing turnovers against a rusty Cam Newton still working his way back from shoulder surgery paints the performances in a different light. 

Detroit won't bottle up Drew Brees, but the offense has held three opponents to 23 points or less. Stafford has looked like his usual self, too, throwing nine touchdowns against one interception while hitting six different targets for scores. 

Stafford orchestrates one of the few offenses that can keep pace with a Brees-led attack, as it did a year ago in New Orleans when he tossed two touchdowns in a 28-13 win. This year's edition will feature more scoring, but the same result. 

Prediction: Lions 30, Saints 24

L.A. Rams at Jacksonville (-2.5)

Harry How/Getty Images

Something has to give in a battle between surprising teams. 

The Jaguars already got a nod above for besting the Steelers, a 30-9 affair in which an underrated defense had a coming out party with five interceptions of Ben Roethlisberger. Prior wins against Houston and the Baltimore Ravens had already hinted at the team being better than most would have guessed. 

Most of the breakout attention has gone to Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams, and for good reason. The sophomore has thrown seven touchdowns with three interceptions, two of the latter coming in Week 5 with the Seattle Seahawks in town. 

Before the deflating 16-10 loss, the Rams had won three of four, including a win on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. Not only does Goff look good with Todd Gurley in the backfield (seven total touchdowns) and Sammy Watkins at wideout (two), the addition of left tackle Andrew Whitworth has worked wonders for his progression. 

Not that Goff and the offense are satisfied. 

“We need to be sharper," Goff said, according to ESPN.com's Alden Gonzalez. "I can do a better job understanding what they're going to do better, I think, coming into it. And getting the ball out of my hands probably a little bit quicker would probably help. And then we need to make plays. We need to make plays all over the field."

But readers can see where this prediction is going. Jacksonville's wins have a fluky feel to them. Beating Houston in Week 1 while the Texans made a quarterback change is iffy. So is blowing away an underachieving Ravens team in London.

Speaking of underachieving, the Steelers losing while Blake Bortles only attempted 14 passes, throwing for 95 yards and a pick, says more about the Steelers than it does the Jaguars. 

Leonard Fournette has looked good for the Jaguars on his way to five touchdowns and a 4.3 per-carry average. But the Rams have a defense capable of putting more pressure on Bortles to produce, and he isn't winning a prove-it game against Goff. 

Prediction: Rams 24, Jaguars 20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.