Who Each NFL Cellar-Dweller Should Take If They Land No. 1 Draft Pick
The 2018 NFL draft is still six about months away. By the time the commissioner announces the No. 1 pick in a to-be-determined city, about three new iPhones will have been released, the new Star Wars film will have become old news and you'll have endured rants from your politically charged uncle at Thanksgiving, Christmas and Easter.
But time flies in this league, and impatient, frustrated fans of disappointing teams are already beginning to realize their squads could wind up with a high draft pick. Perhaps even the highest of them all.
Some of those fans may also be wondering what might happen if indeed that comes to fruition. We're here to provide a sneak peek, starting with a look at the final batch of NFL teams that have yet to win more than one game through five weeks.
There are only a handful of them, and they've all been especially terrible thus far.
Let's check out all five, ranked by their odds of winding up with the worst record in football (and thus the top selection). And while we're at it, let's make way-too-early projections for who they'd take in that scenario.
Cleveland Browns (0-5)
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Odds they land the top pick: 3-1
The Cleveland Browns aren't even close being competitive right now. They aren't even in competitive's galaxy. Though their three AFC North rivals haven't lit the world on fire this year, each of them has already crushed Cleveland. The Browns also lost to a bad Colts team and a worse Jets team, which makes it hard to see a win anywhere on their remaining schedule.
Rookie second-round pick DeShone Kizer performed well enough in the preseason to give Cleveland some hope at quarterback, but he's off to a uniquely terrible start. As a result, head coach Hue Jackson announced Wednesday that Kevin Hogan will start in place of him against the Houston Texans in Week 6.
The Browns have a new-look roster, so it might take some time for them to establish chemistry. Their revamped offensive line could still become an asset, and top pick Myles Garrett appears poised to make an impact on defense after he missed the first four games with a high ankle sprain. However, that might not be enough to help the Browns win more than a few games between now and the end of the year.
Who they should pick: UCLA QB Josh Rosen
If the Browns do wind up with the NFL's worst record, that likely doesn't bode well for Kizer's odds of succeeding down the road. And after punting on chances to draft Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott, among others, they Browns can't afford to keep waiting to swing on an early first-round QB.
They know how badly they need a franchise signal-caller, Browns owner Jimmy Haslam told Peter King of The MMQB over the summer, especially if Kizer isn't panning out and they've already committed so many picks and so much money to other positions.
"There's nothing that compares to it. You need a great starting pitcher, a great closer in baseball. You need a great point guard in basketball. But there's not one position that comes anywhere close in sports, I don't think, to quarterback in football. If you ask any one of our football people, they'd all say getting the quarterback right is number one. I can tell you this: It's on the top of our list daily. Once you get that, the game's much easier."
It's impossible to know right now which quarterback will emerge as the favorite for No. 1 overall between Rosen and USC's Sam Darnold, but Rosen looks like the more polished, NFL-ready option. And since the Browns appear to be getting low on patience, that might make more sense here.
San Francisco 49ers (0-5)
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Odds they land the top pick: 6-1
Both the Browns and the San Francisco 49ers are winless entering Week 6, but the latter is showing more signs of life than the former. In the last four weeks, San Francisco lost by three points in Seattle, lost to the Rams by two points and fell in overtime in Arizona and Indianapolis. All four were winnable games, which indicates it's likely only a matter of time before Kyle Shanahan's team starts running into victories.
The Niners probably will win at least a few, which could keep them out of the top spot of the draft. But they're still rebuilding on both sides of the ball, quarterback Brian Hoyer is the fourth-lowest-rated qualified passer in the league and they've lost 19 of their last 21 games. So I'm telling you there's a (1-in-6) chance.
Who they should pick: USC QB Sam Darnold
If the Browns or 49ers wind up with the top pick, they each would be pushing it by once again not selecting a quarterback. We'll go with Darnold to the 49ers because the new regime there might have enough leash to let the the less developed, higher-ceiling quarterback slowly reach his potential.
Regardless, it would be surprising if the Niners didn't take one of those two guys or another top quarterback prospect such as Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph or Wyoming's Josh Allen. That's the next piece of the puzzle in San Francisco, where they've already built most of the defense back up but Hoyer isn't cutting it under center.
Chicago Bears (1-4)
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Odds they land the top pick: 8-1
The Chicago Bears have a win under their belt, and they put up valiant fights against Atlanta and Minnesota. That's why they're a long shot for the No. 1 pick, but rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is now the starter, and it's clear he has a long way to go.
Trubisky is also severely lacking weapons in the receiving game, and a toothless defense has just three takeaways through five weeks. While the Bears remain a contender for the top selection, they host both the 49ers and Browns in December. They'll likely be favored in both of those games, and wins in both likely would cost them the chance to have their pick of the litter in the draft.
Who they should pick: Penn State RB Saquon Barkley
The Bears can't afford to give up on Trubisky one year after trading up to draft him second overall, regardless of how much the raw North Carolina product struggles over the next three months. Instead, it's time to give Trubisky more weapons.
Right now, this draft class doesn't appear to have a receiver worthy of the No. 1 overall pick, and Chicago has two exciting young running backs in Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen.
The Bears could decide to select the best non-quarterback available, and a trade could be a strong possibility here as well. But for now, we'll give them Barkley because he might be the top prospect in this class. These days, teams need as many talented ball-carriers as possible.
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New York Giants (0-5)
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Odds they land the top pick: 12-1
Even with Odell Beckham Jr. sidelined, the New York Giants are too talented to finish with the league's worst record. Wilder things have happened in this league, and their 0-5 record gives them a shot, especially if they lay down now that their season is effectively over.
But Eli Manning is still their quarterback, and their defense was one of the best in football last season.
Their last three losses have come by a combined total of just 10 points, so the law of averages suggests they're due for a victory soon. They'll beat the Rams, 49ers or Cardinals and likely won't go 0-6 in the wide-open NFC East, which should be enough to keep them out of the top spot in the draft.
Who they should pick: Washington OT Trey Adams
The Giants haven't won a playoff game in six years and Manning will be 37 in January, so tearing it all down and rebuilding with a potential new franchise quarterback like Darnold or Rosen isn't a bad option. But with Beckham still under contract entering his prime and that defense still loaded with expensive talent, they'll likely try to give Manning more support for one more championship run before the window closes.
Barkley could be the guy for that, but Adams has the ability to step in and bolster Manning's pass protection immediately. Bookend offensive tackles Ereck Flowers and Bobby Hart aren't getting the job done, and Adams appears to possess the size, athleticism and resume to provide an immediate upgrade.
Los Angeles Chargers (1-4)
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Odds they land the top pick: 15-1
Like the Giants, the Los Angeles Chargers are better on paper than their record. The games aren't played on paper, but it suggests regression to the mean is possible. And unlike the Giants, Browns and 49ers, the Bolts at least have a victory under their belt.
Three of their four losses came by a combined total of just seven points, which is classic Chargers. It's also another indication that the law of averages will give them a chance to win more close games this year.
They've been hit hard (again) by injuries, but a team with Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates, Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram and Casey Hayward isn't about to post the worst record in the NFL.
Among the five remaining teams with fewer than two wins, they're by far the biggest long shot.
Who they should pick: Rosen
If the Chargers do land the top selection, they'd have a lot of thinking to do. They could double down on this talented but constantly underachieving roster and draft Adams to shore up an oft-maligned offensive line. Status quo plus a player like Barkley or Alabama cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick would also align with that approach.
But Rivers might not have a lot left as he approaches 36, and the window isn't closing for many other spots on that roster. The Chargers might be capable of avoiding a rebuild by allowing Rivers to groom an heir apparent for a year or two, if that. Rosen is less of a wild card for a team that could want to expedite that transition, and he's a local legend as well.
Dishonorable Mentions
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As for the last-place teams that still have managed to win multiple games thus far...
Miami Dolphins (2-2, 30-1 odds)
The Dolphins are technically all alone in last place in the AFC East, but they're 2-2, have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and their defense has often been outstanding. It would take an organizational blowup, but you never know.
Who they should pick: Alabama DB Minkah Fitzpatrick
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill will be returning to a solidified offense, and they're strong up front on D. The secondary could use a versatile game-changer, though.
New Orleans Saints (2-2, 40-1 odds)
The Saints are in a similar boat as Miami: last place despite a .500 record. But they've won back-to-back road games and they always win at least a half-dozen games with Drew Brees running the show.
Who they should pick: Darnold
Brees turns 39 in January. It's time to give him his version of Jimmy Garoppolo.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2, 50-1 odds)
Tied with New Orleans, the Bucs haven't been quite right this season, but they have the talent to win 10-plus games. It would take something tremendous for them to finish in last place in their division, let alone the entire league.
Who they should pick: Barkley
Best available offensive player makes a lot of sense, although they could go with Adams if they're ready to move on from Donovan Smith at left tackle.
Indianapolis Colts (2-3, 50-1 odds)
Franchise quarterback Andrew Luck remains on the sideline as he recovers from offseason shoulder surgery. Since the Colts have managed to win twice without him, they aren't likely to contend for the top selection. But until Luck takes the field, there'll be a remote chance this tied-for-last-place team completely tanks in October, November and December.
Who they should pick: Barkley
Rookie semi-sensation Marlon Mack could change this, but they need to surround Luck with more support.
Tennessee Titans (2-3, 50-1 odds)
It's far too early for the Titans to panic, especially since it doesn't appear as though quarterback Marcus Mariota's hamstring injury is a long-term matter. However, Mariota has been injury-prone to date, and Tennessee has already posted three ugly losses this season.
Who they should pick: Fitzpatrick
The best strategy would be to take the top defensive player on the board. At the moment, that's Fitzpatrick, who possesses all of the tools required to become a superstar defensive back.
In case you're wondering where the Houston Texans are... Yes, they're tied for last place in the AFC South, but Houston already traded its 2018 first-round pick to move up and take Deshaun Watson in 2017. It's safe to say they're cool with that decision. Besides, there's almost no way they wind up with the worst record in football.
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