NFL Predictions Week 5: Odds, Spread and Picks for Entire Schedule

One of the top matchups of Week 5 is an encounter between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans, which also happens to feature a pair of potential Rookie of the Year candidates. 

Both the Chiefs with breakout back Kareem Hunt and the Texans with Deshaun Watson have been pleasant surprises this year, the former for being downright dominant on the way to looking like the best team in the league and the latter for being better than expected in a poor division. 

Both are good examples of where playing odds have provided problems for would-be bettors so far. Other examples most will point to, of course, are the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets sitting on 2-2 records. 

For those who want to pounce on last-second lines, here is a full look at the offerings from oddsmakers. 

NFL Week 5 Schedule, Odds

Arizona at Philadelphia (-6.5) | O/U 45

Buffalo at Cincinnati (-3) | O/U 39

Carolina at Detroit (-3) | O/U 43.5

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-8) | O/U 44

L.A. Chargers at N.Y. Giants (-3.5) | O/U 44.5

N.Y. Jets (-1) at Cleveland | O/U 39

San Francisco at Indianapolis (-1.5) | O/U 44

Tennessee (-3) at Miami | O/U n/a

Baltimore at Oakland (-3) | O/U n/a

Seattle at L.A. Rams (-1.5) | O/U 47

Green Bay at Dallas (-2) | O/U 52

Kansas City (-1) at Houston | O/U n/a

Minnesota (-3) at Chicago | O/U n/a

Bold denotes predicted winner against the spread and over/under projection. 

Line to Take: Seattle at L.A. Rams (-1.5)

There are a handful of reasons this one opened with the visitors as the favorites before shifting to the hosts—and bettors who want a safe angle should be all over this. 

The Los Angeles Rams are 3-1 and one of the better teams in football, as odd as it might seem to type, read or otherwise digest. The team has had some cupcake matchups against Indianapolis and San Francisco, but going to Dallas and taking down the Cowboys isn't a very Rams thing to do. 

Alas, here are the Rams, with coach Sean McVay at the controls of an offense featuring new weapons like Sammy Watkins and a new left tackle with Andrew Whitworth that have changed the narrative for quarterback Jared Goff, who has seven touchdowns and one interception. 

In short, it means the visiting Seattle Seahawks are in trouble. The Seahawks are in trouble most times they have to travel—hence two road losses in as many tries this year and a road loss last year to the Rams, who won four games. And the year before. And the year before that. 

Perhaps the biggest oddity of all around this matchup is how rough the 2-2 Seahawks look this year. Russell Wilson's team had the similar cupcake matchups to start the year and barely got past San Francisco, 12-9. 

Speaking of Wilson, he's suffering behind one of the league's worst offensive lines, having already absorbed 10 sacks and endless pressure. The running game isn't exactly relieving pressure as it juggles names, nor is a talented on-paper defense helping with only nine sacks. 

This is a detailed way of saying the Rams are going to escape with a win here in one of the weekend's more predictable outcomes. Goff and the Rams will have enough firepower to pull away at home while beating the Seahawks in their own preferred style. 

Prediction: Rams 23, Seahawks 17

Line to Avoid: L.A. Chargers at N.Y. Giants (-3.5)

Abbie Parr/Getty Images

This is a major "must avoid" week. The New York Jets and Cleveland Browns collide. So do San Francisco and Indianapolis. Oakland and Tennessee both have injury questions at quarterback, and Monday Night Football features an unpredictable rookie signal-caller. 

Then there is the battle between winless Los Angeles Chargers and New York Giants teams. 

A fun knee-jerk reaction here is to cite the Chargers as a bad road team and move on to the next line. But there are layers worth analyzing this year, such as the Giants look like one of the absolute worst teams in the league. Those Chargers at least have come up short by three points or less in three out of four games. 

Said close losses include going down to the Denver Broncos (3-1) and Philadelphia Eagles (3-1), the former on the road. Philip Rivers only has six touchdowns to four interceptions, but he's attempted 150 passes already to try to compensate for a defense missing an embarrassing amount of tackles. 

"It's too many yards, simple as that," safety Tre Boston said, according to ESPN.com's Eric D. Williams. "We have to get better at tackling everywhere."

Not that the Giants look much better. Eli Manning has the same touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio and doesn't have a Melvin Gordon behind him. Instead, he has a rushing game averaging 3.2 yards per carry and Odell Beckham Jr. only sitting on one touchdown. 

Los Angeles' weakness comes on the ground (163.5 yards per game permitted), not through the air (192.0). The Giants simply don't have the personnel to exploit this, and the combo of Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa will have Manning running for his life most of the afternoon. 

Prediction: Chargers 28, Giants 20 

Flip a Coin: Kansas City (-1) at Houston  

Let's dive deeper into the game mentioned in the intro. 

Most expected the Chiefs to be good this year, but not "marching into Foxborough and winning" good. Alex Smith has eight touchdowns with no interceptions and keyed the 42-27 laugher against the Patriots before beating all other opponents by a minimum of seven points. 

It helps the aforementioned Hunt, a third-round rookie, already has 502 yards and four scores on a 7.4 yard-per-carry average. The performances put him next to some big names, per SportsCenter: 

Then there's Watson, the No. 12 pick who spurred the Texans to a win against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2 via a big rushing touchdown. He had six passing scores over his previous two outings, a three-point loss to the Patriots on the road and a 57-14 dismantling of the Tennessee Titans. 

"They're giving him things that play to his strengths as he learns, as he learns the NFL. It's some of the things he did in college, so there's a certain comfort level. They're managing that whole thing very well," Chiefs coach Andy Reid said, according to Williams' colleague, Adam Teicher. 

He, too, joins some prestigious names, per ESPN Stats and Info: 

Something has to give here, though it's worth noting the hosts boast a defense allowing 95.5 rushing yards per game. If the unit can remain stout in that area while letting Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt fluster Smith into mistakes, there is an avenue for victory here. 

Oddsmakers clearly don't like this one either way. For bettors, going with the explosive rookie who can make big plays in all facets and swing games seems like the safer play. 

Prediction: Texans 23, Chiefs 20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.