Predicting Progression, Regression for New England Patriots' Top Players

As a team, the New England Patriots could hardly have asked for a better season in 2016. While things didn't go perfectly, the campaign still ended with the team lifting the Lombardi Trophy.

Winning another championship is obviously the team goal this season. How individual players perform is irrelevant—that's just the Patriot way. In today's fantasy-driven NFL culture, though, fans cannot help but pay attention to how individuals perform.

We're here to examine some of New England's top players and to try predicting whether they'll perform better or worse statistically than they did a season ago.

We'll be looking exclusively at players who were on New England's roster in 2016, so new additions such as Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore won't qualify. We also aren't factoring in potential future injuries since accurately predicting them is impossible.

With the regular season just over a month away, let's predict some progressions and regressions for the Patriots.

TE Rob Gronkowski, Progression

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Rob Gronkowski has proved himself to be one of the top tight ends in football—arguably of all time. Unfortunately, his biggest bane as a pro has been the injury bug. Last season, injuries limited him to just eight games, 540 yards and three touchdowns.

Gronkowski eventually shut down his season in order to undergo back surgery. This year, he should be back to 100 percent health and poised to shine.

"His attitude has been phenomenal," Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said of Gronkowski, per Mark Daniels of the Providence Journal. "He's been present in the building. He's here. You see him working very hard. The mindset is really where you want it to be."

Gronkowski probably won't average the ridiculous 21.6 yards per reception he averaged in 2016, but overall he should have a bigger stat line. Even if he misses a game or two, he should top 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns for the season.

QB Tom Brady, Regression

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In terms of passing yardage and touchdowns, quarterback Tom Brady should be more productive in 2017. He missed the first four weeks of last season due to suspension, so he'll have a month's worth of production to add to his stat total.

However, it's hard to see Brady truly outdoing the things he did in 2016. Last year, he produced 3,554 yards passing, 28 touchdowns and just two interceptions. As previously noted, the yardage and touchdowns should be up, but that touchdown-to-interception ratio is likely to fall—it's worth noting that last year's ratio was the best in league history.

In 2016, Brady posted a passer rating of 112.2,  and Pro Football Focus rated him first among all quarterbacks for the season. That passer rating is the second highest of Brady's career, behind the 117.2 posted during the memorable 2007 season.

Could Brady manage to top his passer rating from last season? Sure. However, the odds are that he won't also be the highest-rated quarterback in football two years in a row.

Expect Brady to still play at an elite level in 2017, but don't expect him to repeat the historic performance of 2016.

DE Trey Flowers, Progression

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Defensive end Trey Flowers amassed 45 tackles last season and led the Patriots in sacks with 7.0. While his tackle total may not really change, there are a couple of reasons why we should see improvement from him as a pass-rusher.

The first is that Flowers is essentially entering Year 2. He was a rookie in 2015 but only appeared in one game due to injury. As a practical matter, he should be in store for a second-year jump as an NFL player.

Another reason is that the Patriots brought in pass-rushers to help complement the 23-year-old and take attention away from him. New England traded for Kony Ealy and drafted edge-rusher Derek Rivers in the third round. Opposing teams shouldn't be able to focus quite as much on slowing Flowers.

The third factor here is the addition of Gilmore. He's a Pro Bowler who will be playing opposite a second-team All-Pro in Malcolm Butler. Opposing quarterbacks will have to decide which one to test when considering their top two wideouts. This could often cause hesitation, giving Flowers more opportunities to reach home.

Flowers should reach double-digit sacks this season.

RB James White, Regression

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Running back James White was the hero of Super Bowl LI. He was also a major piece of New England's passing attack during the regular season. While he only totaled 166 yards rushing, he added 60 receptions for 551 yards and five touchdowns.

I don't believe White will be utilized quite as much in the passing game this season. Brady will have plenty of other targets, including new ones such as Cooks, Dwayne Allen and a healthy Gronkowski.

White will also be competing for backfield time with newcomers Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee.

Burkhead and Gillislee will likely combine to handle the lead-back duties held by LeGarrette Blount last season. Blount wasn't much of a pass-catcher—he had just seven receptions in 2016—so either White or Dion Lewis was often brought in to replace him in passing situations.

Burkhead is a capable receiver—the Cincinnati Bengals even used him in the slot at times—and he probably won't come off the field as much in passing situations.

The other thing to remember is that Lewis only appeared in seven regular-season games last year. If he's healthy, he'll cut into White's opportunities as well.

White will probably still get a handful of rushing attempts, but his receptions could drop from 60 to something closer to the 40 he produced in 2015.

WR Malcolm Mitchell, Progression

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As a rookie, wide receiver Malcolm Mitchell managed to earn the trust of Brady. He became a regular target late in the season and was a definite factor in Super Bowl LI. He caught six passes for 70 yards in the big game. For the season, he produced 32 receptions for 401 yards and four scores.

Expect Mitchell to produce even more in 2017. Yes, he'll be yielding opportunities to newcomer Cooks and a healthy Gronkowski. He'll also be a regular contributor for the entire season, too, which should allow him to improve on last year's stat total. He should be one of the regular outside receivers when Julian Edelman moves into the slot.

"I like Mitchell to shine on the outside on the opposite side of Cooks," Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports wrote this offseason. "Remember, he overcame early injuries to still become a regular in this offense by midseason, and I believe he can double last season's output of 32 catches for 401 yards and four touchdowns."

I don't quite believe Mitchell will double last year's production, but 600 yards and a half-dozen scores should be attainable.

Patrick Chung, Regression

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Strong safety Patrick Chung has been a member of the Patriots for seven of the past eight seasons. He's played pretty well over the past few years, too. However, his overall play did take a significant step back in 2016.

Statistically, Chung was solid. He racked up 91 tackles, a sack and an interception. However, he was often a liability in coverage. Pro Football Focus rated him as the third-worst safety in the league last season.

Chung's statistical production could dip this season because he could lose playing time to four-year veteran Duron Harmon. He emerged in a big way last season while playing both safety positions. Harmon finished the year rated 28th overall among safeties by Pro Football Focus.

The Patriots obviously have Harmon in their future plans. He was the recipient of a new four-year, $17 million deal this offseason. He's more than three years younger than Chung, and if Harmon continues to play more efficiently, Chung's playing time could take a hit.

Chung's 91 tackles in 2016 were the second-most of his career. Don't expect him to reach that number again.

Duron Harmon, Progression

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If Chung is going to take a step back in the production department due to the emergence of Harmon, then we have to list Harmon as a progression player.

One of the biggest reasons to believe Harmon will have a more productive season in 2017 is the fact he has shown the ability to excel at both safety positions. Not only can he spell Chung he can spell free safety Devin McCourty as well.

In 2016, Harmon racked up 29 tackles, two passes defended and an interception. He should be able to top 50 tackles and snag a couple of interceptions in 2017. Don't be surprised if he pushes for a starting role toward the end of the season, either. There's a chance that the 26-year-old will be the future at the strong safety position.

Chung will turn 30 before the start of the season and while he has two years remaining on his current contract, he has just $800,000 in dead cap remaining for the 2018 season.

If the Patriots decide to part ways with Chung and make Harmon the starter at strong safety, they can definitely afford to do so.

*All contract information via Spotrac.com.