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MLB Trade Deadline 2017: Complete Predictions 1 Week from Deadline Day

Zachary D. RymerJul 24, 2017

There's one week left until Major League Baseball's July 31 non-waiver trade deadline; that's plenty of time for things to occur.

Here are a few predictions about whatย will happen.

To be exact, there are eight of them ahead. Not all have to do with trades that will be made. Some cover trades thatย won'tย happen. But the list mostly consists of the former. And don't worry, big names and big teams abound.

Going in no particular order, let's get to it.

Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Verlander Stay Put

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The two biggest names twirling around the rumor mill are Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Verlander, but don't count on either to come across the transaction wire.

The Miami Marlins' slugger and the Detroit Tigers' ace are each owed a lot of money. Verlander has $28 million annual salaries through 2019, while Stanton's contract has 10 years and $295 million remaining on it after 2017.

Verlander's deal is the more movable of the two, of course. But he's also a well-worn 34-year-old with a 4.54 ERA this season and hardly the lone ace on the market.

So, the report from Bob Nightengale ofย USA Today that the Tigers aren't "remotely close" to dealing Verlander? That adds up.

Meanwhile, reports from Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports and Buster Olney of ESPN cast plenty of doubt on Stanton being moved. Because the Marlins aren't shy about dealing franchise players, it's understandable if these reports raise a skeptical eyebrow. Nonetheless, they also add up.

With a .934 OPS and 30 homers, the 27-year-old is reminding everyone how much of a stud he is when he's healthy.ย But between his money, no-trade clause and opt-out after 2020, how exactly Miami would move Stanton's contract is a mystery. Odds are it won't be solved this summer.

Royals and Pirates Stand Pat, Go for It

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When it comes to teams with multiple trade chips, few can match the Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates.ย Yet neither will sell.

The Royals have four rentals (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Jason Vargas) plenty of teams would love to get their hands on. And with a 50-47 record, Kansas City is short of its vintage form.

It's too close to the playoffs to back off, however. The Royals own the second wild-card spot and are only 1.5 games out in the American League Central. And while it recently looked like they were fading, they've since picked up the pace with five straight wins.

Pirates players who've been featured in rumors are Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole and Josh Harrison. They've each been an All-Star at least once and are under contract beyond 2017.

But that means there's no hurry for Pittsburgh to deal them. And in winning 12 of its last 16 games, it's gotten right back into the National League Central race. Which, by the way, is the only National League race that's still up for grabs.

So, that's that. How about some deals thatย will happen, eh?

With 3B Option in Hand, Red Sox Settle for AJ Ramos

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This prediction was originally conceived as a larger deal in which the Boston Red Sox received both Martin Pradoย and AJ Ramos from the Marlins.

So much for that. Prado has since landed on the disabled list for the third time this season, and the Red Sox are handingย top prospect Rafael Devers the keys to third base.

Boston, however, could still use Ramos.

Many teams could, mind you. And indeed, Heyman has reported the Red Sox are just one team of many with interest in the right-hander. There will be competition.

Boston should rise above the fray, however, because Devers' promotion can knock their list of needs down to one item: an impact reliever. With a 2.64 ERA and 10.7 K/9 rate since 2014, Ramos fits the bill.

Free passes are his vice, as he's averaged 4.7 walks per nine innings over that time. But a simple change of scenery could fix that. According to StatCorner's metrics, Miami catchers J.T. Realmuto and A.J. Ellis are two of the worst framers in the league. Boston catchers Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon are two of the better ones.

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Mariners Swoop in for Yonder Alonso

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Behold a prediction of the bold variety.ย 

The Seattle Mariners supposedly aren't looking for offense. Rumor has it they're focused on starting pitching. As well they should be, given the 4.76 ERA they're getting from their starters.

But regarding his options, general manager Jerry Dipoto was candid.

"We have talked to every team in the league regarding starting pitching and theย demand greatly exceeds the supply," Dipoto said, per Greg Johns of MLB.com.ย 

And with slugging prospect Tyler O'Neill gone to the St. Louis Cardinals, Dipoto has one less chip to barter with. That's not going to help.

In lieu of paying a price to upgrade a weakness, the next-best thing the Mariners can do is add to a strength. Theirs is their offense, but it's missing a first baseman. Only two teams have a lower OPS at the not-so-hot corner.

Yonder Alonso, currently of the Oakland A's and masher of 21 dingers, could fix that. And sinceย Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the New York Yankees are alone in the bidding and submitting suboptimal offers, there's an opportunity for Dipoto to swoop in.

And when opportunity knocks, he tends to answer.

Sonny Gray Will Be a Brewer

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Speaking of trades involving A's stars, Sonny Gray will soon be a Milwaukee Brewer.

The Houston Astros are perhaps the biggest player in the Gray sweepstakes, but their incentive to deal is decreasing.

With Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh back healthy, Dallas Keuchel on his way and Lance McCullers Jr., Brad Peacock and Mike Fiers already in place, the Astros are stocked with starters. They certainly have more than enough arms to seal an American League West title that's pretty much in the bag.

That doesn't mean Houston couldn't use another impact starter. But with Gray's price boosted by his controllability through 2019, the cost exceeds the benefits.

The Brewers, on the other hand, are suddenly in a fight for the NL Central. They'd have a better chance of winning it if they added Gray, who's been scorchingย of late.

That's not the only reason a report byย Bob Nightengale ofย USA Todayย that stated Milwaukee "may be the most aggressive team" going after Gray rings true.

It has enough prospects to get him, and his controllability is proper incentive to do it. It wouldn't be a case of the Brew Crew putting all their chips in a season that might be too good to be true.

The Astros 'Settle' for Yu Darvish

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No Gray, no problem. The Astros can turn around and acquire Yu Darvish from the Texas Rangers.

Following their sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays, the Rangers are still very much alive in the American League wild-card race. But that may not guarantee Darvish stays in town. Demand for him rightfully seems to be through the roof, but he's a pending free agent. His availability shouldn't be a myth.

As for Houston, the notion that it doesn't need another starter to take it to October still holds. But an impact ace would help it get through October. Word is the Astros know this.

"My guess is, if they get a starter, it will be someone who starts a playoff game for them," an American League GM told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick.

Gray would do the trick, but his price is surely higher than Darvish's because of his controllability. And while dealing prospects to rent Darvish would be quite the gamble on Houston's part, it's just the team to take such a gamble.

Have you seen the Astros lately? They're already really good. Now imagine if they also had a pitcher with a 3.32 career ERA and 11.0 career K/9. Nobody could stand in their way.

Except, perhaps...

The Padres Lend the Dodgers a (Brad) Hand

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...the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have also been a juggernaut.

They did get some bad news Sunday, however. Three-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw left his start after just two innings with a back injury, per the team. According to Andy McCullough of theย Los Angeles Times, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts expects the lefty to land on the disabled list.

If it's as serious as the back injury that sidelined Kershaw for several months in 2016, Los Angeles could nix the Darvish-to-Houston idea. But thatย doesn't appear to be the case. Kershaw should (knock wood) be back in time for the postseason.

If so, the Dodgers will call the San Diego Padres and acquire Brad Hand to fill their only need.

Hand has emerged as an excellent left-handed reliever over the last two seasons, posting a 2.63 ERA and 11.4 K/9. And he's no mere lefty specialist; he dominates right-handed batters too.

According to Feinsand, Los Angeles knows it needs a pitcher like that to solidify the bridge to Kenley Jansen and has Hand on its list. His controllability through 2019 does jack up the price, but the Dodgers are well equipped and well incentivized to meet it.

After all, they know from experience how bad a thin bullpen can hurt in October. If they get Hand, their already great bullpenย will be anything but thin.

Nationals Take Heck-with-It Approach, Deal for Zach Britton

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Also on the topic of bullpens and their relation to the playoffs: The Washington Nationals could really use Zach Britton.

Their bullpen has been the pits in 2017, posting an MLB-worst 5.18 ERA. Their trade for Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson pushed things in the right direction but not enough to fix a problem of that magnitude.

Thus, MLB.com's Jamal Collierย wrote the Nationals would "still like to add to their bullpen."

According to Heyman, Washington has called the Baltimore Orioles about Britton and "would love" to get him. It's a dicey proposition because of the two clubs' perpetual legal bickering, but it's certainly possible that cooler heads could prevail.

Britton is a pristine trade chip that a bad Orioles team would be wise to cash in, and the Nats are a championship-hungry squad that might overpay.

And while Britton's 2017 has been marred by injury and a downtown in performance, it's too soon to disregard his utter dominance from 2014 to 2016.

The lefty is also controllable through next season. So if Washington were to trade for him, it'd add a missing link to an outstanding team that would be around for another go in 2018.

You know, just in case.

Data courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.

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