US Open Odds 2017: Predictions for Top Favorites Heading into Erin Hills

This is a moment of redemption for Dustin Johnson. As he comes to the U.S. Open at Erin Hills in Erin, Wisconsin, he has a big task in front of him.

Johnson won last year's U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club in Oakmont, Pennsylvania, and that was the first major victory of his career.

That win paved the way to Johnson's march to the No. 1 position in the golf rankings and the worldwide respect he has gotten for his prodigious power and all-around game.

However, there's something nagging at Johnson as he prepares to play the U.S. Open, which is usually the toughest setup of any PGA tournament.

Johnson wanted to show off his talents at the Masters in April, and he was the favorite to win the tournament. However, he took a fall on a staircase in the home he was renting prior to the tournament, and while his injuries were short-lived, they prevented him from playing when he was at his best.

Now he gets another opportunity at the U.S. Open, and he is once again the favorite to take home the title. Johnson comes into the tournament with odds of +750, according to OddsShark. That means a bettor who wagers $100 on Johnson would get his original wager back plus $750 if he can defend his title.

Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy both come into the tournament at +1,200; Jason Day is right behind them at +1,400. Jon Rahm has made a big splash on the tour this season and follows at +2,000, and those are the same odds held by Rickie Fowler.

Player, Odds (Courtesy of OddsShark)
Dustin Johnson, +750
Jordan Spieth, +1200
Rory McIlroy, +1200
Jason Day, +1400
Jon Rahm, +2000
Rickie Fowler, +2000
Justin Rose, +2200
Sergio Garcia, +2200
Hideki Matsuyama, +2800
Henrik Stenson, +2800

When Johnson is at his best, he is tough to beat. His distance off the tee is always one of his greatest strengths, but he is nearly as accomplished at homing in on the flagstick with his irons. When those two factors are working in concert and his putting is strong, Johnson has the ability to win and put distance between himself and the field.

Johnson ranks first in driving distance and greens reached in regulation, according to PGATour.com.

Spieth won the U.S. Open in 2015, and he believes that Erin Hills is a fairly designed course that gives players a chance to put together a solid score. 

"A winning score is definitely under par," Spieth said, per Brad Townsend of DallasNews.com. "Maybe five to 10, based on what we're seeing here so far."

Spieth does not get the same kind of distance as Johnson or the other big hitters on the tour, but he is accurate. He is averaging 291.6 yards per drive, which ranks 86th, but he takes advantage of his opportunities. He ranks second on the tour in birdies per round and scoring average.

McIlroy is a formidable player with all the elements needed to win the tournament once again. However, consistency has been an issue for McIlroy in the biggest events recently, and the 2011 U.S. Open champion needs to put it all together if he is going to win at Erin Hills.

McIlroy has some of the same issues that many amateurs face but on a much different scale. When he is driving the ball well off the tee, his approach game may be off. When his approaches are on target, his putting is an issue. When his putting is consistent, he may be spraying the ball off the tee.

When McIlroy has all the elements of his game working, he can be dynamic.

Day has not had his game together for much of the season, and he ranks 36th on the earnings list with a bit more than $1.6 million.

His big issues have been accuracy, both off the tee and on his approach shots. He ranks 145th in driving accuracy and 113th on reaching greens in regulation.

However, don't count out Day because Wisconsin is likely his favorite U.S. state. He won the PGA Championship in 2015 at Whistling Straits in Kohler, Wisconsin, with one of the most dominating major championship performances in recent memory. If he can come close to that, he should contend for the title.

LM Otero/Associated Press

Rahm has been on fire for much of the year, and he has the complete game to make a run at a major championship. Rahm ranks fourth in FedEx Cup points, fourth in earnings with nearly $4.5 million banked so far this year and is fifth on the tour with an average of 4.30 birdies per round.

Rahm has a win, two second-place finishes and a third-place finish in 15 tournaments this year and seven top-10 finishes. He has made the cut 14 times.

Predictions

Johnson is a powerful and motivated player, and we see him having an excellent run and taking the lead through the first three rounds of the tournament.

Rahm may be the player among the favorites who has the best chance of catching him. He will follow Johnson in the standings, but he won't be able to catch him on the final day of play.

Spieth will contend through the first two rounds, but he will slide back on moving day. McIlroy and Day are not consistent enough at this point to have a true opportunity to win the tournament.

Look for Hideki Matsuyama and Henrik Stenson to make a run at Johnson. However, the defending champion will come through with a strong final round, and Johnson will pick up his second consecutive U.S. Open title.

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All statistics and ranking are sourced from PGATour.com.