Target Trends: Increase, Decreases & More From Week Five

Increase Targets (excluding those with Week Four bye):

1. ‘Michael Clayton - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - +10
2. Eddie Royal - Denver Broncos - +9
2. Kellen Winslow - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - +9
4. Vernon Davis - San Francisco 49ers - +8
5. Miles Austin - Dallas Cowboys - +7
5. Jamal Charles - Kansas City Chiefs - +7

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers threw the ball 50 times this week, due to being down big to the Eagles early on (21-7 on the half).  I wouldn’t expect either Clayton or Winslow to continue to see these high target totals throughout the season.
• Davis is one of the main receivers for the 49ers, but with Michael Crabtree finally signing his focus in the offense could decrease in time.
• Royal has been one of the bigger disappointments, but Sunday could be his coming out party.  Obviously, 15 targets isn’t going to happen often, but it’s certainly nice to see him having a huge day.
• Austin certainly benefited from Roy Williams absence while Charles benefited from Larry Johnson’s inability.  Both could continue to have big days in the future.

Decrease in Targets:
1. Steve Smith - New York Giants - -12
2. Mike Sims-Walker - Jacksonville Jaguars - -11
2. Calvin Johnson - Detroit Lions - -11
4. Chris Cooley - Washington Redskins - -10
4. Derrick Mason - Tennessee Titans - -10

• Yes, Steve Smith saw a huge decrease in his focus in the offense, but the Giants just didn’t need him in their romp of the Raiders.  I wouldn’t be concerned.
• Sims-Walker didn’t get a look since he didn’t even suit up for the game.  He should return to a prime position in the offense assuming he can return from the suspension and there is no lingering problems.
• Johnson’s day ended abruptly due to injury.  Early word is that it is not a serious injury, so hopefully it will not affect him moving forward.
• An injury to Chris Samuels forced the Redskins to use Cooley more as a blocker.  He ultimately was not targeted a single time, so if Samuels cannot return to the field next week you are going to want to look elsewhere for a tight end.  While they’d have a week to game plan better, he becomes too big of a risk.
• Mason simply had a bad day, but I wouldn’t expect it to continue.  The Bengals defense was solid, forcing the Ravens to instead try to get the ball more to Ray Rice and Todd Heap.

Top Receivers Targeted:
1. Miles Austin - Dallas Cowboys - 15
1. Eddie Royal - Denver Broncos - 15
1. Wes Welker - New England Patriots - 15
4. Andre Johnson - Houston Texans - 14
5. Anquan Boldin - Arizona Cardinals - 12
5. Vernon Davis - San Francisco 49ers - 12
5. Kellen Winslow - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 12
5. Mark Clayton - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 12
9. Brandon Marshall - Denver Broncos - 11
9. Torry Holt - Jacksonville Jaguars - 11
9. Antonio Bryant - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 11
12. Roddy White - Atlanta Falcons - 10
12. Tony Gonzalez - Atlanta Falcons - 10
12. Mushin Muhammad - Carolina Panthers - 10
12. Chad Ochocinco - Cincinnati Bengals - 10
12. Owen Daniels - Houston Texans - 10
12. Dwayne Bowe - Kansas City Chiefs - 10
12. Joseph Addai - Indianapolis Colts - 10
18. Todd Heap - Baltimore Ravens - 9
18. Josh Morgan - San Francisco 49ers - 9
18. Keenan Burton -  St. Louis Rams - 9

• I’ll get much more into this later in the week during our Trade Target column.

What are your thoughts on the trends?  Where is the biggest surprise?

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