NCAA Tournament 2017 Bubble Watch: What to Watch for on Thursday

Conference championship week brings one final opportunity for bubble teams to state a convincing case for an NCAA tournament bid, and Thursday could be the most important day of the week.

The ACC began its tournament on Tuesday, while each of the Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC tipped off Wednesday. Cal, USC and Xavier took important steps forward with victories in the opening stages of their respective tourney.

It's not all good news for bubble-dwellers, though.

Clemson, Georgia Tech, Syracuse and Wake Forest have already been eliminated from their respective conference tournaments. The primary issue for those programs is not having any more opportunities to pad the resume, but it doesn't help that several bubble teams still have at least one more chance.

The bubble watch is organized by scheduled tipoff time. Be sure to bookmark our up-to-the-minute bracket projection.

Illinois vs. Michigan

Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Time: Noon ET (BTN)

From Feb. 18 to March 1, Illinois (18-13) did everything right. It knocked off bubble teams Iowa and Michigan State, as well as a tournament lock in Northwestern. All John Groce and the Illini needed to do was avoid a terrible loss at Rutgers.

That didn't happen.

Now, Illinois desperately needs a victory over Michigan (20-11), which recently sealed its place in March Madness with a road win against Purdue. The programs split the season series.

A win doesn't guarantee the Illini will be included, but a loss probably keeps them on the outside looking in.

Penn State vs. Michigan State

Rey Del Rio/Getty Images

Time: 2:25 p.m. ET (BTN)

Despite having the seventh-most losses in the Big Ten, Michigan State (18-13) is in a reasonably solid position on the bubble because of a difficult nonconference schedule.

Yes, the Spartans fell to each of Baylor, Kentucky, Arizona and Duke, but those shortcomings won't be held against them in a major way. The biggest negatives are a bad loss to Northeastern and just three RPI Top 100 wins away from East Lansing.

Even with a loss against Penn State (15-17), MSU could still sneak into the NCAA tourney. But with bid-stealers and a couple of bubble teams potentially making deep runs in conference tournaments, the Spartans need to avoid another bad loss.

Minnesota, which Michigan State defeated twice during the regular season but is also a lock for March Madness, awaits in the quarterfinals. That means the Spartans are just two attainable wins away from sealing a place of their own.

Seton Hall vs. Marquette

Porter Binks/Getty Images

Time: 2:30 p.m. ET (FS1)

Seton Hall (20-10) is probably on the favorable side of the bubble, but a victory over Marquette (19-11) certainly wouldn't hurt.

The Pirates may have secured a bid after defeating Butler on the road, so it's not a must-win outing. Nevertheless, a triumph Thursday at Madison Square Garden would put Seton Hall's collective mind at ease heading into the weekend.

Marquette, on the other hand, could be excluded from March Madness without toppling Seton Hall. A loss would result in a nerve-wracking Selection Sunday for the Golden Eagles, who split the regular-season series with the Pirates.

The winner will meet top-seeded Villanova in the quarterfinals.

Cal vs. Utah

Leon Bennett/Getty Images

Time: 5:30 p.m. ET (Pac-12 Network)

Cal (20-11) took care of business on Wednesday, clipping Oregon State to set up a quarterfinals clash against Utah (20-10). It didn't necessarily help the Golden Bears, but it didn't hurt them.

At this stage of the bubble, the latter is equally as important.

Thursday brings a similar kind of game for Cal, which finds itself in a precarious spot due to five losses in its last six-regular season outings. Utah has a higher seed in the Pac-12 tournament, but it's not in real consideration for March Madness.

Survive and advance. That's the Bears' biggest objective, because there's a legitimate chance they won't garner major consideration without a semifinal victory over Oregon.

Indiana vs. Iowa

Associated Press

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Despite a disappointing regular season, Indiana (17-14) remains on the periphery of the NCAA tournament discussion. Iowa (18-13), after winning road games against Maryland and Wisconsin during the final two weeks, is a little bit closer.

The Hawkeyes probably don't have an adequate resume at this point, but a victory Thursday followed by another win over Wisconsin could be enough for Fran McCaffery's team.

Conversely, anything short of reaching the Big Ten final leaves the Hoosiers in an undesirable place. Although they boast wins against North Carolina and Kansas, a 1-8 record against Big Ten programs in the RPI Top 50 is impossible to disregard.

Iowa won the only matchup between the teams, grabbing a 96-90 victory in Iowa City on Feb. 21.

Xavier vs. Butler

Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Time: 7 p.m. ET (FS1)

Trevon Bluiett scored 17 second-half points to lift Xavier (20-12) over last-seeded DePaul to start the Big East tourney. Consider that a proverbial bullet dodged for the Musketeers.

In mid-February with an 18-6 record, Xavier was rapidly approaching "lock" status for March Madness. However, a six-game losing streak quickly sent the program to the bubble, where it's currently wavering on the cut line.

A victory against Butler (23-7) Thursday night would be a terrific late resume boost for the Musketeers, who haven't beaten a team not named DePaul since Feb. 4.

Texas A&M vs. Vanderbilt

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Time: 7 p.m. ET (SEC Network)

The big question heading into the SEC tournament: Are a season sweep of Florida and quality wins over Iowa State and South Carolina enough for a 17-14 Vanderbilt team?

According to Jack Freifelder of NCAA.com, the greatest number of losses by an at-large selection is 14. Consequently, presuming the Commodores don't win the conference's automatic bid as champion, they could set a peculiar record.

To which the proper reaction is: *Kanye shrug*

Vanderbilt opens SEC tournament play opposite Texas A&M (16-14), a team it swept during the regular season. The Dores would take an important step toward safety with another win.

Kansas State vs. Baylor

Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Time: 9 p.m. ET (ESPNU)

Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller currently lists Kansas State (19-12) as the first team out, largely because of two bad losses and a weak nonconference schedule.

However, the Wildcats are still worthy of consideration thanks to upsets over both Baylor and West Virginia. They're in need of another marquee win against Baylor (25-6) to start the Big 12 tournament, and they know it.

"It's definitely a game we have to have, you know it'll be very good for us to have this win," said No. 2 scorer Kamau Stokes, per Chris Lilly of WIBW. "Right now we're probably on the bubble, and having this win would definitely give us a step up into getting in."

Potential bid-stealers might further shrink the field, so Kansas State cannot afford to waste this opportunity.

Creighton vs. Providence

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

Time: 9:30 p.m. ET (FS1)

"Crumbling" is a strong word, but Creighton (23-8) has stumbled down the stretch despite being a lock for March Madness. Providence (20-11) cannot quite claim the same.

Fortunately for the Friars, they've turned the season around since falling to 4-7 in Big East play and 14-11 overall. A victory over Butler sparked a six-game winning streak—which also includes a triumph over Creighton—that still stands entering the tournament.

Win or lose, Providence will at worst be a top candidate in the at-large discussion on Selection Sunday. But a win might be enough to lock the Friars in to March Madness.

USC vs. UCLA

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

Time: 11:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

USC (24-8) struggled more than expected against a Markelle Fultz-less Washington team in the opening round of the Pac-12 tourney. The Trojans overcame a 10-point deficit for a 78-73 win.

On Wednesday, keeping the status quo was good. Starting Thursday, they'll try to shake it up.

Because of a late four-game losing streak that included a bad defeat at Arizona State, USC isn't quite safely in the field. Andy Enfield's club has just five RPI Top 100 wins this season, though one came at the expense of UCLA (28-3), which is next on the slate.

Should the Trojans secure a second upset of the rival Bruins, an at-large berth becomes a near-certainty. Without a win, USC will face a stressful Sunday—even as a likely choice.

---

Follow Bleacher Report writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.