Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Odds, Basketball Pick

The No. 7 Louisville Cardinals (22-5, 10-4 ACC) will try to move into a first-place tie with the No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels (23-5, 11-3) atop the ACC standings when they visit Chapel Hill on Wednesday as solid road underdogs.

The Cardinals have won six of their last seven games and hope to make it seven of eight while proving themselves as the best team in the ACC ahead of next month's conference tournament.

Point spread: The Tar Heels opened as 4.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. Line updates and matchup report.

Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

Louisville has covered the spread in three of the past four meetings with North Carolina, winning two of the last three, although all three took place at home. The last time the Cardinals visited the Tar Heels, they lost 72-71 but beat the number as three-point road 'dogs, according to the OddsShark College Basketball Database.

They have also performed well away from home lately outside of a 71-55 loss to the Virginia Cavaliers on February 6 (they led that game 34-32 at halftime), covering five of six.

Why the Tar Heels can cover the spread

North Carolina has maintained first place in the ACC throughout the season, winning four of its last five, with the lone loss coming to the 10th-ranked nationally Duke Blue Devils, who are the hottest team in the conference with a seven-game winning streak.

The Tar Heels know they cannot afford to look ahead to a rematch with Duke on March 4 because Louisville beat the Blue Devils 78-69 on January 14. North Carolina brings a 16-game home winning streak into this matchup, going 7-2 ATS in the last nine.

Smart pick

The Heels have been dominant at home lately, with only three of the games during their winning streak there decided by less than seven points. Most have been blowouts by double digits, and the Cardinals do not have the offensive firepower to keep up in a fast-paced game.

Louisville was lucky to escape Syracuse with a win and cover in overtime versus the Orange in its last road game on February 13, and neither will happen here.

Betting trends

Louisville is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games

The total has gone under in five of North Carolina's last seven games.

The total has gone under in four of North Carolina's last five games at home.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.