Virginia Cavaliers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Odds, Basketball Pick

The 14th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers (18-7, 8-5 ACC) hope to avoid their third loss in a row when they visit the 10th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels (22-5, 10-3) as small road underdogs.

The Cavaliers had been favored in their previous five games and have lost three of their last four, including two straight to the Virginia Tech Hokies on the road and the Duke Blue Devils at home.

Point spread: The Tar Heels opened as three-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

Why the Cavaliers can cover the spread

There is obviously a reason oddsmakers still like Virginia despite the team's recent slide. The Cavaliers have continued to play outstanding defense for the most part and dominated the Hokies (71-48) and Louisville Cardinals (71-55) in their last two wins, with both coming at home.

They just need to figure out a way to play better on the road, something that was not an issue earlier in the season. Before failing to cover its last two away from home, Virginia went 8-1 against the spread in its previous nine on the road.

Why the Tar Heels can cover the spread

The Tar Heels have won 10 of their last 12 games, and they have been favored by more than eight points in nine of them. That would help explain some of their struggles to cover lately, going just 6-6 ATS.

As a favorite of five points or less, North Carolina has gone 7-3 ATS dating back to 2015. The Tar Heels have also enjoyed a lot of success versus the Cavaliers ATS, covering 11 of the previous 16 meetings along with 18 of 30.

Smart pick

North Carolina playing at home here is huge. The team has won 15 straight there since losing to Duke nearly a year ago to the day. The Tar Heels have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight at the Dean Smith Center, and they are simply in better current form.

With Virginia failing to find a way to defeat Virginia Tech or Syracuse on the road earlier this month as chalk, a win and cover by North Carolina is likely.

Betting trends

The Tar Heels are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games at home.

The Tar Heels are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of five points or less.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.