College Basketball Rankings 2016-17: Bleacher Report's Week 15 Top 25

We’re 28 days away from Selection Sunday and the NCAA gave us a tease of the bracket Saturday with its first-ever early reveal of the top four lines if the season had ended Friday.

The reveal made two strong statements:

1. Quality wins matter. A lot.
2. Hey Big Ten…

Andres Kudacki/Associated Press

We here at Bleacher Report have a softer heart for the Big Ten. Sure, the league’s top teams (Wisconsin and Purdue) are short on wins that make you go oooweee. But the league is not terrible—fourth-best, according to KenPom.com’s metrics—and deserving of at least one team in the top 16. (Wisconsin didn't help its cause on Sunday with a loss to Northwestern in Madison.) 

If you’re wondering where the most movement will come over these last four weeks, the smart money is on the ACC. Look below for a primer on two teams who could end up trading places.

	Record	Last week
1. Gonzaga	26-0	1
2. Villanova	24-2	2
3. Kansas	22-3	3
4. Baylor	22-3	6
5. Oregon	22-4	4
6. Arizona	23-3	7
7. North Carolina	21-5	5
8. Louisville (tie)	20-5	8
8. UCLA (tie)	23-3	13
10. Virginia	18-6	11
11. Duke	20-5	17
12. Kentucky	20-5	11
13. Purdue	20-5	16
14. Wisconsin	21-4	9
15. Florida	20-5	19
16. West Virginia	20-5	18
17. SMU	22-4	22
18. Cincinnati	22-3	10
19. Florida State	21-5	14
20. Saint Mary's	22-3	15
21. Notre Dame	19-7	Not ranked
22. Creighton	21-4	24
23. South Carolina	20-5	20
24. Wichita State	23-4	24
25. Maryland	21-4	21

Others receiving votes: Oklahoma State, Butler, USC

Moving up: Duke

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

We’re finally seeing a closer version of the Duke everyone anticipated in the preseason.

That’s why the Blue Devils climbed from No. 23 two weeks ago in this poll to 11 this week. They have won five straight and seem to be meshing now that all the chaos—early injuries, Grayson Allen tripping incidents and Mike Krzyzewski back surgery—seems to be behind them.

How does the current state of Duke compare to what we expected?

Well, the freshman class definitely isn’t as potent, although Jayson Tatum is starting to figure out the college game.

Allen dropped 25 points in Thursday’s win against North Carolina, and he looks happy and confident again. And the one component that is actually surpassing preseason expectations is sophomore Luke Kennard playing at an All-American level. That helps balance out the freshmen not exactly living up to the hype.

But let’s not crown the Devils just yet. They struggled to win at Cameron on Saturday against Clemson, hanging on, 64-62, in a game that saw only Kennard top double figures for the Devils.

Duke is certainly in the conversation for national title contenders. It’s just a different (and broader) conversation than the preseason talk.

Moving down: Florida State

Robert Franklin/Associated Press

After appearing on the No. 2 line in the NCAA tournament committee’s bracket reveal Saturday—occupying the sixth spot overall—the Seminoles didn’t exactly reflect their ranking in an 84-72 loss at Notre Dame later in the day.

Florida State is a tough team to place. It’s understandable why the committee is high on the 'Noles. They have wins over Florida, Virginia, Duke and Louisville.

But FSU is one of only two teams in the top four lines with a losing record on the road—Duke is the other. The Seminoles are 2-4 in true road games and trending in the wrong direction. They are 3-3 over their last six games with losses at Georgia Tech, Syracuse and Notre Dame.

None of those are bad losses. But you expect better from a team in the No. 2 line.

Worth noting: Is the tournament committee treating Gonzaga fairly?

Ben Margot/Associated Press

The committee gave the Zags a No. 1 seed but ranked them fourth overall.

The rationale obviously comes down to Gonzaga’s schedule. Mark Few’s team does not have as many opportunities to get quality wins in conference play as Power Five schools.

It would be interesting to find out from the committee whether Saturday’s 74-64 win at Saint Mary’s would have bumped the Zags up at all. The Gaels should be in the tourney field.

Gonzaga could also benefit in the future from additional metrics playing a more significant role in the bracket. Ken Pomeroy, who runs KenPom.com, took part in a meeting at NCAA headquarters last month to discuss the potential involvement of his rating systems and others like it in the selection process.

I spoke to Pomeroy this past week for a piece on Gonzaga as a legit national title contender, and Pomeroy said he believes his ratings will play more of a role starting next year.

Gonzaga is currently No. 1 in Pomeroy’s ratings and on a historic pace. Pomeroy uses an adjusted efficiency margin to rank the teams, and Gonzaga’s current number (plus-34.42) would be the second-best ever in the database if the season ended today, behind only 2014-15 UK.

On the radar: Oklahoma State

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

The Cowboys appeared in the Top 25 on two of the three B/R ballots this week.

They have played themselves back into the NCAA tournament picture after starting Big 12 play on a six-game losing streak.

Oklahoma State has won six of seven with the lone loss coming this past Wednesday at home against No. 4 Baylor, 72-69. OK State also has two big-time resume road wins over Wichita State (by 17!) and West Virginia.

While the record isn’t glitzy (16-9 overall, 5-7 Big 12), the advanced numbers tell us the Cowboys are nearly identical to the profile of No. 10 UCLA. Like the Bruins, OSU plays fast, buries threes, scores efficiently and is pretty crummy on defense.

	KenPom rank	Adj. Tempo	AdjO/rank	3pt%	AdjD/rank
OSU	20	71.2	123.8/2nd	40.5	101.9/120th
UCLA	18	74.1	124.6/1st	41.8	102.1/126th

What to watch for this week:

• No. 16 West Virginia at No. 3 Kansas (Monday 9 p.m. ET on ESPN)
• No. 11 Duke at No. 10 Virginia (Wednesday 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2
• No. 14 Wisconsin at Michigan (Thursday 7 p.m. ET on ESPN)
• No. 10 Virginia at No. 7 North Carolina (Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN)
• No. 3 Kansas at No. 4 Baylor (Saturday 1 p.m. ET on CBS)

All eyes should be on the Big 12 this week as KU plays its top two challengers.

If the Jayhawks win both their games this week, they will essentially lock up their 13th straight Big 12 title and place in the No. 1 line. A split would likely see the race go to the season’s final weekend, and if Baylor is the one loss, the league could still be in a good spot to have two teams in the top line.

Wisconsin’s trip to Michigan on Thursday is significant because obviously the Badgers have some work to do in the committee’s eyes to move into one of the top four lines. Wisconsin’s schedule down the stretch is pretty meh, and the Michigan game is arguably the best resume game left.

Virginia and Kansas both have an argument for the most difficult upcoming two-game stretch. The Wahoos could find themselves at the top of the ACC standings or out of contention for the conference crown depending on how this week goes.

C.J. Moore covers college basketball and football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @CJMooreBR.