North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils Betting Odds, Basketball Pick

The 18th-ranked Duke Blue Devils (18-5) will try to move one step closer to the ACC lead when they host the eighth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels (21-4) on Thursday as small home favorites.

The Tar Heels sit atop the conference with a 9-2 record, but the Blue Devils have won three in a row since they were upset by the North Carolina State Wolfpack to move to 6-4 in ACC play.

Point spread: The Blue Devils opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total is at 161.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College basketball pick, via OddsShark computer: 73.4-69.8 Tar Heels (College basketball picks on every game)

Why the Tar Heels can cover the spread

North Carolina remains the more stable team at this point and is ranked higher for the third straight meeting in the historic intrastate rivalry.

While the Tar Heels have lost four of the past five meetings straight up, going 2-3 against the spread, they did win the most recent game between the teams last March 5 at Duke, 76-72, and covered as 2.5-point road favorites. They have also won nine of their last 10 overall, going 5-5 ATS during that stretch.

Why the Blue Devils can cover the spread

The Blue Devils are streaking in the right direction now with head coach Mike Krzyzewski back on the bench after dropping three of four with him out following back surgery. Coach K missed about a month overall, and assistant Jeff Capel did his best to keep the team afloat in his absence.

Duke hopes to finish strong and still has an outside shot of winning the conference title with two games versus North Carolina remaining. This was the preseason No. 1 team in the country and can still live up to that potential.

Smart pick

Despite winning a lot of games lately, North Carolina has failed to cover its last three both overall and on the road. The Heels lost their last road game 77-62 to the Miami Hurricanes on January 28 as 5.5-point favorites, and they will face a much more raucous crowd and tougher opponent here in the Blue Devils.

Even though North Carolina will be the first Top 25 foe to visit Cameron Indoor Stadium this season, look for Duke to be more than ready for this tough task and win this one easily SU and ATS on the Vegas odds.

Betting trends

North Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.

North Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last six games on the road.

The total has gone over in eight of Duke's last 10 games.

All college basketball lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.