French Open 2017: Early Odds for Top Players After the Australian Open

The tennis world is still astonished by epic performances from Roger Federer and Serena Williams in winning the 2017 Australian Open, but odds have already been adjusted for the French Open in four months.

Federer and Rafael Nadal shook things up in Melbourne, and after his valiant runner-up performance, it's the Spaniard who comes away as the biggest potential winner in improving his chances to win at Roland Garros. How do the two legends stack up on red clay four months from now? And what about superstars Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray?

Meanwhile, Serena is the clear-cut women's favorite to win the French Open, even though it's her most difficult surface. And how will defending champion Garbine Muguruza follow up her career achievement this time around?

We are posting the odds from Oddschecker for the WTA board and ATP board. We'll add our analysis for each player's strengths and drawbacks in projecting ahead. A lot will change by the time the peak of the clay-court season rolls along in May.

Long Shots in the WTA

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Two-time French Open champion Maria Sharapova has not played since the 2016 Australian Open because she is serving her suspension for performance-enhancing drugs.

She will be reinstated in late April, which gives her a few weeks of clay-court action before the French Open begins. She will have to come back as a wild card, and her fitness and form are very much in question.

Not every site gives French Open odds for Sharapova, but she is a popular player and will get a lot of attention when she returns, so her odds range from 14-1 to 20-1. She might be overrated at those chances, but everyone likes a proven, familiar star with a puncher's chance.

Petra Kvitova is a surprising 18-1 chance. She is recovering from a knife wound on her dominant left hand when attacked at her home in late December. Clay is her weakest surface with her more unsteady footwork and inconsistent baseline power. Those are inflated odds.

Karolina Pliskova also gets about 18-1 odds, but it would be surprising to see her win a major on red clay. Wimbledon grass will be much better for her power serving.

A real bargain could be 2015 runner-up Lucie Safarova at 33-1. She is a terrific fighter on clay with heavy left-handed topspin and the right draw could produce another run at the title. On the other hand, Eugenie Bouchard is a terrible risk at 40-1. The Canadian has not proved she can play top-level tennis since 2014. She's not near the quality of player as Agnieszka Radwanska at 40-1.

Other long shots include Venus Williams and Caroline Wozniacki at 66-1. Venus had a terrific run at Melbourne, but she is not likely to grind away at age 36 after battling Sjogrens syndrome for over half a decade.

Angelique Kerber

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Odds: 12-1 (about 7.7% to win)

Recent world No. 1 Angelique Kerber won two majors on hard courts in 2016, but red clay is her weakest surface. The German southpaw hits a lot of flat shots that do not fly off the court, and her inability to employ heavy topspin makes her less likely than someone like Safarova to truly compete for the title at Roland Garros.

Kerber has also been trending down since the U.S. Open. Her legs are not as fresh and lesser players are not afraid to compete with her on even terms. She's overrated at 12-1, but she is a terrific fighter who has learned to handle big matches, so it might be fair to give her something like 20-1.

What she needs is energetic legs, big match wins at venues like Madrid and Rome and to play her best tennis. Can she find her groove in late May?

Simona Halep

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Odds: 10-1 (about 9% to win)

Halep was the 2014 runner-up and a consistent top-five star since then, but she's never won a Grand Slam title. It seems to be getting harder with more spotty performances. She was crushed in the first round at the Australian Open before the tournament could even get warmed up.

She's a terrific retriever and will leave it all on the line when she returns shot after shot on the red clay. The problem is that her smaller stature makes it hard to handle high topspin and reply with championship power. She's going to need the perfect storm of precision tennis, bracket upsets and the best tennis of her life in the final weekend.

Is her best good enough to beat Serena Williams? Probably not. Halep should be more like 18-1 for the French Open.

Garbine Muguruza

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Odds: 9-2 (about 18% to win)

Champion Garbine Muguruza has the perfect combination of power and comfort on clay courts. The Spaniard defeated Serena Williams in the final last year, and she projects as the No. 2 favorite at Roland Garros in May.

The biggest questions about Muguruza concern her mediocre play since last summer. There are times she's not as focused, and it's possible nerves and expectations have weighed on her following the talks that she would take the baton from Serena and become a decorated major winner. That hasn't happened.

But if there is any cure for Muguruza's doldrums, it's Roland Garros. She will have plenty of clay-court tuneups to rebuild her confidence, and if she does, she could be a much stronger pick than 9-2 odds.

Serena Williams

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Odds: 2-1 (about 33% to win)

French Open clay is Serena Williams' weakest surface of the four Grand Slam venues, but she's still a three-time champion, including recent veteran titles in 2013 and 2015. Until further notice, she's once again the No. 1 player and favorite anywhere, so long as she is healthy.

The thing to watch is how much Serena will play or not play in the next four months. She figures to prioritize Premier events such as Indian Wells and Miami, and she will probably play one or two tournaments on clay before the French Open. She needs enough work to keep her competitive rhythm but not too much to deplete her energy or legs. She knows what to do.

For now, it's still smart to take the field against Serena, but the 35-year-old has all the power and talent to dominate for the foreseeable future. It's on her racket, even at Roland Garros.

Long Shots in the ATP

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The men's field has several French Open long shots that are top-10 caliber players. A quick look at some of them shows some curious appraisals:

• Dominic Thiem 22-1
• Kei Nishikori 30-1
• Nick Kyrgios 33-1
• Juan Martin del Potro 33-1
• Milos Raonic 40-1
• Alexander Zverev 50-1
• David Goffin 66-1
• Gael Monfils 66-1
• Grigor Dimitrov 66-1

Thiem was a semifinalist at Roland Garros and has won several small clay-court tournaments the past couple years, so he sort of sets the standard for rising players. He's listed ahead of Kei Nishikori, Juan Martin del Potro and Milos Raonic.

Apparently the oddsmakers figure that Goffin, Monfils and Dimitrov are on a level with each other. Dimitrov might be the biggest bargain at about one-and-a-half percent to win the title. He should at least be 30-1 and probably better. Maybe only the Big Four have better combinations of footwork and offensive weapons. He's also healthier than Del Potro and fitter than the tempestuous Kyrgios.

Roger Federer

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Odds: 20-1 (about 4.8% to win)

That's about right for the mighty Federer. Although the consensus is that he will not win a second French Open title, the Swiss is always a worthy candidate. After winning the Australian Open, nobody needs to be reminded that he can win anytime in the most unexpected ways. Why not Roland Garros?

Federer is not expected to play much clay-court tennis. Perhaps two tuneups—Monte Carlo and Madrid would be the right formula—and then he can skip Rome, recharge and weave magic at Roland Garros.

I'm still stunned Federer won in Australia, but that momentum can be a powerful force to drive him for more greatness. Why stop now?

Some might even take the Swiss Maestro at 10-1 odds—he might be underrated at that.

Stan Wawrinka

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Odds: 9-1 (about 11% to win)

Wawrinka was the last player to defeat Federer and Djokovic at the French Open, ousting both of them on his way to the title in 2015. He got back to the 2016 semifinal before falling to Andy Murray. He's a strong contender again for the French Open, even if it's hard to project if he will be up or down in late May.

Although he's been a great player on hard courts, Wawrinka still has a better chance on clay where he has more time to wind up and hit through the court. He's the only one who beat down Djokovic in big matches during the Serb's prime, and at his best he plays with no fear.

He could still be reasonable at 7-1 odds, and there's every argument to put him above the top three. But he could also go out early if he has a bad day, so 11-1 it is.

Andy Murray

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Odds: 7-2 (about 11% to win)

A few weeks ago, Andy Murray was the talk of tennis, the No. 1 player who looked like his Novak Djokovic problem has been eliminated. Would he win Australia and set himself up as favorite to win the French Open?

In short, 2017 has started off as a disaster.

Murray lost the Doha final to Djokovic and was embarrassed in the Australian Open by journeyman Mischa Zverev, who attacked the net like John McEnroe. Does anyone think that Roger Federer wouldn't be able to expose the super Scot with even greater tools of attack? So now the Swiss is probably more of a favorite at Wimbledon or the U.S. Open, at the moment at least.

The earlier big issue is the French Open. Suddenly Nadal is a major factor once again, and he's already got a confident vibe to go after the French Open.  

Murray slipped to a distant third in the French Open pecking order, and the truth is he might not be better than a coin toss against Wawrinka. He's certainly not the favorite and the Fedal resurgence in Melbourne cuts his odds dramatically for more majors in 2017.

Rafael Nadal

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Odds: 11-4 (about 27% to win)

Nadal's odds range from 25-30 percent to win the French Open. It's a fair number at the moment with potential to keep climbing. He's listed as No. 2 in the odds now, but he looked like a more viable French Open winner than anyone else, including Djokovic, based on the Australian Open run to the final.

First, Nadal's groundstrokes are stronger and more aggressive. He succeeded despite faster pace and less bounce on this year's Plexicushion. (Take nothing away from Federer, but if the Melbourne surface bounced slower the way it did a few years ago, Nadal likely would have won the title going away, finishing off his earlier rounds with more energy to spare and launching higher spin into the Federer backhand.) His backhand was a weapon at times, and he usually showed his propensity to win the big points.

Second, Nadal's confidence is crucial for the clay-court season beginning at Monte Carlo in early April. If he defends his title there and takes Barcelona, he might be best to play Madrid and skip Rome, as we suggested for Federer.

Nadal needs that extra energy at age 31, and if he were to try to sweep five clay-court titles culminating with Roland Garros, his body probably wouldn't hold up.

The Spaniard will be the most interesting player this spring.

Novak Djokovic

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Odds: 13-8 (about 38% to win)

There's still healthy respect for Djokovic's chances to win the French Open. He's listed as high as 5-4 odds (44 percent) on Oddschecker. Despite his relative struggles since Wimbledon, the Serb has the total package to win on clay and last year's victory at Roland Garros takes the pressure away from making it feel like an all-or-nothing major title.

Then again, Djokovic has usually been at his best when pressure backs him into a corner and forces him to fight his way out. It's a conundrum; he wants to find peace, but he probably needs war.

The jury is out until we see which version of Djokovic will perform in clay-court Europe. He's the man to beat unless we see Nadal transform into the monster he was circa 2012.

The best part of this? We could see the Djokovic-Nadal rivalry rekindled on clay, something that should inspire the Serb more than his patterned play against Murray.