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Bold Predictions for the NHL in 2017

Steve MacfarlaneDec 30, 2016

It's easy to get caught up in awards when writing a prediction piece with a little more than half an NHL season to play. Picking Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid as the Art Ross Trophy winner, Carey Price or Devan Dubnyk as the Vezina winner or someone like Sergei Bobrovsky or Nick Foligno as the ultimate hoister of the Hart Trophy might make a decent read, but we're going for a little more bold than that. 

As the calendar turns to 2017, we're examining some big storylines that could play out in the coming months, both on and off the ice. Big names could get traded, big decisions—like participation in the 2018 Winter Olympics—loom and more than a few firings could take place (we're looking at you, Colorado Avalanche and New York Islanders).

So without further delay, here is a look at 10 bold predictions for the NHL in 2017. Save it for a few months, head back here and be prepared to mock or praise these picks.

Five Canadian Teams Will Make the Playoffs

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Not one of the seven Canadian NHL franchises made the playoffs last season, not even the Montreal Canadiens—who suffered the devastating loss of starting goalie Carey Price and went from one of the top teams in the league to one of the worst. 

This season, there are four clubs from north of the border currently sitting in postseason positions, including the Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames. Barring big injuries, all four of those teams have the talent to stick in the standings, and another one of the outsiders from Canada should keep things close enough to threaten to add a fifth.

The Winnipeg Jets are this gambler's choice to grab one of the final spots in the wide-open Western Conference, thanks to a roster full of youth and talent but bolstered by hard-working veterans like Bryan Little and Blake Wheeler. 

Although they were shout out last year, Canadians had a handful of teams to cheer on in the spring of 2014 as well. Three or four teams would be a safe gamble, but the potential for five is there and this is a bold prediction piece, after all. 

The NHL Will Officially Declare Its Absence from the 2018 Winter Games

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There is a great deal working against NHL players competing in the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, yet many believe things will work out and the NHL will participate again. I'm not one of those people.

NHL commissioner Gary Bettman has taken a hard stance with the International Olympic Committee and continues to come up with reasons to avoid going. Aside from the business and scheduling issues that come with shutting down the league for two weeks, there is the threat of injury and a lack of funds forthcoming from the IOC to cover transportation and insurance costs for the NHL players.

According to Sportnet.ca, IIHF president Rene Fasel said this month that he would find the $10 million needed, but Bettman wasn't convinced: "Rene said he'll get it even if he has to steal it. I don't know what that means. If it means taking it away form hockey development I'm not so sure that that's a good idea."

The NHL has also proposed it would commit to Olympic participation if players would agree to extend the current collective bargaining agreement. Players unsurprisingly declined that offer.

With a decision expected to come before the end of January to leave enough of a buffer for all the logistics involved, there just doesn't seem to be enough time—especially when you consider that money doesn't seem to be driving the NHL's negative stance. 

The New York Islanders Will Clean House After Disappointing Season

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The New York Islanders had a strong postseason last spring, making it to the second round of the NHL playoffs for the first time since 1993. The follow-up, however, has been very disappointing. 

The team has a new arena in Brooklyn and a franchise player in John Tavares but haven't been able to turn a corner and become a perennial contender like crosstown rival New York Rangers. They have a handful of promising young players who haven't yet blossomed at the NHL level, and there's a great chance that both head coach Jack Capuano and general manager Garth Snow will be punted after this season. 

Capuano is on FoxSports.com's list of five coaches on the hot seat for 2017, and Snow didn't win any more fans with the extension he gave Cal Clutterbuck this season. 

The Isles are tied for last in the Eastern Conference standings along with the Buffalo Sabres, and after last year's surge, it's more likely owners swing the axe with hopes set higher. 

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The St. Louis Blues Will Lose Shattenkirk to a Blockbuster UFA Contract

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St. Louis Blues defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk is currently the fourth-leading point producer at his position and essentially establishing his price on the open market as a pending unrestricted free agent as a result. He should be able to earn upwards of $8 million per season for a lengthy term as the 27-year-old heads to July 1 with little competition in the way of fellow UFAs under 30. 

There is a steep drop off between his production and that of the Buffalo Sabres' Dmitry Kulikov. Even at the forward ranks, there are plenty of 30-plus veterans like Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau of the San Jose Sharks, but not much in the way of players in their primes the way Shattenkirk will hit the open market. 

Shattenkirk has eight goals and 24 points in 36 games for the Blues, but the team has very little wiggle room under the cap and a raise of more than $3 million on Shattenkirk's current deal (via CapFriendly.com) would be very limiting if not completely impossible for the Blues to accommodate.

At the same time, as a top playoff contender in the Western Conference, the Blues are better to hang on to their defensive prize at the trade deadline, because nothing that comes back in a deal will be as valuable to them for a Cup run in the short term this spring as Shattenkirk's presence. The Blues do have the positional depth that would allow them to let him walk away in the offseason.

In this case, a deal that gives them something in return for exclusive negotiating rights before the free-agent blitz is the best they can hope for. 

Brent Burns Will Be Shafted in the Norris Trophy Voting...Again

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Brent Burns has been a Norris Trophy finalist just once in six seasons as a member of the San Jose Sharks, yet he has the third highest point-per-game average among all blueliners in that span. Aside from last year's third-place finish in the voting for the NHL's best overall defenseman, Burns had only received votes of any kind in one other season—after a 17-goal, 60-point 2015 campaign. 

With teammates like Joe Thornton suggesting he's the best player in the league, regardless of position, it's hard to believe Burns is only now getting the kind of recognition for his incredible offensive output. Perhaps it's because he's previously been used as a forward, or the fact he plays on the West Coast or that his numbers are shy of Erik Karlsson's unfathomable production, but Burns just hasn't been regarded worthy of a Norris nod. 

Even though things like shot generation are making more like Travis Yost of TSN take notice of Burns' value, he's just not a guy historically getting votes. Perhaps he'll get more this year, but unless he beats Karlsson in the overall points race, he'll never beat him out for the Norris.

Patrik Laine Will Be the Second Rookie to Score 40 Goals Since 1993

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No one is expecting Winnipeg Jets superstar Patrik Laine to match the 76 goals fellow Finnish rookie Teemu Selanne posted for the previous version of the Jets back in 1992-93. However, the second-overall pick of the 2016 NHL draft is on his way to a potential Calder Trophy nod thanks to the 19 goals and 30 points in 38 games so far. 

Laine is the league's top freshman sniper, leading top pick Auston Matthews by a couple of goals, and is on pace for right around 41 goals. The pace doesn't guarantee the ultimate total, however, with many teenage rookies historically struggling to score with regularity later in the season and the potential for an injury to take away from the tally. 

In this case, though, Laine has shown the kind of determination and net presence—not to mention his lethal release and accuracy—to stay right up there with the league's best in the scoring department. If he does crack the 40-goal mark, he'll be in the company of some of the NHL's elite as only 18 rookies have reached that number as rookies. The last to do so was Alex Ovechkin in 2005-06. 

Selanne and Eric Lindros both hit that mark in 1993, according to Hockey-Reference.com. 

Sidney Crosby Will Be the League's First 60-Goal, 100-Point Player Since 2008

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Ovechkin is the last player to score at least 60 goals and 100 points in the same season, accomplishing it in 2007-08 when he finished with 65 tallies and 112 points over a full 82 games. More than a decade had past since the previous NHLer hit those marks, when Mario Lemieux put together a ridiculous 69 goals and 161 points in just 70 games in 1995-96 with the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Sidney Crosby will be the first Penguin to do it since Lemieux. With an already stunning 26 goals and 42 points in 31 regular-season games, Crosby is well on his way with a 1.35 point-per-game pace. He's missed a half-dozen games this year with injury but is having his most incredible offensive season since 2010, when he finished with a career-high 51 goals and an impressive 109 points

It's almost as if Crosby is finally playing at 100 per cent health after multiple concussions derailed him from his magical 100-point totals in three of his first four NHL seasons. He seems to be motivated by the Stanley Cup championship he helped the Penguins win last spring and is doing everything he can to make this year a repeat. 

The Columbus Blue Jackets Will Win the Metropolitan Division

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With the defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins, last season's Presidents' Trophy winning Washington Capitals and the potent New York Rangers always present, the Metropolitan Division is a tough one to capture. Three different teams have taken the crown the past three seasons. 

This year, the Columbus Blue Jackets will make it four. As of Thursday night, the team is on top of the Penguins and Rangers in the standings and has played significantly fewer games. Head coach John Tortorella has the Blue Jackets working extremely hard on a consistent basis, and the talent level is under-appreciated by the masses when you consider relative unknowns Cam Atkinson and Alexander Wennberg lead the team in scoring at nearly a point-per-game pace, and veteran journeymen Nick Foligno and Sam Gagner round out the top five along with young sniper Brandon Saad.

Outside of their well-rounded depth that lacks star power but not effort and talent, the Blue Jackets' biggest key to success is goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky, who is back in Vezina Trophy form this season and is a legitimate MVP candidate right now. Barring injury, he will take them to new heights as a team that is peaking as a group. 

The battle will be tough with all the talent around them in the division, but this is the year the Blue Jackets put it all together and make some noise. 

Ben Bishop Will Become a Member of the Dallas Stars

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The writing is on the wall in Tampa Bay for Lightning goalie Ben Bishop. He has been one of the best at his position the past few years, but with an expiring contract and a starter in waiting for the Bolts in backup Andrei Vasilevskiy, Bishop will be moved to a new team as early as the trade deadline. 

That's the easy part of the prediction. The bold part is picking a team. And while the Dallas Stars have been bound and determined to make their two-goalie tandem of Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen work, that failure is the biggest reason the Stars are struggling just to stay in the playoff picture in the Western Conference. 

Bishop is a big-money netminder in need of a new deal, but if you remove the inflated salaries of the pair the Stars have between the pipes right now, the team will be able to fit Bishop in on a long-term deal. As the trade deadline approaches, the cap cost goes down. The Lightning also face the potential of losing Bishop as an unrestricted free agent this summer and should be motivated to move the goaltender. 

Bishop's injury offers the Lightning more time to see what Vasilevskiy can do as a starter. 

Travis Green Will Coach the Vegas Golden Knights

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When the Nashville Predators were named the NHL's newest franchise, the search for a head coach ended with a guy named Barry Trotz—a guy who had no NHL coaching experience but cut his teeth with five seasons in the AHL. Good with young players and journeyman veterans, Trotz was able to get the most from a roster with big holes in it because of a limited budget. 

The Vegas Golden Knights could use the kind of stability Trotz offered. His teams were among the league's hardest working, and he helped groom young players into NHL contributors quickly. 

Travis Green is that kind of coach. At least it looks like he could be. Green helped the WHL's Portland Winterhawks to a championship in his first year as a head coach while filling in for a suspended Mike Johnston in the 2012-13 season. He jumped to the AHL with Vancouver Canucks affiliate Utica Comets the following season and led the team to the league final in his second full year. 

Trotz won one AHL title in his second year as bench boss and went back to the final in Year 4. 

Green's name often comes up for NHL vacancies, including last spring when the Anaheim Ducks fired Bruce Boudreau—named as a candidate by NBC Pro Hockey Talk's Jason Brough on Twitter. Golden Knights GM George McPhee need only look at his former team's coach in the Capitals' Trotz to make the right call on his new franchise's first leader behind the bench. 

All stats via NHL.com unless otherwise noted.

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