Houston Texans vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 30, 2016

PHILADELPHIA, PA - NOVEMBER 28: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers looks to throw against the Philadelphia Eagles in the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field on November 28, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Green Bay won 27-13. (Photo by Corey Perrine/Getty Images)
Corey Perrine/Getty Images

The Green Bay Packers (5-6) finally broke their four-game losing streak last week and will try to make it two wins in a row when they host the struggling Houston Texans (6-5) as solid home favorites on Sunday.

The Packers are coming off a 27-13 win over the Philadelphia Eagles as four-point road underdogs on Monday night, and the Texans dropped their second straight last Sunday at home to the San Diego Chargers, 21-13, as 2.5-point home dogs.


Point spread: The Packers opened as 3.5-point favorites, and the total was 46.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.5-19.5, Packers (NFL picks on every game)


Why the Texans can cover the spread

While Houston has not played well during its losing streak, this team had won three of four before the skid and still leads the AFC South. The Texans should be highly motivated in this spot and have some confidence against Green Bay based on what the Indianapolis Colts did at Lambeau Field when they visited in Week 9.

The Packers have still surrendered an average of 33.2 points in their last five games. In addition, the visitor has won the past three meetings between these two teams.


Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay came through in a key game last week and obviously needs to keep on winning in order to have any shot at returning to the postseason for the eighth straight year. The Packers are an impressive 14-3 against the spread in their last 17 at home after playing consecutive road games, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers seems to be playing at an MVP level again.

The Packers still have a shot to win the NFC North with three divisional games in the last three weeks to close out the season, and they'll make sure not to take any opponent lightly the rest of the way.


Smart pick

Even though the Texans are 6-1 straight up and 5-1-1 ATS in their previous seven games against teams with losing records, Green Bay is not your typical sub-.500 squad. Defensively, the Packers will try to take advantage of a Houston offense that has had trouble scoring, failing to total more than 20 points in four of their last five games.

Look for Green Bay to hold the Texans in check offensively yet again with an easy win and cover at Lambeau.


Betting trends

The total has gone under in nine of the Packers' last 11 games at home.

The Packers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games at home after consecutive road games.

The Texans are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with losing records.


All NFL lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the Odds Shark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.


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