Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 22, 2016

CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 20:  Antonio Brown #84 of the Pittsburgh Steelers looks on during warmups prior to the game against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium on November 20, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Two teams looking to stay in playoff contention will meet Thanksgiving night in Indianapolis, as the Colts (5-5) host the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5) as home underdogs.

Indianapolis might be without quarterback Andrew Luck due to a concussion, which would take the luster off what would have been a blockbuster matchup opposite Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger and make the line move even more in the road team's favor.

Point spread: The Steelers opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 53 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.8-21.6 Colts (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers have dominated the Colts over the past three decades, winning 13 of the past 15 meetings straight up and covering the spread in 10 of them. The teams have met each of the last two seasons, with Pittsburgh outscoring Indianapolis by a combined margin of 96-44.

Last week, running back Le'Veon Bell had his best performance of the year in a 24-9 win over the Cleveland Browns with 146 rushing yards on 28 carries, both season highs. If Bell keeps running like that, the sky's the limit for this team come playoff time.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts have been unreal as home underdogs lately, going an incredible 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS in that situation dating back to 2011. With or without Luck, they have the offensive weapons to compete with the Steelers but will need to continue playing better defensively to have a shot here.

Indy got off to a great start last week, jumping out to a 21-0 lead against the Tennessee Titans, another good offensive team. The Colts held on for a 24-17 victory and can learn from that experience before playing Pittsburgh.

Smart pick

Luck's status is obviously worth watching because Indianapolis will resemble winless Cleveland if he does not play. That being said, Pittsburgh is a motivated team that is focused on staking its claim on first place in the AFC North and improving on their 57.8 percent chance of making the playoffs according to PredictionMachine.com.

The Steelers know they have to win this game and will not feel sorry for the Colts in this scenario. They know what it's like to be banged-up, especially Roethlisberger, who will lead them to another easy win and Vegas lines cover on the road.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in the Steelers' last four games against the Colts.

The Colts are 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as home underdogs.

The Steelers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in November.

All NFL betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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