Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Pittsburgh owns the recent rivalry with Cleveland, winning 22 of the last 25 meetings straight up, including six of the last seven, with five covers over that span. So it appears the Steelers will be well positioned to halt their four-game losing streak when they take on the Browns on Sunday at FirstEnergy Stadium.

Point spread: The Steelers opened as 8.5-point favorites; the total was 49.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.8-17.5, Steelers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Pittsburgh is trying to bounce back after taking a tough 35-30 defeat against a hot Dallas outfit last week. 

The Steelers led the Cowboys most of the day, and took their final lead on a tricky Ben Roethlisberger touchdown toss to Antonio Brown with 40 seconds left in the game. But a key facemask penalty got Dallas in position, and rookie MVP candidate Ezekiel Elliott bolted 32 yards up the middle of the Pittsburgh defense for the game-winning score.

The Steelers outgained the Cowboys, 448-422, as Roethlisberger threw for 408 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. So Pittsburgh has outgained each of its last three opponents, and five of its last six. But the Steelers also tried four two-point conversions last week and failed on every one.

Pittsburgh may only be 4-5 on the season, but it's only a game out of first place in the AFC North and has a 26.4 percent chance of winning the division, according to PredictionMachine.com.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

The Browns are a tough case to make, considering they reached 0-10 on the season last week by losing at Baltimore, 28-7. Cleveland actually led the Ravens at the half, 7-6, but once again came up short in the second half.

The Browns have now lost five games this season in which they held leads in the second half. They led Baltimore earlier this year, 20-12; Miami, 13-10; Washington, 20-17; and the Jets, 20-7, along with the Ravens last week, but they ended up losing the second halves of those games by a combined score of 93-22.

If Cleveland could just put two halves together, it might have something.

Smart pick

The Steelers beat the Browns twice last season by an average score of 29-11, and that sounds about right for this one. The smart pick here at online gambling sites is Pittsburgh, minus the points.

Betting trends

The Steelers are 22-3 SU in their last 25 games against the Browns.

The Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Browns.

The Browns are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.

All NFL betting lines and point-spread data courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.