Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Dallas Cowboys (8-1) will go for their ninth consecutive victory on Sunday, when they host the AFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens (5-4) as solid home favorites.

The Cowboys are coming off a 35-30 win over another AFC North team, the Pittsburgh Steelers, as three-point road underdogs, while the Ravens got some extra time to prepare following a 28-7 rout of the Cleveland Browns as 7.5-point chalk last Thursday night. 

Point spread: The Cowboys opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.1-13.0, Cowboys (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

After the Cowboys' back-and-forth game in Pittsburgh that included seven lead changes, Baltimore is hoping its opponent is due for a letdown, especially back at home. The Cowboys have been known to get too comfortable at AT&T Stadium over the years, particularly prior to this season.

Dallas is 3-0-1 against the spread at home in 2016 but went 2-10-2 ATS in its previous 14 games there dating back to 2014, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. While this is a much different team thanks to rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, the Ravens will be playing with no pressure on them here.

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

The Cowboys are 8-0-1 ATS this year, and one of the secrets behind their success has been their youth and inexperience. Similar to this year's Chicago Cubs who won their first World Series since 1908, Prescott and Elliott were not part of the team's past failures and just go out and play to the best of their abilities.

That has obviously translated to a lot of early success in their respective careers while helping Dallas overcome the stigma of being overrated and disappointing, two words they know nothing about yet. With former starting quarterback Tony Romo also showing his support for Prescott earlier in the week, the Cowboys' chemistry is only improving, and they're now up to second on the Super Bowl 51 odds.

Smart pick

The Ravens do not seem to have the firepower to hang with the Cowboys in an offensive shootout like the Steelers did last week, but they do have a better defense than their division rivals. That alone should help Baltimore stick around and cover the spread, as the team has gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in its past five meetings with Dallas.

Betting trends

The Ravens are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Cowboys.

The total has gone over in the Ravens' last three games against the Cowboys.

The total has gone under in seven of the Cowboys' last eight games against the AFC.

All NFL betting lines and point-spread data courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.