NFL Picks Week 11: Highlighting Best Vegas Odds and Expert Predictions

The NFL can be a tough sport to pick from week to week.

The sport lends itself naturally to small sample sizes with teams playing once each week, and so much can happen to a team between Sundays. Plus, teams can change dramatically from the first half of the season to the next, as players find their footing and coaches figure out what makes an offense or defense tick.

The NFL's Best Match Ups: Week 11

Take the Miami Dolphins for example.

Picking against them was a pretty easy decision for much of this season, but second-year back Jay Ajayi has given the team a massive boost in the running game and quarterback Ryan Tannehill is cutting down on his mistakes and playing smart football. Winners of four straight, the Fins are road favorites against the Los Angeles Rams this week. 

There are 13 other contests for bettors and prognosticators to evaluate in Week 11. Here's a look at the latest odds and expert predictions for this week's slate.

Matchup (w/ spread)	Over-Under	Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz, USA Today	K.C. Joyner, ESPN	Stephen White, SB Nation	Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3)	52	Panthers	Saints	Panthers	Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)	44.5	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7)	45	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (even)	40	Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals
Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-7)	45	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3)	52.5	Titans	Titans	Colts	Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers (-8) at Cleveland Browns	46.5	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)	47.5	Bills	Bills	Bills	Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-6)	47	Lions	Lions	Lions	Lions
Miami Dolphins (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams	40	Dolphins	Rams	Dolphins	Dolphins
New England Patriots (-13) at San Francisco 49ers	50.5	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)	44	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (-2.5)	50.5	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Packers
Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (-5.5)	46	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders

The first line that jumps out in Week 11 is the New England Patriots (-13) over the San Francisco 49ers. This is a game the Patriots should win handily, even if tight end Rob Gronkowski ends up missing the contest due to a chest injury suffered against the Seattle Seahawks. 

Martellus Bennett was excellent playing in Gronkowski's stead when the tight end was dealing with a hamstring injury earlier in the season and has done well to stay involved in the passing game. Bennett had seven receptions for 102 yards against the Seahawks. Tom Brady should have little trouble keeping the passing game humming if Gronk is unable to play.

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

LeGarrette Blount is on a massive scoring binge, with eight touchdowns in his last five games. The grind-it-out running back has done well to keep the offense moving at times, and the running game could receive a boost if the Patriots deem Dion Lewis ready to return to action after activating him from the PUP list in Week 10. Lewis is a capable rusher and pass-catcher, and he would add plenty of speed to the Patriots' attack.

The 49ers kept things close against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10, but the offense seems to have a hard ceiling of about 20 points. Even so, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick knows his 49ers counterpart, Chip Kelly, is liable to have some tricks up his sleeve, per ESPN.com's Mike Reiss:

"

This is a game-plan team so just because they have or haven’t done something on film doesn’t mean that we’re going to see it. They’ll have things specifically designed for us, so I’m sure there will be an element of making adjustments during the game and figuring out how this matchup game is going to be played as opposed to just what our scouting report says on the 49ers.

"

Belichick seemingly thinks of everything, so even if he sounds cautious, those making picks for this game shouldn't feel the same way. The Pats should have no trouble outpacing the 49ers on Sunday.

The Oakland Raiders' underdog days appear to be over, but that doesn't mean you should stop taking their odds. The Raiders are technically the home team against the Houston Texans in Week 11's Monday Night Football game in Mexico City but are just 5.5-point favorites.

Do yourself a favor and pick the Raiders to cover, and do it because of the quarterback matchup. Derek Carr has made massive strides in his third season, with 17 touchdowns against just three interceptions. He'll be just three weeks removed from a four-touchdown, 513-yard effort against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 8, and the Raiders bye in Week 10 has given him plenty of time to prepare for the Texans. 

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

The Texans defense has managed just four interceptions this year, but it has made life difficult for quarterbacks overall, allowing them a combined 83.0 quarterback rating, eight-toughest mark in the league per ESPN.com.

Then again, the Texans haven't faced much in the way of top-shelf quarterbacks, catching the Patriots while Tom Brady was suspended and the Tennessee Titans before Marcus Mariota really hit his stride. Carr could be their toughest test yet, and he could get help from the running game if Latavius Murray is up to the task against Houston's inconsistent run defense. 

As for the Texans, while Lamar Miller has done plenty of excellent work in the run game, the passing attack leaves much to be desired. Sure, Brock Osweiler threw two touchdowns against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 10, but he also managed just 99 passing yards on 27 attempts. On the season, his 5.61 yards per attempt is positively anemic, and his total QBR ranks 29th in the NFL among qualified passers, per ESPN.com.

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Worse yet, Osweiler is very familiar with Raiders' pass-rusher Khalil Mack, and not in a good way, as ESPN.com's Paul Gutierrez notes in a blog post by colleague Sarah Barshop:

"

The last time the All-Pro defensive end/outside linebacker saw Brock Osweiler, he sacked him five times. That was last December when Osweiler was still with Denver. And after a relatively slow start (one sack in his first five games), Mack has turned it on of late with six sacks in his last four games, including two apiece in his last two games. No doubt Mack will be motivated by the bright lights Monday night’s international showcase in Mexico City will bring.

"

Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins hasn't scored since Oct. 9, and rookie Will Fuller has also cooled off in recent weeks. The Raiders' weakest link is their secondary, but even this shoddy unit should be able to temper Osweiler. 

The Raiders certainly aren't flying under anyone's radar as they battle for AFC West supremacy, but this long-suffering franchise could have a true coming out party on Monday night, with Carr leading the way against his older brother's former team. 

Note: Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, Nov. 17 at noon ET. All expert predictions are straight-up, not against the spread.