Miami Dolphins vs. San Diego Chargers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

San Diego apparently doesn't care much for sustained success, as over the last couple of seasons, the Chargers are just 1-8 straight up and 2-7 against the spread in games following outright victories. San Diego falls into that slot again when it hosts the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

Point spread: The Chargers opened as four-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.5-16.8 Chargers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins, who looked dead in the water following a loss at home to the Tennessee Titans a few weeks ago, have suddenly won three games in a row, including a 27-23 decision over the New York Jets last week. Miami fell down by a field goal with just under six minutes to go, but it won the game on Kenyan Drake's 96-yard kickoff return for a touchdown, a defensive stop and a clock-killing first down.

On the day, the Dolphins were outgained by New York 332-274 but held short edges in first downs and time of possession. Ultimately, in a game decided by one play, Miami made that play.

Just before that, the Dolphins beat the Buffalo Bills 28-25, and before that, they punked the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-15. At 4-4 on the season, Miami trails the 6-3 Denver Broncos by a game-and-a-half in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Bolts bounced back from a defeat to Denver two weeks ago to beat Tennessee last week 43-35. San Diego grabbed an early 16-0 lead on the Titans, fell down 21-19 but later came up with a pair of defensive scores to pull away for the victory and the cover as a 3.5-point favorite.

The Chargers clicked for 476 yards of offense last week, including 208 on the ground, as running back Melvin Gordon broke loose for 196, including 47 on a late carry that iced the game. Meanwhile, the San Diego defense limited Tennessee's third-ranked running attack to just 80 yards, which helped the Chargers dominate time of possession by a 36-24 split.

San Diego is now 3-1 SU over its last four games and 4-1 ATS over its last five.

Smart pick

These teams have met each of the last three seasons; the Dolphins won and covered twice in Miami, while last season, the Chargers did the same in San Diego. So the visiting team, after flying cross-country, is 0-3 both SU and ATS in this series the last three seasons. Despite their recent troubles converting two-game winning streaks, the Chargers look like the smart choice here.

Betting trends

The Dolphins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Chargers.

The total has gone under in the Dolphins' last 13 games against the Chargers.

The Chargers are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after a win.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.