NFL Picks Week 10: Examining Recent Odds and Expert Predictions

The winless Cleveland Browns kick off Week 10 in the NFL as road underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night, likely giving bettors a confident team to pick against as we look to predict all that's going to unfold in this week's slate.

Of course, the Browns are a tougher team than their 0-8 record indicates, and Odds Shark's eight-point spread is hardly insurmountable. 

There's always room for upsets and shock results in the NFL, a result of the chaotic nature of the sport and the league's commitment to maintaining parity.

If you're looking to make picks this week, here's some guidance in the form of the latest odds and expert predictions from around the web. All predictions in the table below are straight up, not against the spread.

Matchup (w/ spread)	Over-Under	Joel Thorman, SB Nation	Dave Richard, CBS Sports	Matt Bowen, ESPN	Andrew Lynch, Fox Sports	FiveThirtyEight Probabilities
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-8)	44.5	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens 81%
Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)	49	Broncos	Saints	Saints	Saints	Broncos 59%
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans	49.5	Packers	Titans	Packers	Packers	Packers 65%
Kanas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (-3)	44	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Panthers	Chiefs 52%
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-3)	41.5	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Redskins	Redskins 53%
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)	46	Buccaneers	Bears	Bears	Bears	Buccaneers 59%
Atlanta Falcons (even) at Philadelphia Eagles	50	Eagles	Falcons	Falcons	Eagles	Eagles 54%
Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets (-2)	40	Jets	Jets	Rams	Rams	Jets 64%
Houston Texans (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars	42.5	Texans	Texans	Texans	Texans	Texans 89%
Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-4)	48.5	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers 62%
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-13.5)	48	Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals	Cardinals 85%
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)	50	Cowboys	Steelers	Cowboys	Cowboys	Steelers 52%
Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (-7.5)	49	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots 66%
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (-2.5)	47	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants 57%

San Diego (-4) Will Cover At Home Against Miami

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

The San Diego Chargers might not be long for America's Finest City with voters rejecting funding for a new downtown stadium, so look for them to really make these games in crumbling Qualcomm Stadium count. 

When the Miami Dolphins came to visit last season, the Chargers thought they were indeed playing their actual last game in San Diego and promptly issued the visiting side a 30-14 beatdown. 

With the stunning emergence of Melvin Gordon—196 rushing yards, 65 receiving yards and a score against the Tennessee Titans last week—and the continued excellence of Philip Rivers, the Dolphins are going to be hard-pressed to stop this high-flying Chargers attack.

Gordon has been scoring touchdowns all season long but has really hit his stride as a ball-carrier in the last couple of weeks, moving the chains and helping keep the Bolts in manageable third-down situations.

Check out his highlights from San Diego's 43-35 win over the Titans, per the NFL:

The over-under for this game is 48.5 points, and you can be pretty sure these two teams will go over. The Dolphins have scored at least 23 points in each of their last three games, and the cardiac Chargers have played only two games this year in which the combined score was below 49 points. 

The Dolphins have their own downhill runner in Jay Ajayi, who is enjoying a breakout year and should give the Chargers' banged-up linebacker corps problems throughout the game. Ryan Tannehill is middling at best but has managed to avoid turning the ball over in the three-game win streak the Fins are riding into this game.

The South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Omar Kelly noted that an improved offensive line has benefited the embattled quarterback: 

He'll have to be careful against the Bolts, who boast a fine pass-rushing tandem in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram and are second in the league with 11 interceptions. 

While the Dolphins' prospects are looking up, the Chargers' season pattern should continue as they hold on in another close (but not too close), high-scoring affair.

             

Packers Will Beat Titans (-2.5) On the Road

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

While the Tennessee Titans have made strides in defending their home turf this season after going 0-8 there last year, they are still only 2-3 at Nissan Stadium and have a tough Week 10 opponent in the Green Bay Packers. 

The Titans are coming off a deflating loss to the Chargers, a game in which their defense gave up 476 total yards and failed to force a turnover. The Packers are coming off back-to-back losses against the Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts, but the offense has performed fairly well in those efforts despite a patchwork running game. 

Versatile wide receiver Ty Montgomery led the Packers with seven carries for 54 yards against Indy while also putting in his usual work in the passing game. Undrafted rookie Don Jackson had little impact against the Colts, but the Packers could see James Starks as well as tight end Jared Cook return in Week 10 to play Tennessee. 

“If you want to put it in a classification or category, I’d say ‘limited,’ but we’re going to cut them loose today,” Packers coach Mike McCarthy said Wednesday, per Madison.com's Jason Wilde.

The return of Starks to the lineup would free Montgomery to spend more time at wideout and force the Titans defense to respect the run game, limiting their opportunities to disrupt the brilliant Aaron Rodgers. 

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Tennessee's own offense is predicated on a bruising rushing attack featuring DeMarco Murray and rookie Derrick Henry, but the Packers could slow them down Sunday.

Green Bay is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry and 75.8 rushing yards per game this season, the best marks in the league, per ESPN.com. This could mean that second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota finds himself in a duel with Rodgers.

Though Mariota has dependable tight end Delanie Walker and an emerging scoring threat in wide receiver Rishard Matthews, that's still a battle that should go to the veteran. If the Packers can cobble together any semblance of a running game, they should extend the Titans' woes at home.