Fantasy Football Week 11: Weekly Fantasy Trends Report

We seek to leverage information into our daily fantasy football lineups each week. The news cycle in the NFL churns out a stream of updates. As DFS managers, we are tasked with sifting through the news in order to identify the meaningful and actionable angles.

The Seattle Seahawks' Doug Baldwin is warming up and could be on the front end of another scoring bender, while the Philadelphia Eagles' soft secondary proves inviting for DFS upside.

We touch on this situation and several other key nuggets influencing fantasy football in Week 11. Join us in detailing notable news and trends from around the NFL as they pertain to the DFS market. As always, please feel free to share your thoughts and questions for the week ahead in the comments below.

Conflicting Messages Concerning Seattle's Backfield

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We find some conflicting news regarding the Seattle Seahawks' backfield emerging this week, as a report from John Boyle of the team's site reveals the coaching staff believes Thomas Rawls is ready to play a considerable amount in his return from injury in Week 11.

ESPN's Sheil Kapadia believes C.J. Prosise will lead the backfield in touches, "The plan for now seems to be to see how much Rawls can do but ease him in. Prosise is the favorite to lead the Seahawks in touches Sunday, and Pope will likely rotate in."

With Prosise handling more than 70 percent of the snaps from the backfield last week and proving extremely capable as a receiver—hauling in all but one target this season—we're inclined to side with Kapadia's assessment that the rookie is likely to lead the team in touches and snaps this week.

Found at only $4,200 DraftKings and $4,900 on FanDuel, we continue to believe Prosise is an intriguing option in tournaments, while cash usage is ruled out for both Rawls and Prosise given the mystery.

Robert Woods a Strong Sleeper in Week 11

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The Buffalo Bills' Robert Woods has enjoyed a team-high 24 percent of the team's targets since the start of Week 3. This span is significant since it marks when Sammy Watkins was sidelined with his enduring foot injury.

While Woods' production has been somewhat inconsistent, such steady usage helps support upside as a tournament play in daily fantasy competition. Recently, however, Woods has been thriving, as his six receptions on passes of at least 10 yards downfield in Week 9 against the Seattle Seahawks marked a career high on such receptions.

With the Cincinnati Bengals ranked 28th in pass coverage on Pro Football Focus and Woods costing only $4,900 on DraftKings and $5,400 on FanDuel, we find a nice blend of floor and ceiling for the Bills' top target.

Sammie Coates Is Still Ailing, Adding Upside for Eli Rogers

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The Pittsburgh Steelers' big-play threat Sammie Coates is dealing with two broken fingers. As ESPN's Jeremy Fowler aptly described, Coates' "hand's a mess."

Coates is expected to continue to play through the injury, but his utter lack of effectiveness and efficiency over the past month has proven glaring as he's caught just one of his 11 targets since the start of Week 6.

This lack of production and reliability from Coates means slot maven Eli Rogers earns increased value and usage. Rogers is second only to Antonio Brown among receivers on the team in routes, targets and yards over the past two weeks, consuming a valuable 16.7 percent of the team's targets over this span.

Still fitted with reasonable pricing, Rogers costs just $4,300 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel. We can enjoy serious savings while still getting a sizable share of the Steelers' choice matchup with the Cleveland Browns this Sunday.

Blake Bortles Is a Fine Fantasy Sleeper for Week 11

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In real football, it's somewhat clear Blake Bortles isn't playing well this season. The Jacksonville Jaguars' signal-caller is 28th in passer rating and 30th in yards per dropback with a lowly rate of just 5.89 yards.

In fantasy football, however, Bortles has been quite capable, as he's 12th in fantasy points per game among signal-callers in ESPN leagues. In the context of daily fantasy production, Bortles has scored at least 19 fantasy points on DraftKings in six of nine games this season.

We generally want our quarterback to triple his price (per thousand) to meet cost in cash games. In English, this means since Bortles costs $5,400 this week on DraftKings, we'd want 16.2 fantasy points (5.4 times three) to meet value. This makes his pattern of exceeding value relevant for daily investors.

The Detroit Lions have allowed 2.40 points per drive to opponents—third most in the NFL, and a touchdown on 27.9 percent of drives, well above league average of 21.2 percent. Given these soft defensive metrics, it's fitting to find the Lions rank 31st in fantasy points allowed per game to signal-callers on DraftKings' scoring model.

Facing a Lions team fifth in points per drive, the Jaguars' game-script could trend pass-heavy as they enter Detroit as sizable dogs in a game with a robust point total, per Odds Shark. Don't sweat Bortles' standing as a subpar real quarterback, as his fantasy profile suggest he's a stable investment this week.

LeSean "Shady" McCoy Is an Ideal Fantasy Foundation Piece

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The Pittsburgh Steelers' Le'Veon Bell is the chalk option among tailbacks this week—which means he's the most identifiable star of the Week 11 slate and likely to have the slate's highest ownership percentage.

It's safe to assume Bell will roll all over the Cleveland Browns, but for differentiation in tournaments, each position requires a key pivot from the chalk commodities. This week, we identify the Buffalo Bills' LeSean McCoy as the ideal alternative to Bell for those looking to enjoy some savings while still retaining valuable cost certainty.

McCoy heads to Cincinnati to face the Bengals this Sunday in a surprisingly nice matchup. The Bengals have ceded the ninth-most rushing yards to opponents this season on a generous 4.42 yards per carry. Cincinnati has allowed more yards before contact per rush and after initial contact per rush than league averages for both metrics.

"Shady," as the kids call him, is averaging the sixth-most fantasy points per game among tailbacks in ESPN leagues thanks to netting a robust 101.8 yards from scrimmage per game as one of just seven backs averaging as many as 100 total yards per game.

A heavy workload over 19 touches per game buoys a high floor for McCoy, who we find at a discount from the elite tier of tailbacks at $6,900 on DraftKings and $7,500 on FanDuel.

Doug Baldwin Offers WR1 Upside at WR3 Pricing

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Around this time last season, the Seattle Seahawks' Doug Baldwin was 40th among receivers with just 6.9 fantasy points per game through Week 10. From Week 11 on, Baldwin was the highest scoring fantasy wideout on a per-game basis thanks to 11 touchdowns over his final seven games.

Through Week 9 this season, Baldwin ranked 27th in fantasy points per game among receivers, but just scored three touchdowns against the New England this past Sunday night.

With Russell Wilson finding his touch again and Baldwin thriving in response, it's time to load up on shares of the talented wideout while his price is still deflated on daily fantasy markets.

This Sunday the Seahawks host the Philadelphia Eagles, a team that has just one cornerback ranked in the top 102 on Pro Football Focus' grading at the position—and that player, Leodis McKelvin, grades out at 62nd among cornerbacks.

With such a soft secondary and the proven scoring rapport between Wilson and Baldwin, getting in before inflation hits could prove profitable.

Rob Gronkowski Misses Practice on Wednesday

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Even "Gronkey Kong" has to watch for his health, as the New England Patriots' Rob Gronkowski's chest injury held him out of practice on Wednesday, according to ESPN's Mike Reiss.

A report from the Boston Herald's Jeff Howe reveals Gronkowski wasn't able to fly to an endorsement event earlier this week, suggesting added doubt for his availability in San Francisco this Sunday against the generous 49ers defense.

This potential absence is significant since Tom Brady has thrown 34.9 percent of his targets this season and a whopping 47.4 percent of his fantasy points to tight ends Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett.

The 49ers have allowed the highest touchdown-per-drive rate and the most points per drive to opponents since the start of Week 2, while the Patriots are the heaviest favorites of the entire slate, per Odds Shark.

With New England expected to move the ball freely on a soft defensive opponent, shares of Bennett—just $3,700 on DraftKings and $5,200 on FanDuel, are entirely inviting. We also appreciate Julian Edelman more if Gronkowski sits, as he has 12 more targets than any other player since Brady has returned and would likely assume an even higher target share.

Target information, fantasy points, per-drive and defensive allowance rates sourced from an ESPN database.