Fantasy Football Week 11: Wednesday's Daily Fantasy Market Report

Daily fantasy football players are tasked with converting the news and trends from around the NFL each week into actionable and successful investments in the DFS marketplace.

The NFL news cycle is always churning out meaningful updates, which we must sift through in order to gain an edge. For example, the Seattle Seahawks just released tailback Christine Michael, and the New England Patriots' Rob Gronkowski was unable to fly to an event on Tuesday. We consume and convert this information into fantasy-relevant analysis in this piece.

We also detail several notable trends and matchup metrics that could prove influential for the week ahead in daily fantasy football. Join us in discussing several key news items affecting the daily fantasy football market for Week 11, and please share your thoughts and lineup questions in the comments below.

L.A.'s Jared Goff Set to Debut on Sunday

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The Los Angeles Rams are last in the NFL with just 1.29 points per drive and have six games this season with one or zero offensive touchdowns. In fact, the team is the first since the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers to have won two games in a season without scoring an offensive touchdown.

The Rams' Case Keenum is last in the NFL in quarterback rating and one of just three qualifying quarterbacks with more interceptions than touchdowns. Given these struggles, the team has finally turned to top overall pick Jared Goff as its starting signal-caller, per ESPN's Chris Mortensen.

Given the shift, we're fading already deflated shares of tailback Todd Gurley and avoiding the team's passing weapons, even the surging Kenny Britt, while such mystery surrounds Goff's composure at this level.

This article is less about Goff and his impending NFL debut and more about how we should build around the Miami Dolphins' defense/special teams in daily fantasy competition this week. The Dolphins' pass rush has proven elite of late and now ranks third in the NFL in pressure rate—the percentage of hits, hurries and sacks per opposing dropbacks.

With such a languid offensive foe and reasonable pricing on both markets—we find the Dolphins at $2,900 on DraftKings and $4,800 on FanDuel—we can build around Miami at a discount while still netting a high ceiling for production.

Rob Gronkowski's Status for Trip to San Francisco in Doubt

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NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported Gronkowski wasn't able to fly to an endorsement event given his chest injury. More specifically, reports suggest Gronkowski is dealing with an injured lung suffered in Week 10's loss to the Seahawks.

If Gronkowski is indeed having difficulty flying early this week, it then brings into question his ability to make the long flight west to San Francisco for his team's tilt with the 49ers.

We're still in the speculation phase of the week with regards to this injury, but as massive favorites of nearly two touchdowns, per Odds Shark, it's possible the Patriots could rest their superstar tight end in a game they're likely to win.

If Gronkowski does sit, shares of Martellus Bennett, who just delivered his third 100-yard outing of the season in Week 10, are entirely inviting given his rapport with Tom Brady and likely uptick in targets and routes.

Bennett is priced at $3,700 on DraftKings and $5,200 on FanDuel and could be among the best building blocks at this shallow position this Sunday.

Seattle Waives Tailback Christine Michael

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Some pundits and even coaches deemed Michael's resurgence as a starting NFL running back for the Seahawks earlier this season "The Awakening."

It appears he fell asleep, as the team released Michael to waivers on Tuesday despite leading the team in carries, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns this season, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.

ESPN.com's Sheil Kapadia detailed how the team is ready to have Thomas Rawls resume his valuable early-down role now that he's healed from an enduring injury, while C.J. Prosise could serve a dual-threat role as the team's top receiving threat from the backfield.

With a home setup against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday afternoon, shares of Prosise and his recent surge in receiving success—he's caught all but one target this season—prove intriguing on DraftKings' full-point PPR scoring model.

Rob Kelley Could Continue to Shine as Starter

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Since the start of Week 8, only the San Diego Chargers' Melvin Gordon has averaged more rushing attempts per game than the Washington Redskins' Rob Kelley.

A recent report from ESPN.com's John Keim suggested Kelley has secured his workhorse role over Matt Jones, who leads the team in carries and yards on the year but was a healthy scratch this past Sunday.

The following quote from coach Jay Gruden, per Keim, is quite revealing as to the team's backfield breakdown: "We're not giving up on Matt. But when you can only dress three running backs, the third one we would like to have some impact on special teams. That's not always going to be the case. Sometimes we may not need our third running back to be on special teams, we can get Matt up."

The Redskins play the Green Bay Packers this week. Green Bay has allowed 112.3 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks, 11th-most in the league. The Packers have ceded 4.66 yards per carry since Week 6, 10th-most in the league. The team could be without key run-stopper Jake Ryan this week, as the interior linebacker injured his ankle on the team's opening kickoff last week and didn't return.

Kelley has rushed for a combined 184 yards in his two recent starts and yet is still reasonably priced at just $4,400 on DraftKings and $5,400 on FanDuel. If he can find the end zone, Kelley is due to exceed value as Washington's feature back.

Marcus Mariota Delivers Rare Upside at a Discount

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The Tennessee Titans' Marcus Mariota has averaged 24 fantasy points per game in ESPN standard leagues since the start of Week 5. This rich rate ties Mariota with Drew Brees for the most points per game in the league over this stretch.

Mariota has produced a league-high 19 total touchdowns since Week 5 and has developed an elite rapport in the red zone, per ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky.

In the red zone, "Mariota has a 116.3 passer rating, with 30 touchdown passes, no interceptions, a completion percentage of 65.4 and has taken just two sacks. Those trump his numbers on the rest of the field: an 81.2 rating, 10 TDs, 18 interceptions, a 62.7 percentage and 50 sacks."

The Indianapolis Colts, this week's opponent, have yielded the fourth-most fantasy points per game to enemy arms in ESPN leagues. As a defense overall, the Colts have ceded 2.32 points per drive, sixth-most in the league. With a touchdown allowed on 24 percent of opposing drives, the Colts are a decidedly soft defense—the league-average allowance is 21.2 percent.

Coming at $6,700 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel, considerably lower than the upper tier at the position, Mariota is a legitimate candidate for the top fantasy spot among signal-callers this week.

New England's LeGarrette Blount Is a Building-Block Back This Week

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It's a fun narrative to consider the San Francisco 49ers are the only team he hasn't faced on the road in his long career, but the real fantasy angle is investing in shares of the Patriots' bruising back, LeGarrette Blount.

Blount leads the NFL with 12 rushing touchdowns on the season in part thanks to enjoying 15 carries within five yards of the goal line, second only to the Chargers' Gordon and his 19 such rushing attempts. Both backs have produced eight touchdowns on their carries within five yards of the goal line.

In addition to such rewarding scoring opportunities for Blount on an elite offense, we love this matchup with the soft San Francisco front seven. The 49ers have allowed 180.4 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields, 25.5 percent more than any other team in the league. Prior to Week 10, the 49ers had allowed at least 200 yards rushing to their past three opponents.

With such an inviting setup for Blount, his pricing of $6,400 on DraftKings and $7,300 on FanDuel proves palatable and still leaves room for profit. With a high floor for at least 15 touches and a stellar multi-touchdown ceiling, Blount is a fine building block in both cash and tournament lineups.

Stefon Diggs Is PPR Gold in New Scheme

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Per the Elias Sports Bureau, via ESPN Stats & Info, the Minnesota Vikings' Stefon Diggs "is the first player in NFL history with at least 13 receptions in consecutive games." We're in the midst of the 97th season in league history, so this is quite the accomplishment.

As Mark Craig of the Star Tribune reported on the eve of Week 10, quarterback Sam Bradford is heavily allocating targets to Diggs as his main possession weapon to move the chains.

"I’ve said it from the beginning that I’m very comfortable with Stefon," Bradford said. "He’s one of the guys I felt like we hit it off in terms of chemistry. I think last game he just did a great job of kind of finding some of the soft spots in the zone underneath, which is why we utilized him so much in the quick-game stuff."

While Diggs' price has risen as a reflection of his record-setting reception pattern—he's $7,000 on DraftKings and $6,800 on FanDuel—the fact he's consumed an awesome 37.5 percent of the team's targets over the past week supports a high floor, especially on DraftKings' points-per-reception scoring model.

Alshon Jeffery's Four-Game Suspension Creates Value

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The Chicago Bears' Alshon Jeffery will miss the next four games due to a suspension under the league's performance enhancing drugs policy, according to Schefter.

Jeffery was in the midst of a strange season, ranked 23rd among receivers in targets and 19th in yards and yet 39th in fantasy points per game thanks to just one touchdown and a lack of receiving efficiency—his catch rate is just 56.3 on the season.

Now that he's out of the picture for the next month, we find increased value for wideout Cameron Meredith. We all remember the epic two-game stretch of strong production for Meredith from Week 5 to Week 6 that saw him tally 243 yards and 20 receptions. An uptick in usage with Jeffery's 23.1 percent of the target share sidelined is likely.

The New York Giants have ceded 182.6 yards per game to receivers, eighth-most in the league. The Bears enter North Jersey as touchdown underdogs, per Odds Shark, which could lead their game script to trend pass-happy. With modest pricing in daily fantasy this week—Meredith is $4,100 on DraftKings and $5,600 on FanDuel—there is viable interest in tournaments for the undrafted receiver.

Target information, fantasy points, per-drive and defensive allowance rates sourced from an ESPN database.