Fantasy Football Week 6: Thursday's Daily Fantasy Market Report

Daily fantasy football players are tasked with converting the news and trends from around the NFL each week into actionable and successful investments in the DFS marketplace.

The news cycle in the NFL is always churning out meaningful updates, which we must sift through in order to gain an edge.

As a telling example from this week in the NFL, we learned that the San Diego Chargers are missing yet another top cornerback for Thursday night's matchup with the Denver Broncos, per Eric D. Williams of ESPN. This could spell major upside for the Broncos passing attack, which we discuss in this piece.

We also detail several notable injuries and matchup metrics that could prove influential for the week ahead in daily fantasy football.

Join us in discussing several key news items affecting the daily fantasy football market for Week 6, and please share your thoughts and lineup questions in the comments below.

With Jeremy Hill Ailing, Giovani Bernard Gains Value in DFS for Week 6

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The Cincinnati Bengals' Jeremy Hill was limited throughout practice last week and ended up playing only 15 of the team's 70 offensive snaps as a result, per Pro Football Focus. Afforded just 21.4 percent of the snaps and four touches, Hill left investors in the lurch with 12 yards in the Week 5 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

Hill's backfield peer Giovani Bernard earned the start in Dallas and played 53 of 70 snaps for a 75.7 percent snap rate in the game, per PFF. Bernard tallied 96 yards from scrimmage in the contest.

Beat scribe Paul Dehner Jr. of The Cincinnati Enquirer warned us of a potential repeat of last week, as Hill has been a limited participant in practice this week. Elie Jesse, the weekend sports anchor WLWT in Cincinnati, reported that Hill has had his arm in a sling this week, as he's dealing with what's been described as a chest/shoulder ailment.

With the New England Patriots positioned as sizable home favorites over the Bengals this Sunday, per Odds Shark, the game script could prove pass-heavy for Cincinnati. A trend such as this favors Bernard's skill set in the receiving phase, while Hill's lingering injury and the precedent from Week 5's usage pattern also supports a higher usage floor for Bernard.

Bernard costs just $4,600 on DraftKings and $5,700 on FanDuel this week. Given DraftKings' point-per-reception scoring model, shares of the diminutive dynamo on that format could prove profitable.

Colin Kaepernick Is a Daring Investment for DFS Tournaments

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

We're not entirely enthused with the fantasy potential the San Francisco 49ers' Colin Kaepernick claims this Sunday in Buffalo. The signal-caller has earned his first start of the season in Orchard Park this week against the Bills, per Cam Inman of The Mercury News. 

The intriguing part for those willing to put Kaepernick into a tournament lineup for differentiation and contrarian purposes is that he's priced at just $5,000 on DraftKings and $6,400 on FanDuel.

Given the modest asking price on DraftKings and his rushing ability, we can understand if you are willing to take the inherent risk purely based on what we can expect to be low ownership this week.

According to ESPN Stats & Info, the 49ers have run a zone-read play 99 times this season, three times more than any other NFL team. Six of the team's nine offensive scores have come from this formation, the most in the NFL. Since 2012, Kaepernick's seven touchdowns on such plays is tied with the Bills' LeSean McCoy, who also played under Chip Kelly's zone-read-heavy scheme, for the third-most touchdowns from this set.

The 49ers are 1-11 in their past 12 road games and have been outscored 133-58 in their past four road games against AFC opponents. Even if the 49ers get drubbed, as precedent suggests, it could lead to some soft garbage-time numbers for Kaepernick.

It takes a daring investor to put Kaepernick in lineups this week, but for larger tournaments, such a move could prove rewarding.

Broncos Receivers Could Thrive Against Depleted San Diego Secondary

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Denver Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (10) runs after catching a pass between Tampa Bay Buccaneers middle linebacker Kwon Alexander (58) and strong safety Chris Conte (23) during the second half of an NFL football game in Tampa, Fla., Sunday, Oct.

ESPN's Eric D. Williams reported that San Diego Chargers cornerback Brandon Flowers has been ruled out for Thursday night's game against the visiting Denver Broncos.

With Jason Verrett already on injured reserve, this means the Chargers are without their top two cornerbacks for the division battle. The Broncos' tandem of talented veteran wideouts, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, could thrive against a depleted secondary.

Sanders enjoys a dominant market share of the Bronco passing offense, with 32.5 percent of the team's targets. Thomas has netted 21.4 percent of the passing volume but has caught an astounding 78.8 percent of his targets.

Sanders' share is the highest rate in the league—no other receiver commands a higher percentage of his respective team's targets. This means he delivers a bankable yardage floor thanks to such rich usage.

Shares of Sanders are entirely affordable on both markets, as he's $6,800 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel. Thomas, who has scored in three straight games, is similarly priced at $6,800 on DraftKings and $7,300 on FanDuel.

Given both receivers have established a valuable rapport with Trevor Siemian, shares of both in various lineups could prove rewarding. With Sanders demanding such a rich share of the offense, however, he's our preferred investment in this favorable setup.

Key Injury to the L.A. Rams Secondary Means Marvin Jones Could Shine

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

The Los Angeles Rams' Trumaine Johnson ranks 17th in coverage grading among NFL cornerbacks this season, allowing just 10.5 yards per completion, per Pro Football Focus. 

Johnson would have likely shadowed the Detroit Lions' Marvin Jones this Sunday, but as Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network reported, Johnson is slated to miss at least this week with a high ankle injury. 

This means Jones could enjoy more favorable matchups against lower portions of the Rams secondary, as the Lions wideout leads the NFL in yardage thanks to his unique big-play prowess. Rams cornerback Lamarcus Joyner is allowing a completion rate of 71 percent when targeted this season, compared to Johnson's 59.5 rate, per PFF. 

Jones has been somewhat quiet over the past several weeks since his monstrous 205-yard effort in Week 3. Yet with a choice matchup and a valuable target share of the Lions offense, he's a fine daily fantasy asset for this meeting with a depleted secondary. 

Eddie Lacy Could Have the Backfield to Himself on Sunday

Dylan Buell/Getty Images

GREEN BAY, WI - OCTOBER 09: Eddie Lacy #27 of the Green Bay Packers is tackled by Janoris Jenkins #20 of the New York Giants in the second quarter at Lambeau Field on October 9, 2016 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

It appeared that the Green Bay Packers' James Starks could earn a sizable workload out of the backfield for this week's game against the Dallas Cowboys. Incumbent starter Eddie Lacy suffered an ankle injury in Week 5 and has had his ankle heavily taped this week.

Yet it now appears that Lacy could get the solo share of the backfield workload with Starks suddenly looking questionable for the game with a mysterious issue the team hasn't yet disclosed, per Rob Demovsky of ESPN.

The Cowboys rank 28th in rush defense grading on Pro Football Focus, while Lacy looked great before exiting last Sunday night's game against the Giants due to the ankle ailment.

We find Lacy at an inviting discount on DraftKings at just $5,800, while he's a bit pricier on FanDuel at $7,000. If he does earn the start with Starks sidelined, investors could find potential profit, given Lacy would likely have low ownership on both fantasy platforms in a game with favorable matchup metrics.

Jordan Reed Evaluated for Another Concussion

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

Jordan Reed is being evaluated for what is potentially his sixth concussion in the past six years, per Stephen Czarda of the Washington Redskins' website.

The immensely talented tight end has averaged a robust 10.5 targets over the past two games and is on pace for over 100 receptions and 1,000 yards, even though he hasn't truly hit his statistical stride yet.

The initial worry is that Reed is forced to miss this week's matchup with the rival Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles have allowed just 10.75 yards per game to tight ends this season, the lowest allowance in the NFL. Then again, Philly hasn't faced an elite option like Reed.

Unfortunately, they might not have to, as concussion issues have plagued Reed's career. The long-term concern is that Reed would sit out for several weeks, if not longer, as his health is paramount to his playing availability.

We certainly hope Reed is cleared and isn't facing an enduring absence, yet we'd rather find other options at tight end in daily fantasy play, given Reed is among the most expensive assets at the position and faces both health and matchup concerns.

Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart Set to Face Saints

Rainier Ehrhardt/Associated Press

According to Mike Triplett of ESPN, we could see Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart return to action for the Carolina Panthers this week.

The beleaguered Panthers sit at just 1-4 and badly need their top offensive playmakers in the fold, especially considering that Newton delivered five touchdowns and a passer rating of 122.1 in the Superdome last season, per Triplett.

Stewart could feast on a soft Saints rush defense, as New Orleans has ceded 4.6 yards per carry to tailbacks this season and a league-high eight rushing scores.

Even without a discount on Newton, his production precedent against New Orleans and the fact that the Saints are allowing the most points per drive in the league present uniquely inviting matchup metrics for the superstar signal-caller. Newton is still quite expensive despite missing this past week with a concussion, as he costs $8,100 on DraftKings and $8,900 on FanDuel.

Stewart, however, is reasonably priced at just $5,100 on DraftKings and $6,300 on FanDuel. Getting multiple shares of offensive players in a potential points-fest is wise, especially with Stewart's deflated pricing on DraftKings.

In a game with the week's highest implied total, per Odds Shark, a division shootout could prove statistically rewarding for Newton and Stewart.

Data such as target rate, fantasy points and yardage allowance sourced from an ESPN database.