USA vs. France: TV Time, Live Stream, Prediction for 2016 Olympic Basketball
With group basketball play drawing to a close in Rio, Sunday's meeting against France's finest is Team USA's last chance before the quarterfinals to erase any lingering doubt about its near-misses versus Australia and Serbia being anything other than anomalies.
Friday's 94-91 nail-biting victory over the Serbians didn't do anything to reinforce the United States' intended dominance. It barely beat an inferior opponent.
Yet somehow, even at its most vulnerable, it seldom felt like Team USA would actually lose against either opponent. The Americans are nothing if not capable of beating any opponent in this tournament without ever approaching the peak implied by its roster makeup.
Thus, Olympic basketball has been reconstructed into a measuring stick for the rest of world. Australia stands alone on that front right now (sorry Serbia)—the lone squad with a puncher's hope of pushing the United States toward an unthinkable loss.
But if there's room enough for one more country on that island, France, buoyed by the fall of Spain and age of Argentina, along with its own bounty of NBA talent, is it.
When: Sunday, Aug. 14, at 1:15 p.m. ET
Where: Carioca Arena 1; Rio de Janeiro
TV: NBCSN
Live Stream: NBC.com
Invincible?
The search for meaning behind Team USA's 98-88 scare against Australia is still ongoing.
Did it say more about the Aussies as an up-and-coming power the United States took too lightly? Or is the target on Team USA's back just not coated in Teflon?
"That's the first real, real international game that we've had," U.S. head coach Mike Krzyzewski said afterward, per USA Today's Sam Amick. "The first two games we played, we were significantly better than those teams [China and Venezuela]. This is the real world now, and that was good for us."
That talk still feels a little manufactured. The Americans have been complimentary of their opponents, but even the close calls came amid a perfect storm of unlikely circumstances: Kevin Durant, Paul George and Klay Thompson shot a combined 8-of-31 from the floor against Australia.
DeMarcus Cousins and DeAndre Jordan battled foul trouble out of pure shock for the Aussies' play style. That's something Serbia showed Friday with rising star Nikola Jokic and feisty Miroslav Raduljica, who made hard contact whenever possible.
Paul George let Matthew Dellavedova get in his head Wednesday. Kevin Durant looked surprised that someone, particularly Andrew Bogut, would dare challenge him at the rim. The entire team spent a great deal of the first three quarters settling for low-percentage jumpers, something it went back to in excruciating fashion late against Serbia.
All the credit in the world belongs to both Australia and Serbia as worthy challengers who didn't back down. Dellavedova needs to release his own series of cardio workouts entitled "Basketball Gnat," for one. But most of Team USA's struggles from either game weren't the result of exacerbated weaknesses.
They were correctable mistakes.
Still, Team USA resisted significant adjustments for much of either game, often allowing opponents to dictate the speed and defensive tone. France, then, is the gauge against which Team USA will see if it actually has anything to worry about.
More Carmelo?
Logically speaking, Team USA shouldn't want Anthony to fire at will out of necessity. And for his part, after becoming the United States' all-time leading Olympics scorer Wednesday (and adding another 12 points Friday), he has nothing left to prove.
But Croatia's Bojan Bogdanovic dropped an Olympics-high 33 points during his team's Wednesday win over Brazil, displacing Anthony's 31-point swish-fest against Australia from the top slot.
Anthony cannot stand for this. There is plenty of basketball left to play in Rio, but we cannot rule out another offensive blitz from Team USA's old head, especially after such a quiet game against Serbia. If he goes for Bogdanovic's game-high title, he might as well chase that 40- or 50-burger—you know, just to be safe.
More seriously, there is something unique about Anthony's ability to shine brighter than everyone while playing with the best basketball players alive.
The United States has milked All-Universe Melo in small, measured doses thus far. The Americans might as well close out the preliminary round by turning him loose against a French frontcourt headlined by Nicolas Batum, Boris Diaw and Rudy Gobert.
Beware the Stifle Tower and Co.
Speaking of France's formidable frontcourt: If Australia set a blueprint to beat Team USA, France has the tools to improve upon it.
The French have two of the most mobile bigs of the tournament: Diaw and Gobert. Both rank top five in blocks per game at Rio, and they have the inside-out speed to funnel Team USA's shooters toward the paint.
Coaxing the United States' guards and wings where they've been least comfortable creates spacing issues whenever Cousins or Jordan are on the floor. Neither will have room to roll toward the basket, and they'll end up walling off their own players.
Of course, if France plays this card, Team USA can deploy a super-ultra-mega "Death Squad." As Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes explained:
"It might seem strange to counsel downsizing after a game in which the Americans' work on the glass was one of the only reasons they survived. Team USA outrebounded Australia 47-40 and, critically, hauled in a ridiculous 21 offensive boards that helped offset a 39.1 percent shooting night.
But most of those boards came on tapouts and long-distance chasedowns by wings. With a lineup of Draymond Green, Carmelo Anthony, Durant, George and Jimmy Butler, the U.S. could nullify Australia's screen game by switching, forcing lumbering bigs off the floor and would lose little on the glass.
"
The looming threat of all-wing lineups might put France in a no-win situation. But Krzyzewski played one of Cousins or Jordan for more than 30 minutes against Australia instead of countering size with positionless lineups—and that total would have been higher if the pair hadn't labored through foul trouble.
That's enough upside for France to try mirroring Australia's approach.
Prediction
To beat the off-night version of Team USA, you'll need to clear 90 points. If you're going to beat the best version of the Americans, it'll take eclipsing the century mark.
France isn't even averaging 80 points per game.
France must turn Sunday's meeting into a slow crawl to give the United States a real problem—an untenable goal over the course of a 40-minute contest. Tony Parker and Nando de Colo should give Team USA's backcourt problems in the pick-and-roll, Batum can pester one of the prized wings, and the Diaw-Gobert combination might force Cousins and Jordan off the floor.
But it won't matter, unless the hangover continues.
That Australia game was supposed to have resonated with Team USA. We were supposed to believe the postgame comments. The slumbering giant who, frankly, could have sleptwalked through the Olympics and still emerged unscathed, gold medal in hand, was awoken.
But the still-drowsy beast beat Serbia's game-of-the-tournament 94-91.
That's hardly good news for the rest of the world, in a way, but it could be particularly troubling for above-average foes like France. It now gets Team USA's undivided attention.
Prediction: USA 103, France 76
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
