Ranking the Top Players Still Available at the 2016 MLB Trade Deadline
Any list that ranks the top available players at the trade deadline must first be qualified by its criteria.
Simply being among the most talented players available won’t put a guy on the list. There are a few exceptions, though, where a player's otherworldly talent is enough reason to rank among the 10 best available.
Still, in compiling the following list of players, not only were their 2016 seasons taken into account, but also the value and duration of their contracts. A player signed beyond 2016 has a higher value than a rental of equal talent preparing to hit free agency after this season.
If a player is one of the few available at his position, that also increases his value. Supply and demand applies to the trade market as much as our economy.
So who are the best available players as we approach the Aug. 1 trade deadline?
10. Jay Bruce
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Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jay Bruce offers probably the most coveted offensive tool during any July trading period: left-handed power.
Bruce has 24 homers to go along with 78 RBI, which is tied for the National League lead. He is hitting .271 and could offer any contending team an immediate impact bat in the middle of the lineup.
Moreover, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick is reporting that the Reds are actively shopping Bruce, who figures to net the team a blue-chip prospect as it continues to rebuild this season.
According to MLB Trade Rumors, Bruce has approximately $4.71 million left on his contract this season and a $13 million club option for 2017.
His minus-12.3 ultimate zone rating, according to FanGraphs, makes him a defensive liability. But a team in need of run production is certain to overlook that.
9. Chris Archer
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There's little reason Chris Archer should be ranked so high among potential trade pieces this season other than the fact that starting pitching is scarce at the moment.
The Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher is having the worst season of his five-year MLB career with a 4.42 ERA and 1.350 WHIP. What could prompt teams to target Archer in the coming days is that in the three seasons prior, he hasn’t finished with an ERA higher than 3.33.
Houston Mitchell of the Los Angeles Times linked the Los Angeles Dodgers to the Archer sweepstakes.
Teams considering Archer are likely doing so largely because the right-hander is playing on a team-friendly deal that runs through the 2019 season with club options in 2020 and 2021, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
Archer is making just over $2.9 million this year—a bargain if Archer is able to pitch like he did the past three seasons.
8. Josh Reddick
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Outfielder Josh Reddick has primarily hit third for the Oakland A’s this season. But he could easily hit higher in the order and may even be better suited to do so.
Reddick’s .296/.373/.442 slash line indicates he is someone capable of being a table setter just as much as a player who can hit in an RBI spot.
But what’s particularly encouraging about hitting him in the first or second spot in the order is he is hitting .320/.320/.480 after getting down 0-1 in the count. That’s an indication of a player who is able to battle through an at-bat and be the kind of grinder pitchers hate.
His defense is lacking, though.
Any team that trades for Reddick will have to reconcile the fact he has a minus-2.7 ultimate zone rating, according to FanGraphs. But it seems Reddick should be on the move.
CBS Sacramento noted the Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants and Baltimore Orioles could be vying for him as the deadline approaches.
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7. Carlos Beltran
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The New York Yankees’ Carlos Beltran seems like a must-add for a team in need of a designated hitter.
The switch-hitter, who has played as a designated hitter 31 games this season, is hitting .309/.350/.554. He has played in the outfield for the Yankees in 57 games this season, but that’s only because he’s more capable defensively than Alex Rodriguez. A team with a solid defensive outfield would slot him as a designated hitter. The Texas Rangers just lost Prince Fielder for the season and would be a good suitor.
New York’s general manager, Brian Cashman, said he will be "careful" in any negotiations for Beltran, per Brendan Kuty of NJ Advance Media. He currently leads the team with 21 homers and 62 RBI.
Any hesitation on the part of the Yankees could be that trading Beltran, who has been the team’s best offensive player this season, is an indication to the team’s fans that it has given up on the season.
6. Andrew Miller
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The Chicago Cubs recently made it a whole lot pricier for teams in need of left-handed relief pitching to land New York Yankees shutdown southpaw Andrew Miller.
By sending a haul of prospects that included highly touted shortstop Gleyber Torres and outfielder Billy McKinney to the Yankees for closer Aroldis Chapman, they set the market on left-handed bullpen help.
Chapman becomes a free agent after this season, and because the Cubs paid such a high price to rent a left-handed reliever, New York can and will ask even more for Miller, who is under contract through the 2018 season and is also capable of closing.
Relief pitching is valued higher this time of year than it is in the winter because it has much less of an impact over the course of the regular season than it does during the playoffs.
One inning of shutdown baseball in three or four games of a seven-game series means a lot.
Miller is certainly capable of delivering just that, possibly making it worth the price it would take to acquire him. In 45.1 innings pitched this season, Miller has a 1.39 ERA. As New York’s closer in 2015, he had 36 saves.
ESPN.com's Buster Olney asserted that the Cleveland Indians should still make a play for Miller despite the high asking price.
5. Jonathan Lucroy
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The market for the Milwaukee Brewers' Jonathan Lucroy, one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball, is hot. By taking his .301/.362/.486 slash line through Tuesday’s action to a contender, he could immediately impact a race.
Only the San Francisco Giants' Buster Posey and the Washington Nationals’ Wilson Ramos have produced better offensively at the catcher position.
Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reported that the New York Mets and Boston Red Sox were among the teams vying for Lucroy’s services.
The Mets, in particular, could benefit. As of Wednesday morning, they ranked 28th in runs scored. Boston ranks first among MLB teams in the category and would only be adding to its already potent offense.
With Lucroy the only team-altering catcher on the market, the Brewers will almost assuredly use the widespread interest to create a bidding war. Such a trade could not only change the dynamic of a division race, but also greatly impact the future of Milwaukee’s franchise.
4. Carlos Gonzalez
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In a trade year in which there’s a heavy supply of outfielders, the Colorado Rockies’ Carlos Gonzalez sticks out among them not only because of his .317/.371/.547 slash line through Tuesday's action, but also because he bats lefty.
Anything left-handed—pitching or hitting—seems to be a valued commodity this time of year.
When examining some of the top-of-the-rotation pitchers on contending NL teams this year, many of them, unsurprisingly, are right-handed. The Chicago Cubs’ Jake Arrieta and John Lackey, the Washington Nationals’ Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg and the San Francisco Giants’ Johnny Cueto are all right-handed.
Given Gonzalez’s familiarity with the league, he could be a more attractive addition for a contending NL team.
The Denver Post’s Nick Groke noted that any big trade Colorado makes would almost assuredly involve Gonzalez, who is the team’s highest-paid player and is in the final two years of a seven-year deal.
So any team trading for him wouldn’t be getting a rental, and that increases his value.
As far as his defense is concerned, Gonzalez ranks 15th among all outfielders, with a 4.6 ultimate zone rating, according to FanGraphs. In targeting possible trades for everyday players, the general emphasis is on a guy’s offensive abilities.
But Gonzalez’s advanced glove certainly makes him a higher priority than other outfielders contending teams may be considering.
3. Ryan Braun
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There’s no doubt that quite a few teams are interested in Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun. At the conclusion of Tuesday's action, Braun was hitting .324/.386/.520 and has career averages of .305/.368/.543.
Brewers general manager David Stearns offered this in an interview with Bleacher Report in late June regarding calls he was receiving from other teams interested in Braun and catcher Jonathan Lucroy:
"When you’re in a position that we’re in where we have some players, some veteran-type players, who have performed very well throughout the first half of the year—we’re a team that’s under .500 right now in a really good division—whenever those types of situations occur, you get calls about those players from teams that are higher up in the standings. Certainly we’re no different and we’re getting those calls.
They understand from my perspective it’s my responsibility and obligation to see what is out there for any player on our roster and so when another general manager calls and expresses interest, it would be foolish for me not explore what we could potentially get back.
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Given that Braun is capable of playing both corner outfield positions, he can be easily worked into lineups on most contending teams. Any contending team in need of a bat should have Braun high on its list of trade targets, given his long history of offensive success.
He is under contract through the 2020 season with an option for 2021, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.
2. Chris Sale
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Much of the debate about whether the Chicago White Sox should trade left-handed ace Chris Sale parallels that of the L.A. Angels and Mike Trout.
The matter was complicated by an incident Saturday in which Sale threw a tantrum because the team was scheduled to wear throwback jerseys the day he pitched. It resulted in him being scratched from that start and suspended for five days, per a release from the team.
Nonetheless, Sale is a transcendent talent. He started for the American League in the All-Star Game and boasts a 3.18 ERA and 1.008 WHIP this season. Add in the fact he’s playing on an extremely team-friendly deal, with options for 2018 and 2019, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and Sale could command a haul of prospects that could position the White Sox well for the future.
MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan reported that the Texas Rangers are interested in Sale. Rich in minor league prospects, the Rangers are one of the few teams in need of starting pitching that could pay the high price required to pull off a Sale trade.
Maybe Sale is one of those untouchable players. But it only takes one great offer to change that. The Rangers could open talks by including Jurickson Profar and Joey Gallo in a deal. Profar is with the Rangers, while the power-hitting Gallo ranks 11th on Baseball America’s list of Midseason Top 100 Prospects.
1. Mike Trout
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There’s debate over whether outfielder Mike Trout even belongs on a list of available players. Would the Los Angeles Angels really consider trading baseball’s best player?
Then again, Trout represents a giant reset button for an Angels organization whose minor league system is drier than the Sahara. The haul of prospects Trout would bring in would immediately vault the team to, at least, the upper third in prospect rankings. With L.A. currently in last place in the American League West, its performance has fueled speculation as to whether the team would trade Trout.
Sports Illustrated's Ben Reiter wrote a piece on why the Angels should trade Trout.
Assuming there’s even a tinge of truth to it and Trout belongs on this list, there’s absolutely no doubt he belongs atop it.
This year, Trout is hitting .314/.425/.555 and leads all of baseball with a 6.0 WAR, according to FanGraphs. He isn’t set to become a free agent until the 2021 season.
So any trade made at the deadline would impact a team not only in this year’s race but also for many seasons to come. Then again, that could be the reason the Angels hang on to him. He is under contract long enough to impact the team even after a rebuild.
As suitors go, the Washington Nationals are in a division race and have the kind of prospects necessary for a Trout trade. Such a trade would require Washington to send No. 4 pitcher Lucas Giolito, No. 5 shortstop Trea Turner, No. 13 outfielder Victor Robles and No. 48 pitcher Reynaldo Lopez, whose rankings are courtesy of Baseball America’s Midseason Top 100 Prospects.
Even that may not be enough. But imagine how good it would look to have Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper and Trout standing next to each other.
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