Full Final 2016 MLB Trade Deadline Predictions
The clock ticking down to Major League Baseball's August 1 trade deadline doesn't have much time left on it. Meanwhile, plenty of teams still have holes to fill.
That makes it easy to predict that the next few days are going to be interesting. But for the sake of being thorough, let's go more in depth.
Ahead is one last list of predictions for the MLB trade deadline. It's not an especially long one, but it will cover the big bases: which players will and won't move and which teams will and won't be active.
We'll begin with the fates of two coveted relief pitchers. Step into the box when you're ready.
Andrew Miller and Wade Davis Stay Put
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With the New York Yankees shipping Aroldis Chapman to the Chicago Cubs, the summer trade market has already seen one shutdown reliever change teams. Now all eyes are on Andrew Miller and Wade Davis.
Don't count on them going anywhere.
There's interest in Miller, the Yankees left-hander, and Davis, the Kansas City Royals right-hander. As two of MLB's five best relievers since 2014, they're obvious cures for ailing bullpens.
But my goodness, their price tags. Their. Price. Tags.
The Yankees set the market when they traded Chapman, a free-agent-to-be. In exchange for two months of him, they received Gleyber Torres (Baseball America's No. 27 prospect) and three more solid talents.
Miller and Davis are basically Chapman clones with more controllability. Miller's contract runs through 2018, and Davis has a $10 million team option for 2017. Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reported that something like the Chapman package "wouldn't get it done" for Davis. That may be doubly true for Miller.
Only the Cleveland Indians, Washington Nationals and San Francisco Giants need a shutdown reliever enough to consider a king's ransom for Miller or Davis. But the Giants probably don't have the prospects, while the Indians and Nationals are likely to be too protective of their top guys.
Those teams will kick over other rocks, while Miller and Davis stay put. And for the Yankees, that will mean...
Miller Stays, and the Yankees Go For It
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With Baseball Prospectus listing the chances of the Yankees winning their 28th World Series title at just 0.5 percent, the Chapman trade should be just the first step of a larger fire sale in the Bronx.
But don't count on that happening.
Whereas selling was previously (and still should be) the obvious choice for the Yankees, a hot streak has complicated things. They're not a great team, but the Yankees code states a shot at October must not be wasted.
"Nobody wants to break up," CC Sabathia told reporters Tuesday. "We have good chemistry in here. We have battled all year. You kind of want to plug away with the guys you have been battling with."
The good ball the Yankees have been playing isn't the only thing that could bar them from selling.
They've moved one valuable part, but they'll be in a tough spot if the market doesn't meet their asking price for Miller. Carlos Beltran is their best trade chip after him, but his shoddy defense and $15 million salary make him a lesser option in a market flooded with outfielders. After him, the trade chips are down to guys who lack great value: Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi.
This doesn't mean the Yankees will say, "Screw it!" and buy, buy, buy. Rather, it's just hard to see ownership giving the go-ahead to sell just for the sake of blowing the whole thing up.
But elsewhere in the AL East...
Red Sox Go Off the Board for a Shutdown Reliever
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Even after trading for Drew Pomeranz and Brad Ziegler, Boston Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski reportedly still has "something big" in mind, according to Stark.
Let's bet that his next move will instead turn out to be "something unexpected."
Between Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers, the Red Sox have the prospect star power to aim big. But Dombrowski told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that he's more open-minded than he is desperate.
That's actually believable. The Red Sox could splurge for another starter, but a rotation of David Price, Pomeranz, Steven Wright, Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez could find a groove in the stretch run. And with Craig Kimbrel nearing his return from a knee injury, Boston's bullpen already has a relief ace.
But the Red Sox do still need a reliable setup man for Kimbrel. They can either pay an absurd price for one of the top guys on the market or go off the board for a value play.
Door No. 2 fits with what Boston did with Pomeranz and Ziegler, and there are plenty of options behind it. For example, how about Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Tyler Thornburg? He's put up a 2.21 ERA with more than 12 strikeouts per nine innings in 2016 and is under team control through 2019.
Thornburg could solve the Red Sox's last outstanding need, and likely without costing them one of their blue chips. And I'll tell you who they won't be using those on...
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Chris Sale Also Stays Put
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Of all the great players to pop up in trade rumors, none carries the jaw-dropping intrigue of Chris Sale. His availability seems too good to be true.
That's because it is.
The Chicago White Sox do seem interested in selling, but various reports have made it clear they're only moving Sale if a suitor hits them with a Don Corleone special. Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reported that is still the case, saying the White Sox must be "absolutely blown away" by an offer.
According to Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball, an appropriate offer would have to contain "five top prospects." In that light, only the top three teams in Heyman's list of suitors make sense: the Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers and Texas Rangers.
Neither the Red Sox nor the Rangers need a legit No. 1 starter as much as the Dodgers, who have no idea when Clayton Kershaw will be healthy. Trading for Sale, however, could cost the Dodgers all of their best pitching prospects—Julio Urias, Jose De Leon and Grant Holmes—plus a little extra.
Even if it meant getting a guy like Sale, that sounds like too much for an organization that has been protective of its farm system. The Dodgers could try to talk the White Sox down, but even Sale's recent blowup isn't going to make them desperate to move an ace they control through 2019.
But enough about who's not moving. Let's get to who will move...
Jonathan Lucroy Is the Best Player Moved, and He Goes to Cleveland
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With Chapman off the board, Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy looms largest on MLB Trade Rumors' list of the top 50 summer trade candidates.
Cleveland Indians, that's your cue.
Zack Meisel of Cleveland.com is right about Lucroy and the Indians being perfect for each other. With a league-worst .505 OPS and, per FanGraphs, a minus-1.1 WAR coming from behind the plate, the Indians are the square hole. With an .848 OPS and 2.8 WAR, Lucroy is the square peg.
The Indians have noticed as much. Reports have been linking them to Lucroy for a while now; ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick indicated that they see a trade with the Brewers as a chance to add Lucroy and a much-needed left-handed reliever in Will "The Other One" Smith.
Pulling off a deal would cost the Tribe one of their top prospects, a group that includes outfielders Clint Frazier and Bradley Zimmer. But at worst, the reward would be a cakewalk to an AL Central title. At best, adding Lucroy to a team with a stacked rotation and a solid offense could lead to the World Series.
In other words, he's totally worth it. And since the Indians' future outfield already consists of rising star Tyler Naquin and a (hopefully) healthy Michael Brantley, they can stand to spare Frazier or Zimmer.
As for the best starting pitcher to be moved...
Chris Archer Is the Best Starter Moved, and He Goes to the Dodgers
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If the White Sox continue to make Sale virtually unattainable, contenders will turn to the Tampa Bay Rays and their treasure trove of young starting pitchers.
Which brings us to Chris Archer and the Dodgers.
Archer has a cheap contract with options through 2021, so there's no pressure on the Rays to move him. But there's a market for their starters, and the Dodgers' rumored interest in Archer seems legit. The executive who told Stark there's a 70 percent chance that the right-hander winds up in Los Angeles is likely exaggerating, but it represents a realistic fit.
Because Archer still has an excellent arm (see his 10.7 K/9) and is under control for the long haul, his price tag can't go too low. But because his ERA has risen to 4.42 from 3.23 in 2015, it can't go too high. This makes him a good Plan B for Sale chasers: He's a talented and controllable pitcher whose employer isn't desperate to deal but could be willing to take what it can get.
If anyone is going to roll the dice, it's Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. He's already traded for Archer once, acquiring him in the Matt Garza deal when he was running the Rays. Now there's a chance he can get him again without sacrificing Urias, the club's golden prospect.
That would take care of one big item on the Dodgers' shopping list. As for the other one...
Josh Reddick Is the Best Outfielder Moved, and He Also Goes to L.A.
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Need an outfielder? From Jay Bruce to Ryan Braun to Carlos Gonzalez to Josh Reddick to Beltran, this summer's market has plenty.
So it will be a hoot when only Reddick gets traded.
We've discussed how Beltran's market is limited by his glove and contract. The same holds true with Bruce. Braun and Gonzalez are better talents but have bigger contracts.
None of these concerns apply to Reddick. The right fielder is a free-agent-to-be who's making less than $7 million. For that, he's giving the Oakland A's an .818 OPS and solid defense. According to Jon Morosi of MLB.com, these talents interest at least three teams: the Cubs, Dodgers and Indians.
We can count out Cleveland if it does the right thing by going for Lucroy. The Cubs could use Reddick but don't need him with Jason Heyward in right and Dexter Fowler in center.
The Dodgers, on the other hand, must do better than Yasiel Puig (.693 OPS) in right field. Bringing in Reddick would do the trick, and the Dodgers have just the guy to get him. General manager Farhan Zaidi used to work under Billy Beane in the A's front office, so he'll know what will please them.
Reddick's price shouldn't be too high. The Dodgers could probably make pitcher Frankie Montas the centerpiece and get their man. Once they do, they might not even need Kershaw to overtake the struggling Giants in the NL West race.
This leaves just one category left to cover...
David Robertson Is the Best Reliever Moved, and He Goes to Washington
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Nobody is going to be desperate enough to pay for Miller or Davis, but at least one big-name closer should change teams in the next couple of days.
One idea seems to be picking up steam: David Robertson to the Nationals.
Morosi reported Wednesday that the Nationals' efforts to find a reliever "intensified" following back-to-back flops by veteran closer Jonathan Papelbon. According to Stark, Miller, Davis and Robertson are on their radar.
Unlike Sale, the White Sox actually want to deal Robertson. Buster Olney of ESPN.com reported that the White Sox are "pushing to move" the right-hander, who's only given them a 3.78 ERA through almost half of his four-year, $46 million deal.
Robertson's mediocre production and big contract ought to make for a small asking price in terms of prospects. Taking him on would probably require the Nats to absorb all of the $25 million he's owed after 2016, but Papelbon's upcoming free agency would help soften the blow.
And despite his struggles, Robertson is an upgrade over Papelbon. With a 10.9 K/9 to Pap's 8.4 K/9, Robertson is better at missing bats. And chances are that moving to the National League and into Nationals Park would help curb his home run problem (1.3 HR/9).
If the Nats can get Robertson in a salary-dump deal that sees only a modest prospect (i.e. A.J. Cole) go the other way, they should do it.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through Wednesday, July 27.
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