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NHL Free Agents 2016: The All-Risk Team

Carol SchramJun 27, 2016

Now that the 2016 draft is in the books, NHL teams get their next chance to improve their rosters for the upcoming season when the free-agency window opens on July 1.

Traditionally, unrestricted free agents have been able to secure their biggest paydays and greatest long-term job security when they hit the open market, although salary-cap constraints are tempering the madness more and more each year.

General Fanager has a handy list of all the UFAs who could come on the market on Friday, which is sortable by position, age and previous cap hit.

Risk tends to be especially high with older players, especially ones who are looking for long-term deals. But other market conditions are also in play which could lead to today's prize signing turning into tomorrow's team albatross.

Here's the NHL's All-Risk Team of unrestricted free agents for 2016. Which other UFAs would you be wary about your team signing?

Left Wing: Milan Lucic

1 of 6

Age: 28

Previous Contract: 3 years, $6 million cap hit

2015-16 Stats: Regular Season 81 GP, 20-35-55; Playoffs 5 GP, 0-3-3

Why He's Risky: The Los Angeles Kings took a big chance that Milan Lucic's grit would get their team back on the playoff track when they acquired the big power forward during the summer of 2015 with just one year on his contract before he became an unrestricted free agent.

General manager Dean Lombardi paid a high price to acquire Lucic, giving up goaltender Martin Jones, defenseman Colin Miller and a first-round draft pick to the Boston Bruins. The match looked good during a regular season where Lucic cracked the 20-goal plateau for the fourth time in his career. But he failed to light the lamp during the Kings' abbreviated playoff run, when they were knocked out of Stanley Cup contention by the San Jose Sharks.

At this stage of his career, Lucic will be looking to hit a home run with his new deal, in terms of both money and contract length. But his hard-hitting playing style has already put plenty of wear and tear on his body—he's not the type of player who continues to thrive into his 30s.

Lucic could look good for his new team for two or three seasons, but he'll be a declining asset long before his contract expires. Buyer beware.

Center: Eric Staal

2 of 6

Age: 31

Previous Contract: 7 years, $8.25 million cap hit

2015-16 Stats: Regular Season 83 GP (with Carolina and the New York Rangers), 13-26-39; Playoffs 5 GP, 0-0-0

Why He's Risky: Will the marketplace treat Eric Staal as a player who has been on a steady decline for the last three seasons and was a trade-deadline disaster for the New York Rangers? Or, will he get paid like an esteemed member of the Triple Gold Club—a longtime team captain with the Carolina Hurricanes who won a Stanley Cup in 2006, a World Championship gold medal in 2007 and Olympic gold in 2010?

Staal's pedigree is excellent. Even recently, he broke the 20-goal mark in both of his last two full seasons with Carolina. And there are plenty of reasons for the Rangers' playoff flame-out that go well beyond Staal's lack of postseason production.

At 31, he should be in a position where he can still thrive and would probably love a chance to erase the memories of last spring. The question now—will the general manager who acquires Staal's services be able to do so without overspending on cap hit or contract length?

Right Wing: Troy Brouwer

3 of 6

Age: 30

Previous Contract: 3 years, $3.67 million cap hit

2015-16 Stats: Regular Season 82 GP, 18-21-39; Playoffs 20 GP, 8-5-13

Why He's Risky: When Troy Brouwer scored the game-winning goal that knocked the defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks out of the playoffs and launched the St. Louis Blues into the second round, he instantly earned a spot in NHL lore among the postseason's most important game-changers.

Brouwer went on to score seven more times before the Blues were eliminated in the Western Conference Final, setting himself up as a meat-and-potatoes player who's known to perform best when he's the sandpaper guy skating beside more highly-skilled linemates.

Turning 31 in August and approaching unrestricted free agency, Brouwer timed his big playoff performance perfectly. He's in a good position to cash in with a big-money, long-term deal. But how much did the Blues' deep forward group and Brouwer's linemates Paul Stastny and Robby Fabbri contribute to his postseason success?

According to Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, St. Louis general manager Doug Armstrong hasn't ruled out re-signing Brouwer or Blues captain David Backes, who's also about to become a UFA. Of the two, Brouwer is more likely to be offered a juicy contract based on his off-the-charts playoff performance. It'll be tough for him to live up to those terms, whether the contract comes in St. Louis or elsewhere.

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Defense: Kyle Quincey

4 of 6

Age: 30

Previous Contract: 2 years, $4.25 million cap hit

2015-16 Stats: Regular Season 47 GP, 4-7-11; Playoffs 4 GP, 0-1-1

Why He's Risky: Plenty of teams are looking for help on their blue lines this offseason, and not many high-end defensemen are available through free agency. After Alex Goligoski and Keith Yandle were both snapped up by the teams that traded for their rights in order to get a head start on contract negotiations, Quincey is one of this year's higher-quality remaining UFA options who isn't already in the twilight of his career.

Quincey's not a big point producer—he peaked with 38 points with the Los Angeles Kings back in 2008-09 and has never scored more than six goals in a season. But he has a big body at 6'2" and 216 pounds and has amassed a decent resume of NHL experience, with 495 games played over a total of 12 seasons.

However, Quincey missed 35 games during the 2015-16 season between late October and mid-January, first due to a concussion, then ankle surgery. He has played a full 82-game schedule just once in his career, so injuries could become an issue going forward, as he gets older.

A seller's market for defensemen means that Quincey's potentially in position to incite a bidding war on July 1. There isn't much on his resume to indicate that he'd be a true top-pairing defenseman for multiple seasons when he lands in his new home.

Defense: Justin Schultz

5 of 6

Age: 25

Previous Contract: 1 year, $3.9 million cap hit

2015-16 Stats: Regular Season 63 GP (with Edmonton and Pittsburgh), 4-14-18; Playoffs 15 GP, 0-3-3

Why He's Risky: A team that's looking for a high-risk, high-reward option on the blue line could do worse than to circle around Justin Schultz.

Still just 25 years old, Schultz hasn't realized the potential that incited a bidding war when he elected not to sign with the Anaheim Ducks, who had drafted him, when he wrapped up his third year of college. He has shown promise as a power-play quarterback but the defensive side of his game remains questionable.

Schultz now has a Stanley Cup ring thanks to a trade-deadline deal that sent him to the Pittsburgh Penguins. But the Penguins declined to give him a qualifying offer at the $3.9 million salary that slots him in well above what he has delivered so far, so he's set to become an unrestricted free agent once again.

Pittsburgh did a good job of sheltering Schultz during the playoffs, making his defensive liabilities less glaring. At a lower price point, he could be an asset on a team that's looking for an offensive defenseman, but that team will also have to be prepared to live with Schultz's shortcomings.

Goal: James Reimer

6 of 6

Age: 28

Previous Contract: 2 years, $2.3 million cap hit

2015-16 Stats: Regular Season 40 GP (with Toronto and San Jose), 17-14-7, .922 SV%, 2.31 GAA; Playoffs 1 GP

Why He's Risky: James Reimer has shown flashes of greatness during his six-year NHL career. Does he have what it takes to challenge for a No. 1 spot in a new market? Is a team going to take that chance on July 1?

Reimer was brought in by the San Jose Sharks as goaltending insurance at the trade deadline but wasn't needed. He was 6-2-0 in the regular season with the Sharks, with a dazzling 1.62 goals-against average and .938 save percentage, but Reimer played just 30 minutes during the Sharks' run to the Stanley Cup final as Martin Jones proved himself to be completely capable of handling No. 1 responsibilities.

The Calgary Flames took care of their need for a No. 1 netminder over draft weekend by trading for Brian Elliott, and the Toronto Maple Leafs have acquired Frederik Andersen, so there's no clear-cut top job open at the moment. 

Reimer's the best goaltender currently available on the open market if one or more teams decides it does want to change up its netminding rotation heading into next season. The risk comes because Reimer still hasn't proven that he has what it takes to be top dog, night in and night out.

All stats courtesy of NHL.com.

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