Does Jacoby Brissett Have a Chance to Be New England Patriots Week 1 Starter?

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — If Tom Brady is suspended for the first four games of the 2016 season, Jimmy Garoppolo is the front-runner to be the New England Patriots' replacement at quarterback. 

At least, for now.

The Patriots' brain trust invested a second-round pick in Garoppolo just north of two years ago, so clearly, they view him as having potential. The Patriots also drafted N.C. State quarterback Jacoby Brissett in the third round of April's draft, apparently to be the third man on the depth chart. 

As we know in New England, though, the situation is not always exactly how it appears.

All things being equal, Garoppolo should be the starter. He has more experience in the Patriots' complicated offense. He is two years away from becoming a free agent, which means the Patriots need to begin deciding on his long-term future with the team. 

That being said, there's a chance Brissett could leapfrog Garoppolo on the depth chart. It's a long shot, but it's possible—especially if Brissett remains on an upward trajectory, like he did during minicamp in early June, as noted by the Providence Journal's Mark Daniels:

Make no mistake; the selection of Brissett does not signal anything but the obvious: that nothing is guaranteed for anyone in New England. 

"There's always an element of team planning, especially at that position," Patriots head coach Bill Belichick said after the draft. "If you can, you try to look ahead a little bit. If you can't then take it as it comes. Things change but there's an element of planning at all positions on your team, certainly that one."

The pick does not signal a lack of faith in Garoppolo; it does not even signal that the Patriots view Brissett as the quarterback of the future. The only thing we know for sure is that the pick provides insurance.

Brissett isn't going to pull off the upset of becoming the next starting quarterback simply by having a stronger arm, quicker feet or more of any particular tangible than Garoppolo. If there is a possibility of Brissett surpassing Garoppolo on the depth chart, it rests solely on Brissett's ability to demonstrate a deeper understanding of the playbook than what Garoppolo has demonstrated so far. 

The odds of Brissett accomplishing that feat in the 11 weeks between now and the regular season? Quite slim. And as tight end Rob Gronkowski shared with CSNNE's Michael Giardi, the team is confident in Garoppolo's progress:

"He has a chance to be a starter," one scout said, per Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "I think he's better than Teddy Bridgewater. He's bigger, got a better arm and better pocket presence, and is a great kid. People will want to work with him. He's got this huge lower body. Guys just have a hard time bringing him down. He's not a speed guy but he's not a slug."

Give Brissett some time to polish his skills, and he could be a starting-caliber quarterback. Throw him into the mix now, and run the risk of rushing his development before he is ready. 

Of course, it doesn't all depend on Brissett's development. As ESPN analyst and former Patriots linebacker Tedy Bruschi notes, the decision might come down to an injury to Garoppolo, or an injury in a worst-case scenario.

"If Garoppolo struggles or Garoppolo gets hurt because the offensive line isn't on the same page, you may have Jacoby Brissett come in to play some reps," Bruschi said on an ESPN broadcast on June 8, "because coach Belichick is not shy about putting in who he feels is doing best and gives him the best chance to win."

Those events would likely take place after Week 1, though. While it's entirely possible Garoppolo could get injured in the preseason, he's not likely to lose the job due to ineffective preseason performance. Unless the Patriots view Brissett as an immediately better alternative to Brady than Garoppolo, it's highly unlikely we'll see the rookie as the starter against the Arizona Cardinals on September 11.