Realistic 2016 Free-Agency Targets for the Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls, fresh off a disappointing season, will be looking to make the necessary changes to get back into the playoffs. Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah, their starting and backup centers from last season, are both free agents as of July 1.
According to his brother (h/t John Martin of 929ESPN), Memphis Grizzlies center Mark, it looks like Gasol is eyeing the San Antonio Spurs. And according to Mitch Lawrence of the Sporting News, Noah is considering the Minnesota Timberwolves, where he can reunite with former coach Tom Thibodeau.
E’Twaun Moore, the versatile two-way wing, is also on the market, though he seems more inclined to return, as he indicated in his interview with Al Hamnik of The Times of Northwest Indiana.
“They definitely know I enjoyed being at home and, of course, I want to come back,” Moore said. “It’s not up to me. It’s up to them in negotiations. Last season definitely helped a lot. You hate any situation where somebody gets hurt but you have to step up and I did."
Finally, backup point guard Aaron Brooks is also an unrestricted free agent.
Current Situation
To know who the Bulls can sign, we need to know what kind of room they have. Here's the information from Spotrac.com:
| Player | Position | Salary |
| Derrick Rose | PG | $21,323,252 |
| Jimmy Butler | SG | $17,552,209 |
| Taj Gibson | PF | $8,950,000 |
| Nikola Mirotic | PF | $5,782,450 |
| Mike Dunleavy | SG | $4,837,500 |
| Doug McDermott | SF | $2,483,040 |
| Tony Snell | SF | $2,368,327 |
| Bobby Portis | PF | $1,453,680 |
| Justin Holiday | SG | $1,015,696 |
| Cameron Bairstow | PF | $980,431 |
| Cristiano Felicio | PF | $874,636 |
| Total | $67,621,221 |
That does not include cap holds, of which only two are relevant: $1,743,500 for the No. 14 pick, according to Real GM, and Moore’s $980,431. That puts the Bulls at $21,654,848 below the $92 million cap.
The latter of those two is important because the Bulls have Moore’s Early Bird rights. According to Nate Duncan in his Dunc'd On podcast, the most the team can offer using Moore's Early Bird rights is four years at $24 million.
However, if they can do that, the Bulls wouldn't need to make the deal official until after they filled up their cap space since his hold is so low. In doing so, they effectively add about $6 million to their cap space. They also have their $2.9 million room exception.
During the latter parts of the season, youngsters Justin Holiday (43.3 percent from deep as a Bull) and center Cristiano Felicio (18.4 player efficiency rating after the All-Star break) showed some mettle. Rookie power forward Bobby Portis had his moments and appears to have the kind of work ethic that bodes well for offseason improvement.
And Doug McDermott, defensive woes notwithstanding, had a few spectacular performances, including a 30-point game against the Toronto Raptors on Feb. 19.
The key will be to supplement the young talent and build for the future, rather than try to climb the mountain in one year. In past seasons, $22 million would seem like a lot of money, but it’s less meaningful since almost everyone is in the green this summer.
The priorities will be a starting center, a backup point guard and a wing for depth—particularly if Chicago loses Moore to free agency.
Centers
The biggest chunk of money should go to the starting center, somewhere in the neighborhood of $12-15 million. The Bulls are in desperate need of an athletic, defensive presence in the middle, a fact which became painfully obvious after Noah went down last season.
Bismack Biyombo had a sensational playoff run, highlighted by his 26-rebound performance against the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. According to Basketball-Reference.com, he averaged 9.0 points and 13.0 rebounds per 36 minutes last season with the Raptors, shooting 54.2 percent from the field.
His athleticism, lateral quickness and defense all fit well with head coach Fred Hoiberg’s style of play. The Bulls were lost last season without a center who could get up and down the court or who could cover the high pick-and-roll. Biyombo is more than capable.
He’d be an excellent fit alongside Nikola Mirotic, whose presence outside of the three-point line will create space and make it easy for a rim-runner like Biyombo to work off the misses for easy putbacks. Defensively, Biyombo’s presence would cover for Mirotic’s miscues.
On the downside, Biyombo can’t shoot worth a lick. He has made just 50 shots from six feet or more in his career. But that would be a secondary concern in his role.
The larger negative could be multiple offers driving up his price. If the Bulls can land him to start at $15 million or less, they should jump on it.
Ian Mahinmi is a much more below-the-radar version of Biyombo. He’s arguably a better player right now, but he’s also 29, which means he’s about as good as he’s ever going to be. But he’s a young 29 with just 7,347 career minutes
Still, last season his PER jumped from 10.8 to 16.6. Based on original research, that 5.8-point spike is the highest of any player who logged 1,000 minutes in 2014-15 and 2015-16. However, the fact he received only three third-place votes for Most Improved Player shows how little his progress was acknowledged. That could mean a more economical contract for the Bulls.
Additionally, his Defensive Real Plus-Minus was fifth in the league and third among players who logged at least 25 minutes per game, according to ESPN.com. Like Biyombo, Mahinmi’s athleticism, quickness and ability to play “Hoiball” on defense are the selling points. But like Biyombo, the lack of range is a problem (just 29-of-94 on jumpers last season).
Point Guards
Not only is Derrick Rose a former MVP who may or may not be physically up to playing on a given night, but he’s also in the last year of his contract. As a result, the Bulls not only need to use their pick on a point guard, they must sign a backup. Otherwise, they could see their season hinge on a lone rookie in the blink of an eye.
Matthew Dellavedova will be perfect for those who miss Kirk Hinrich. He’s a scrappy (sometimes dirty) player who will never be short on effort. As the Bulls lacked fire last season, that kind of feistiness would be a welcome presence.
Delly is also a respectable three-point shooter, who hit a career-high 41.0 percent last season on 4.6 attempts per 36 minutes. He’s not much of a penetrator (just 27 field goals at the rim). And he’s not going to get much better than he is now. But he’d be worth an offer just above the mid-level exception.
Dellavedova is a restricted free agent, but the Cavaliers are already at $107 million next year, and that’s not factoring J.R. Smith, who has a player option and is likely to want more. LeBron James will probably want a max, right? Just reworking those two deals is likely to put the Cavs well over the expected $111 million luxury tax.
The math gets complicated from there, but Delly could end up costing three or four dollars in tax for every buck in salary, and that might be too much for Cavs owner Dan Gilbert to pour out for a backup point guard.
From Linsanity in New York to a failed experiment with the Houston Rockets to a disaster with the Los Angeles Lakers to resurgence last year with the Charlotte Hornets, Jeremy Lin has been up and down in his career.
Finally free of the limelight, he seemed to get an identity apart from the expectations of the masses and turned into a legitimate combo guard. He can defend competently, run an offense (16.1 points and 4.1 assists per 36 minutes) or score off the ball (50.6 effective field-goal percentage on catch-and-shoots).
He’s not going to be an All-Star, but he is capable of running a second team or even starting in spot duty. He’s makes good decisions, fights over screens, gets steals and tends to play hard on defense. He might not have the lateral quickness or prowess of an elite defender, but he’s strong for a point guard and an underrated stopper.
For $7-8 million, you couldn’t do much better and could probably do a whole lot worse.
Wings
Provided the scenario with Moore doesn’t work out, the Bulls will need to use the room exception on a swingman.
Who will be around at that price is just too hard to gauge with the madcappery that will be this summer’s free agency, but some guys to keep an eye on include Matt Barnes, Joe Johnson, Eric Gordon, Michael Beasley, Gerald Green and Gerald Henderson.
There are some fundamental flaws with all of those guys, be it injury, age, lack of defense or poor offense, but they wouldn’t be available for the room exception if they were perfect. The goal would be just to get someone whose strength plugs a hole (depending on who else Chicago signs), then worry about the rest later.
The Bulls aren’t going to be a contender this year. That is something their fans are going to have to make peace with. But by adding some pieces for the future and developing their younger players, they could position themselves to be back there again in 2017-18.
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