Nyquist's Victory Shows It's Easier Than Ever to Pick the Kentucky Derby Winner

Looking to find the Kentucky Derby winner? Apparently there is no need to study past performances, watch replays, get up early to watch the morning workouts or listen to the experts. Just go with the flow, and pick the betting favorite.

Apparently the general public is the expert when it comes to the Run for the Roses.

In what many thought was one of the most wide-open editions of the Kentucky Derby in recent memory, it was the favorite, Nyquist, bet down from his 3-1 morning line that drew clear in the stretch to win the first jewel of the Triple Crown, a $2 investment returning $6.60.

"I think people were just looking for value, and none of these three-year-olds had gone a mile-and-a-quarter, so why bet a 2-1 shot when you can bet 10-, 15-, 20-to-1 on a horse that’s never done it. We were very confident in him,” said winning trainer Doug O'Neill per the Courier-Journal's Jon Hale.

It was the fourth consecutive year the public got it right. Orb was a lukewarm favorite in 2013, returning his backers $12.80. California Chrome got the job done in 2014, the popular winner paying $7.00.

American Pharoah was sent off as the favorite last year and did not disappoint, paying $7.80. It was the first time since 1975 that three consecutive betting favorites won the Run for the Roses.

Now it is four in a row. Are racing fans getting smarter with their wagering bankroll, is it just a coincidence or something else?

Since Churchill Downs went to a points system instead of graded stakes earnings in Kentucky Derby prep races to determine the starting field of 20, sprint races no longer count.

Having two or three sprinters setting sharp, early fractions can cause chaos in the race flow and can help produce upsets. With a field full of route-type horses, the early pace of the race tends to be more moderate.

In recent years, the races seem to run more to form, as the races tend to be run similar to the way the Derby preps races are contested, making it easier to predict the outcome.

However, it sure seems that racing fans and horseplayers are more informed, as there is an abundance of racing information at the click of a mouse readily available for astute horse racing fans.

Before the World Wide Web came into existence, horse players could do little more than pick up a copy of Daily Racing Form at their local newsstand, and the only other tool most used was a No. 2 pencil.

Today we have TVG, a television network devoted to horse racing and a wide variety of web sites that track Kentucky Derby hopefuls from their maiden races as juveniles right up until the first Saturday of May.

Odds Shark posts early betting odds months in advance of the big day, and with the Road to the Kentucky Derby points races, fans and horse players can watch each prep race and choose their Derby contenders months in advance.

Nyquist stood out early in his career, winning all five of his starts as a two-year-old, including capping off his campaign by winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) at Keeneland, making him the early betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby.

The colt only made two starts this year, but every workout, gallop and race could be scrutinized readily online. He was no secret.

When the field for the Kentucky Derby was finalized, past performances are made available just hours later, and there is no lurking around a newsstand waiting for the Form anymore.

Horse players can start their studying days in advance, and have many computer programs, speed figures and choices for past performances. There is almost an information overload by the time they load the lightly raced runners into the starting gate at Churchill Downs.

With such a large field of relatively lightly raced three-year-olds, mostly untested at 1 ¼ miles, you would think the toteboard would light up just about every year.

From 1980 to 1999 the betting favorites were blanked, none hitting the winner’s circle. Since then, the betting favorite has won eight times in 17 runnings.

Remember next spring on the first Saturday of May not to overthink one of the most challenging handicapping puzzles.

When it comes to the finding the Kentucky Derby winner, the betting public seems to have the hang of it.

Betting odds via KentuckyDerby.com

Statistics via Churchill Downs and Equibase

Follow Michael Dempsey on Twitter @turfnsport