Kentucky Derby 2016 Post Positions: Triple Crown Odds and Predictions for Field

The 2016 Triple Crown season gets underway Saturday afternoon with the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby. Drama should be the name of the game over the next five weeks given the depth in this year's three-year-old class.

Nyquist heads into the Derby as the rightful favorite after winning his first seven starts. He's facing no shortage of competition, however, led by Exaggerator, Mohaymen, Gun Runner and Creator in the talent-laden 20-horse field.

Let's check out the complete group of horses for Saturday's marquee race, which is scheduled for a 6:34 p.m. ET post time on NBC. That's followed by a preview and predictions for the top finishers.

2016 Kentucky Derby Field

Post	Horse	Jockey	Odds
1	Trojan Nation	Aaron Gryder	+6600
2	Suddenbreakingnews	Luis Quinonez	+2000
3	Creator	Ricardo Santana Jr.	+1200
4	Mo Tom	Corey Lanerie	+2200
5	Gun Runner	Florent Geroux	+900
6	My Man Sam	Irad Ortiz Jr.	+2000
7	Oscar Nominated	Julien Leparoux	+6600
8	Lani	Yutaka Take	+2800
9	Destin	Javier Castellano	+1400
10	Whitmore	Victor Espinoza	+1800
11	Exaggerator	Kent Desormeaux	+750
12	Tom's Ready	Brian Hernandez Jr.	+4000
13	Nyquist	Mario Gutierrez	+300
14	Mohaymen	Junior Alvarado	+800
15	Outwork	John Velazquez	+1600
16	Shagaf	Joel Rosario	+2800
17	Mor Spirit	Gary Stevens	+1400
18	Majesto	Emisael Jaramillo	+3300
19	Brody's Cause	Luis Saez	+1400
20	Danzing Candy	Mike E. Smith	+2000

Race Preview and Predictions

Nyquist won his first seven starts, including four Grade I and two Grade II races, in relatively routine fashion. He outclassed the competition and didn't get seriously challenged much, which can help explain why he doesn't possess eye-popping speed numbers. He didn't need them.

The favorite has been consistently good. The question now is whether he's capable of taking it up one more notch when pushed by a strong Derby field. If he can, he'll continue his winning streak Saturday and start to generate some serious Triple Crown buzz.

John Cherwa of the Los Angeles Times passed along comments from owner Paul Reddam, who understands the difficulty of winning the first leg of the Triple Crown, but he remains optimistic.

"Statistically, we're most likely to lose," Reddam said. "Favorites lose two out of three times and this is a 20-horse field, so the law of averages say 19 times out of 20 you're going to get beat. But under those circumstances we have a degree of confidence."

Perhaps the biggest uncertainty heading into the Kentucky Derby is which version of Mohaymen will show up to Churchill Downs. The one who emerged victorious in his first five starts is a serious contender. The one who failed to fire against Nyquist in the Florida Derby is not.

The situation magnifies why the Triple Crown races are often tough to forecast. The small sample size means single results tend to get overblown, even though it could have just been an off day. It wouldn't be a surprise if that's the case for Mohaymen, who's a good bet to enjoy a bounce-back performance.

Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form expects the Kiaran McLaughlin trainee to make an early push:

Those looking for a horse in better form may opt for Gun Runner. He won both of his 2016 starts, the Risen Star Stakes and the Louisiana Derby, and he finished the road to the Kentucky Derby with more points than any other horse (151).

The onus is on jockey Florent Geroux to take advantage of a favorable draw to push him toward the front during the early stages of the race. If he's still firmly in the mix down the backstretch, there's a strong chance he'll be in contention at the end.

Andrew Champagne of TVG likes the way things set up for Gun Runner:

Then there's Destin, a contender a bit off the radar that deserves consideration. He's coming off victories in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and the Tampa Bay Derby in his last two outings. His steady progress gives him a chance to steal the show Saturday.

The long layoff could be an issue, though. He hasn't raced since his triumph in the Tampa Bay Derby nearly two months ago. Being away from competition for that long simply adds another variable to a race that already has a lot of them.

DRF Formulator noted the numbers related to extended layoffs and the Kentucky Derby:

Ultimately, there are two trains of thought heading into the race. One says take Nyquist as the most reliable performer in a field with its fair share of question marks. The other says go with a different horse, maybe even a long shot, in what could be a chaotic battle.

It's difficult to pick against an undefeated favorite without a clear reason, though. There are a lot of intriguing horses in the field, but none of them have been able to build up a resume quite like Nyquist's, which is why he's the best choice.

Predicted Finish: 1. Nyquist 2. Mohaymen 3. Destin