Kentucky Derby 2016 Post Positions: Horses, Jockeys with Best, Worst Race Odds
The 2016 Kentucky Derby trumpets parity when the sport could use it most.
While the exploits of California Chrome and Triple Crown winner American Pharoah brought plenty of new eyes to the sport, the job now is to keep said eyes there and interested.
A field seeming to have several serious contenders with an unpredictable outcome should help in this endeavor. Las Vegas has Nyquist as a large favorite, but based on a win streak with an admission, another horse could come in and halt the streak in one dash.
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With the event set for Saturday at 6:34 p.m. ET on NBCSN, let's attempt to identify the best and worst odds to put bettors out in front of the house.
2016 Kentucky Derby Lineup
| 1 | Trojan Nation | Paddy Gallagher | Aaron T. Gryder | +6600 |
| 2 | Suddenbreakingnews | Donnie Von Hemel | Luis S. Quinonez | +2000 |
| 3 | Creator | Steven Asmussen | Ricardo Santana, Jr. | +1200 |
| 4 | Mo Tom | Thomas Amoss | Corey J. Lanerie | +2200 |
| 5 | Gun Runner | Steven Asmussen | Florent Geroux | +900 |
| 6 | My Man Sam | Chad Brown | Julien R. Leparoux | +2000 |
| 7 | Oscar Nominated | Ken and Sarah Ramsey | Robby Albarado | +6600 |
| 8 | Lani | Koji Maeda | Yutaka Take | +2800 |
| 9 | Destin | Todd Pletcher | Javier Castellano | +1400 |
| 10 | Whitmore | Ron Moquett | Victor Espinoza | +1800 |
| 11 | Exaggerator | J. Keith Desormeaux | Kent J. Desormeaux | +750 |
| 12 | Tom's Ready | Dallas Stewart | Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. | +4000 |
| 13 | Nyquist | Doug O'Neill | Mario Gutierrez | +300 |
| 14 | Mohaymen | Kiaran McLaughlin | Junior Alvarado | +800 |
| 15 | Outwork | Todd Pletcher | John R. Velazquez | +1600 |
| 16 | Shagaf | Chad Brown | Irad Ortiz, Jr. | +2800 |
| 17 | Mor Spirit | Bob Baffert | Gary L. Stevens | +1400 |
| 18 | Majesto | Gustavo Delgado | Javier Castellano | +3300 |
| 19 | Brody's Cause | Dale Romans | Luis Saez | +1400 |
| 20 | Danzing Candy | Clifford Sise Jr. | Mike E. Smith | +2000 |
Worst Odds: Mor Spirit
Before Wednesday's draw, Mor Spirit looked like an incredible option for bettors.
What's not to like? Not only had the horse won a Grade 1 event last year at the Los Alamitos Futurity, but legendary Bob Baffert acts as trainer and a man with the same status, Gary Stevens, will direct things from up top Saturday.
The draw provided the needle for the growing balloon.
There, Baffert and Stevens got hit with the 17th post, from where no horse has ever won the Derby.
Baffert spoke with Tim Sullivan of the Courier-Journal about the predicament: "I wanted to be 16. I wanted to be outside. This horse runs better when he’s on the outside. I don’t have a problem with it. All the speed horses are outside. It’s interesting that all the closers are on the inside gate."
If a guy like Baffert doesn't sound too concerned, perhaps bettors shouldn't be, either.
But when it comes time to playing odds, such a factor throws up a large red flag. While it might be fun to be a part of history, it's not something worth risking.
Odds Worth a Look: Creator
Before the draw the talk seemed to center on horses such as Mor Spirit, Nyquist, Gun Runner, Exaggerator and a few others.
What about the Steven Asmussen-trained Creator?
Creator doesn't have the most impressive resume around given the lack of large-graded races, but the horse just took home first place in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby in mid-April, storming from last place to first. Sprinkle in a favorable slotting of third, and bettors might have a nice underrated play on their hands.
Normally it might not stand as such a great idea to throw down coin on a horse that took so long to break maiden, but Creator is running hot right now with a strong rest period between starts and has Ricardo Santana, Jr. up top as his jockey, a guy with more than 4,400 career starts, according to Equibase.
These two might have figured out the magic pace less than a month ago. Combine that with a favorable slot, and there's something to consider here.
Best Odds: Nyquist
There wasn't much capable of knocking Nyquist from the favorite slot.
So it goes for a horse unable to lose.
A winner of seven races in a row, there are four recent Grade 1 races mashed in there for good measure, the most recent a triumph at the Florida Derby in April.
If there's something to find concerning about Nyquist's odds other than the depth of the field, it's simple history, as ESPN's John Buccigross illustrated:
If that's a negative, though, post No. 13 is a major win.
“I feel great about it,” trainer Doug O’Neill said, according to USA Today's Dan Wolken. “Absolutely great.”
Why the celebration? Nyquist has shown time and again an ability to win from anywhere in any race style. Given the 13th post, jockey Mario Gutierrez can read and react to the field and place Nyquist wherever he chooses.
It's not broke—no fix needed. One could argue Nyquist couldn't have landed in a better spot.
Stats and information via KentuckyDerby.com unless otherwise specified. Odds via Odd Shark.
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