Kentucky Derby 2016 Lineup: Post Positions for All Entries of 142nd Race
The 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby will take place Saturday at Churchill Downs, and Wednesday's post position draw offered some clarity regarding the paths that this year's favorites will need to take in order to capture a title in Louisville.
Headlining the selection process was consensus undefeated favorite Nyquist, who will start out of the 13 post position—which has produced four winners since 1900, according to OddsShark.com's Mike Dempsey.
Here's a look at the complete field following Wednesday's draw:
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| 1 | Trojan Nation |
| 2 | Suddenbreakingnews |
| 3 | Creator |
| 4 | Mo Tom |
| 5 | Gun Runner |
| 6 | My Man Sam |
| 7 | Oscar Nominated |
| 8 | Lani |
| 9 | Destin |
| 10 | Whitmore |
| 11 | Exaggerator |
| 12 | Tom's Ready |
| 13 | Nyquist |
| 14 | Mohaymen |
| 15 | Outwork |
| 16 | Shagaf |
| 17 | Mor Spirit |
| 18 | Majesto |
| 19 | Brody's Cause |
| 20 | Danzing Candy |
Post Position Trends
While post positions alone can't predict the outcome of Saturday's race, they can offer a glimpse into which horses will be in prime spots to win the Run for the Roses.
According to OddsShark.com, post No. 5 has become the most coveted starting gate since 1900, with a Derby-high 13 winners bolting out of that spot en route to winning the year's first Triple Crown race.
In that regard, Gun Runner figures to garner plenty of attention in the run-up to Saturday's 6:34 p.m. ET start.
On the flip side, horses in the first three gates have the odds stacked against them from a historical perspective. Only one horse—Real Quiet in 1998—has won out of the first three gates in the past 18 years, and success is generally hard to come by from the far inside positions.
"Ferdinand was the last horse to win from the far inside post (in 1986), and you have to go back to Triple Crown winner Affirmed in 1978 to find a Derby winner that broke from gate No. 2," America's Best Racing's Christine Moore wrote. "Overall, posts 1 through 4 have a 7.3 percent win rate, but Super Saver (2010) is the only winner in the last 17 runnings."
The opposite is true for the far outside posts.
Although starting far on the outside doesn't allow horses to establish ideal position on the rail early on, auxiliary gates Nos. 15-20 have produced eight of the last 17 winners, according to Moore.
It should also be noted that, since 1999, posts No. 15 and 16 have produced stellar winning percentages of 17.6—the same as post No. 5.
Post No. 14, though, hasn't followed the lead of the two that succeed it in the order. According to ESPN.com's Mike Hogan, the 14th gate hasn't produced a winner since 1965. Furthermore, only two horses since 1900 have won when starting out of the 14th position, per OddsShark.
Ultimately, all eyes will be on Nyquist.
The last three betting favorites have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, per OddsShark, and if Nyquist is able to become the fourth straight, it will be the first time favorites have enjoyed such a fruitful run since 1972-75.
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