Kentucky Derby 2016 Odds: Early Look at Vegas' Lines for Each Horse in Field

For the first time since 2011, the first Saturday in May feels like it belongs to the Kentucky Derby. Floyd Mayweather Jr.'s (perhaps temporary) retirement leaves the Derby as the only major one-off event on the sports calendar, with the NBA playoffs also receiving its due attention.

For the previous four years, though, it felt like the Derby was a co-star to Mayweather's nightcap. That won't be the case this year. Churchill Downs has the entire stage to itself. 

Unfortunately, there's just one problem: The Triple Crown drought is over. American Pharoah pulled off the seemingly impossible a year ago, becoming the first horse to capture all three major races since Affirmed in 1978.

While the Derby rests its laurels on being an every-year spectacle, the horse racing industry as a whole has become somewhat dependent on the "will he or won't he" intrigue. That's still going to be there, but to a much lesser degree. Generations who grew into adulthood wondering if they'd ever see a Triple Crown winner no longer have to worry; it's now up to the race itself to draw in casual fans.

Will they pull it off? Let's take a look at the early odds and see if this field passes the intrigue test.

Early Kentucky Derby Odds

Team	Odds
Nyquist	+333
Exaggerator	+800
Mohaymen	+800
Gun Runner	+1000
Brody's Cause	+1200
Destin	+1400
Mo Tom	+1600
Suddenbreakingnews	+1600
Mor Spirit	+1800
Outwork	+2000
Creator	+2000
Danzing Candy	+2500
Shagaf	+2500
My Man Sam	+2500
Swipe	+3300
Lani	+3000
Smokey Image	+3300
Cherry Wine	+4000
Gift Box	+4000
Matt King Coal	+4000
Zulu	+5000
Whitmore	+5000
Dazzling Gem	+5000
Tom's Ready	+5000
Airoforce	+5000
Cocked and Loaded	+5000
Flexibility	+5000
Greenpointcrusader	+6600
Adventist	+6600
Discreetness	+6600
Collected	+6600

Odds via Odds Shark. 

Nyquist (+333)

Seven races down, seven wins for Nyquist so far in his young career. The Doug O'Neill-trained colt boasts wins at this year's Florida Derby and last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile among his biggest wins, and he's already taken down some of his biggest competition.

Four different times Swipe (+3300) has finished in second place behind Nyquist already in a race. Nyquist also took down Exaggerator (+800) in the San Vicente Stakes earlier this year. With Mohaymen (+800) attempting to recover from his first career loss—a fourth-place finish at the Nyquist-won Florida Derby—there's a clear separation in talent at the moment.

“You realize how lucky you are and how privileged you are to have an athlete like him that’s so mentally tough and so physically tough and have a family like we have here,” O’Neill said, per Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal.

O'Neill will be looking to win his second Kentucky Derby. He trained I'll Have Another in 2012 to wins in the Derby and Preakness before controversy halted the Triple Crown bid. First, O'Neill was hit with a wellness violation and given a 45-day ban. Then I'll Have Another suffered a calf injury that forced the colt out of the race.

Nyquist may wind up being O'Neill's chance at redemption. It might not be as high-profile as ending the Triple Crown drought would have, but finding a way back to Kentucky Derby triumph would be a good start.

Exaggerator (+800)

Nyquist may have beaten Exaggerator at San Vicente, but it wasn't in dominating fashion. Exaggerator came within 1 1/2 lengths of his rival, and the horse has remained active over the last couple months. Keith Desormeaux put the colt in both the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby hoping to get him in top shape, and it appears to have worked.

After a third-place finish in San Felipe, Exaggerator scored a dominant win at the Santa Anita Derby. The colt raced to a win of 6 1/4 lengths over race favorite Mor Spirit, navigating a sloppy track to put himself back in contention to be a Derby favorite.

“There’s no way getting around saying Nyquist is the horse to beat,” Desormeaux said, per Ted Lewis of the Advocate. “But we’ve got a maturing horse that we feel confident is going to be at his best on Derby day.”

Exaggerator's best hope may be if there is inclement weather. He looked strong navigating the slop at Santa Anita. Right now the Weather.com report isn't in Exaggerator's favor. It looks like it'll be an unseasonably hot and sunny day, which might make Exaggerator a bad bet. He's actually lost more races than he's won, so we may be overrating Exaggerator as a favorite.

Mohaymen (+800)

For the first five races of his career, Mohaymen looked unbeatable. He carried an undefeated streak into the Florida Derby and looked like he'd carry all the hype going into Churchill Downs. One fourth-place finish later and he's become something of an afterthought.

“If we were undefeated, it’d be a little crazy,” trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said, per David Grening of DRF.com. “But I think I would take the craziness and be undefeated.”

Mohaymen won the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Holy Bull Stakes earlier this year, so it's not as if he's on a losing streak. If you're looking for a horse to buy low on now with hopes of him getting a good post, Mohaymen may be the one.

As it stands for now, he's secondary behind Nyquist. That may change by Wednesday's post.