Kentucky Derby 2016: Early Odds and Predictions for Entire Entry Lineup
California Chrome and American Pharoah both made it to the winner's circle in the Kentucky Derby in each of the last two years. Can Nyquist make it three in a row for the race favorites in the Run for the Roses?
The Derby has regularly seen its favorites fade away or get beaten by upstarts, but recent races have seen a turnaround in that area. Nyquist appears to have the credentials to win the race and make it three winning favorites in a row.
Nyquist is rated as the 10-3 favorite, according to Odds Shark. The three-year-old Colt has gone to the post seven times in his career and has won each of those seven races.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
That's an impressive statistic, but the large Kentucky Derby field has taken down undefeated performers in the past. Nyquist likes to run fairly close to the front of the pack, where he can get the measure of the early leaders and then make his move.
That should be comforting to Nyquist's backers, because running from the back of the pack can be dangerous in the Derby. The large field usually means quite a bit of traffic for those who like to come from behind, and it can be difficult to negotiate.
Look for Nyquist to get to the lead by the top of the stretch, hold on to that lead in the final strides and claim victory.
| Nyquist | Doug O'Neill | 10-3 | Winner |
| Exaggerator | J. Keith Desormeaux | 8-1 | Second place |
| Suddenbreakingnews | Donnie Von Hemel | 16-1 | Third place |
| Gun Runner | Steven Asmussen | 10-1 | Fourth place |
| Mohaymen | Kiaran McLaughlin | 8-1 | Fifth place |
| Danzing Candy | Clifford Sise Jr. | 25-1 | Sixth place |
| Outwork | Todd Pletcher | 20-1 | Seventh place |
| Mor Spirit | Bob Baffert | 18-1 | Eight place |
| Mo Tom | Thomas Amoss | 16-1 | Ninth place |
| Brody's Cause | Dale Romans | 12-1 | 10th place or worse |
| Destin | Todd Pletcher | 14-1 | 10th place or worse |
| Creator | Steven Asmussen | 20-1 | 10th place or worse |
| Shagaf | Chad Brown | 25-1 | 10th place or worse |
| My Man Sam | Chad Brown | 25-1 | 10th place or worse |
| Trojan Nation | Patrick Gallagher | NA* | 10th place or worse |
| Lani | Mikio Matsunaga | 30-1 | 10th place or worse |
| Oscar Nominated | Michael J. Maker | NA* | 10th place or worse |
| Whitmore | Ron Moquett | 50-1 | 10th place or worse |
| Tom's Ready | Dallas Stewart | 50-1 | 10th place or worse |
| Majesto | Gustavo Delgaod | NA* | 10th place or worse |
| *-No odds listed from Odds Shark |
Exaggerator is one of the two second choices at 8-1, and the son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin should be a major factor in the race. Exaggerator has been on the board in seven of nine races in his career, and he has been to the winner's circle four times.
If there is any rain on Race Day, that is likely to work out in Exaggerator's favor. He won his last race at Santa Anita by 6 1/4 lengths in the mud, and Curlin was also an excellent runner in less-than-ideal conditions.
Exaggerator should finish in second place to Nyquist.
The Derby is likely to see a strong performance from at least one of the come-from-behind runners. Look for Suddenbreakingnews to get on the board.
Suddenbreakingnews is a 16-1 shot, but he should not be discounted after winning three times and adding four second-place finishes in eight career starts.
The son of Mineshaft won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park in last-to-first fashion, and if he has a clean trip and veteran jockey Kent Desormeaux can find a lane, he should be able to get up for third place in this race.
Gun Runner does not have a long history, having raced just five times going into the Derby, but he has won four of those races.
The three-year-old colt is trained by Steve Asmussen, and he is a 10-1 shot in the Run for the Roses. He is coming off an impressive victory in the Arkansas Derby, and he did it by staying close to the leader and pulling away impressively down the stretch.
Gun Runner has the talent to come away with the win at the Kentucky Derby, but we see him finishing fourth in this race. Asmussen's horse will get the break he needs at the start to be a serious contender, but he won't be able to outrun the top three horses.
Details provided by Jonathan Lintner of the Louisville Courier-Journal.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
