Kentucky Derby 2016: Horses, Favorites and Picks for This Year's Field
While the official draw for the Kentucky Derby is still days away, the likely field has been established, and now the hard work begins—handicapping the competitive group of horses.
Through months of planning and preparation, 20 of the best three-year-olds in the country are set to head to the starting gate on Saturday to determine who will have a spot among horse racing’s elite in the history books. There are the obvious top contenders, of course, but there are also some horses flying under the radar with a real chance to make an impact in the race.
Read on as we break down the field and try to separate the contenders from the pretenders and determine who will come out on top in the 142nd Kentucky Derby.
Favorites
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Nyquist
Nyquist is the obvious and deserving favorite. He is undefeated from seven starts and won the Eclipse Award for Champion Two-Year-Old last year after winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). As a sophomore, he has shown progression with each race and is 2-of-2 this year. Though he had some doubters, he silenced his critics with an emphatic victory over the highly regarded Mohaymen in the Florida Derby (G1).
Gun Runner
Gun Runner is another top contender, and it is difficult to find a legitimate flaw in his record. He has won four of his five starts and is undefeated from two races as a three-year-old. His victory last time out in the Louisiana Derby (G2) was impressive, and he showed he can be very tactical, which will work to his advantage. The one potential issue? His lone defeat did come at Churchill Downs last year.
Contenders
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Mohaymen
Can you really throw out a horse for one bad race? Before his flop in the Florida Derby (G1), he was the hottest horse on the Derby trail. With his hefty $2.2 million price tag, he seemed predestined to greatness. While the auction tab does not make the horse (look up the failure "The Green Monkey" and you'll see), he seemed to be living up to his hype until his last race. Since then, he has been training strongly, and after a recent workout, Steve Haskin of Bloodhorse.com tweeted, "It looked like the work took nothing out of him."
Exaggerator
Last year, Exaggerator looked like a horse that was always knocking on the door of a breakthrough win. He ran well in both the Breeders' Futurity (G1) and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) before taking down the big payday in the $1 million Delta Jackpot (G3).
Then, as a three-year-old, he was workmanlike at Santa Anita in the early prep races. When the skies opened up and left the main track sloppy before the Santa Anita Derby (G1), he showed an entirely new dimension and romped by 8 1/4 lengths. He's extraordinarily consistent and a real danger if there is rain.
Mor Spirit
Mor Spirit may have lost the battle in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), but the race seemed to be a positive learning experience for the talented colt, and he could wind up winning the war. He has been no worse than second from seven starts and had a sharp breeze at Churchill Downs on April 26. Trainer Bob Baffert will be trying for his fifth Kentucky Derby win. Last year he saddled American Pharoah to victory. As he told USA Today, "Last year, we were the headliner. Now we are the opening act."
Pretenders
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Brody's Cause
Brody's Cause has been inconsistent at best and defeated a largely suspect field in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) to stamp his ticket to the Kentucky Derby. He did launch a strong bid from off the pace to win but will likely have to deal with significantly tougher competition as well as more traffic. He needs to show more to be a top-tier horse.
Destin
Destin has all the tools to be a great racehorse. He has an extraordinary pedigree, a top trainer and a strong record. However, he will be trying to win the Kentucky Derby off an eight-week rest, and that in itself is a daunting task. Couple that with some greenness and an overall lack of experience, and this colt just does not have the foundation to get the job done.
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Long Shots
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Oscar Nominated
Oscar Nominated earned his trip to the Kentucky Derby with a victory in the Spiral Stakes (G3) at Turfway Park. A win is a win, right? Not quite. Turfway Park still utilizes a synthetic main track rather than a conventional dirt surface. Synthetics typically play more like turf, and their form can be misleading when a horse switches back to a more traditional surface.
Trojan Nation
Trojan Nation will try to win America's most prestigious race as a maiden—a horse who has never actually won a race. He has had six tries, and while he has hit the board in four of them, including a very competitive effort in the Wood Memorial (G1), the fact remains he is a maiden. His part-owner and breeder, Aaron Sones, explained it to Jeremy Balan of Bloodhorse.com: "Trojan Nation thinks he won the Wood, so as far as he's concerned, he's not a maiden anymore."
Early Predictions
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Now that we've worked our way through the field, here are my selections:
Win: Mohaymen
Place: Mor Spirit
Show: Nyquist
Post-Draw Effect
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Now, all of this well thought out analysis is subject to change with the post position draw. There is no creature on Earth that can throw the best laid plans in the air quite like a horse can and the post position draw can dramatically alter the way the race plays out.
Bob Baffert, a veteran to the Kentucky Derby, knows all too well not to put the cart before the literal horse. As he told Jennie Rees of Bloodhorse.com, it takes more than just a good horse to win the Kentucky Derby.
"It's [a] very competitive bunch of horses. I think the post is going to matter, the break. There's going to be a lot of luck involved...We have another week to go, so I don't like to get ahead of myself."
What is an ideal post position for one horse could spell disaster for another contender. It all depends on their running style and how well they break. However, no one wants the inside post position so whoever is unlucky enough to draw that will already have one hurdle to overcome.
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