Kentucky Derby 2016: Complete Odds and Early Favorites to Consider

Just over six months after Triple Crown winner American Pharoah completed the Grand Slam in the 2015 Breeders' Cup Classic, horse racing returns to the spotlight next Saturday for the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby.

Nyquist, who's undefeated in seven career starts, figures to get listed as the favorite following the post-position draw Wednesday night. He'll face no shortage of competition, however, with this year's field featuring an impressive amount of depth.

With that in mind, let's take an early glance at the lines from Odds Shark based on the projected 20-horse field from Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal. That's followed by a look at the top contenders.

Early 2016 Kentucky Derby Odds

Rank	Horse	Line
1	Nyquist	+333
T-2	Exaggerator	+800
T-2	Mohaymen	+800
4	Gun Runner	+1000
5	Brodys Cause	+1200
6	Destin	+1400
T-7	Mo Tom	+1600
T-7	Suddenbreakingnews	+1600
9	Mor Spirit	+1800
T-10	Outwork	+2000
T-10	Creator	+2000
T-12	Danzing Candy	+2500
T-12	Shagaf	+2500
T-12	My Man Sam	+2500
15	Lani	+3000
T-16	Whitmore	+5000
T-16	Toms Ready	+5000
Unranked	Oscar Nominated	TBA
Unranked	Majesto	TBA
Unranked	Trojan Nation	TBA

Analyzing Top Contenders

Nyquist

Longtime horse racing fans waited 37 years to see American Pharoah break the sport's Triple Crown drought. Now it's possible it could happen two years in a row. Nyquist has showcased that type of potential during the first seven races of his career.

The likely Derby favorite hasn't just been winning races, he's been beating strong fields in high-profile races. He's won four Grade I races, including the Florida Derby and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and a pair of Grade II races during his unbeaten run.

Hoa Quach of My News LA passed along comments from Nyquist's trainer, Doug O'Neill, about trying to pick up right where last year's memorable story ended:

"

I think it's a great opportunity for all of us in the horse racing world to take advantage of what American Pharoah and his connections did.

I mean, they took horse racing from the back pages of the sports section, sometimes not even covered in the sports section, to the front page of the sports section. I look forward to having Nyquist be on the front of the sports section. I look forward to it being a real positive, good story for a great business that there's a lot of great people in. I'm excited about us following up the great year American Pharoah had … Hopefully Nyquist can carry the torch farther.

"

As good as he's been, post position is still important for the Kentucky Derby. It all comes down to avoiding the extreme inside or extreme outside of the gate. Landing at No. 1 or No. 20 wouldn't knock him out of contention by any means, but it makes the task far more difficult with such a large field.

If he does manage to win the Derby, the Triple Crown talk will ignite immediately. This year's three-year-old group of horses looks more well-rounded than one year ago, so that's another potential roadblock. But Nyquist has handled top-flight competition just fine so far.

Exaggerator

It's hard to know what to expect from Exaggerator, as his last two races illustrate. He looked like a legitimate Derby contender in the Santa Anita Derby, but failed to showcase the necessary finishing kick—a crucial factor at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May—in the San Felipe Stakes.

He's also no stranger to Nyquist. The Triple Crown hopefuls have faced off three times, including their debuts in a Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita last June. In those head-to-head battles, Exaggerator has finished second, fourth and fifth.

Ultimately, while a horse like Nyquist has a little margin for error, Exaggerator is going to need everything to be perfect to win the Kentucky Derby. Mike Welsch of the Daily Racing Form did note he's looked comfortable since arriving to Louisville:

Combine that with the fact he's coming off a strong showing in the Santa Anita Derby, and there's obviously plenty of reason for optimism. If he can continue to build on those positive signs without suffering another setback, he's a dangerous horse.

Mohaymen

Mohaymen arrives to the Kentucky Derby with some question marks. He started his career with five consecutive victories, including four Grade II stakes. But he finished fourth in the Florida Derby against a rock-solid field headlined by Nyquist.

So, as you'd expect, the question is whether the competition was too much or if he simply had an off day at Gulfstream Park in early April. That uncertainty could actually make him a nice value play in exotic wagers for the Derby depending on how the final odds shape up.

He'll have to overcome some history in order to actually win the first leg of the Triple Crown, though. Lane Gold of ESPN pointed out horses that finish outside the money in the Florida Derby don't have a promising track record in the Kentucky Derby:

The bottom line remains much the same across the board. A lot of horses in the field have occasionally flashed terrific potential. Nyquist has shown it every single time out. It's going to take a special effort for Mohaymen or another one of the contenders to pull off the upset.