Masters Cut Line 2016: Latest Projections After Thursday's Leaderboard Analysis

The 2016 Masters began at the Augusta National Golf Club just as last year's edition ended: with Jordan Spieth atop the leaderboard.

The 2015 champion set the pace after shooting a six-under 66. Danny Lee and Shane Lowry are both two shots back in a tie for second place. Here's a look at the leaderboard after 18 holes:

In 2014, the Masters changed the rules regarding the cut line to include the top 50 golfers and anybody within 10 shots of the leader. The line will almost certainly move Friday, but for now, everybody at four over would be safe.

Ernie Els and Rickie Fowler, each shooting an eight-over 80, and Trevor Immelman, sitting at five over, are among those with a mountain to climb in the second round if they hope to play through the weekend. Meanwhile, Adam Scott, Charl Schwartzel and Jason Dufner are right on the edge with little margin for error.

To a certain extent, it's surprising Els is only four shots off the projected cut. He began his Masters with a quintuple bogey on No. 1, which is the highest score ever on the hole, per SportsCenter. Any recreational golfer could relate to the four-time major champion's problems on the green, via CBC Sports:

Unlike Els, Fowler headed to Augusta with reasonably high expectations. According to Odds Shark, he had 11-1 odds of winning the Masters, fourth-lowest among this year's field. Now, his chances of earning a green jacket are almost certainly gone.

Things started badly for Fowler after he double-bogeyed the opening hole. He dug out of that hole with three birdies over the next four holes, however. Instead of that birdie stretch signaling good things to come, Fowler closed out the front nine with one bogey over the subsequent four holes. He unraveled on the back nine with a triple bogey on No. 13 and a double bogey on No. 16.

ESPN.com's Jason Sobel shared the 27-year-old's thoughts after the round:

GolfChannel.com's Will Gray knows one golfer who benefited from Fowler's struggles:

Scott isn't in nearly the same amount of trouble as Fowler and Els, but that doesn't dampen the disappointment from seeing him shoot four over in the first round. The 35-year-old won the Honda Classic and WGC-Cadillac Championship, not to mention the 2013 Masters.

According to PGATour.com, Scott was second in scoring average (69.237) and seventh in average greens in regulation (72.62 percent) following the Shell Houston Open. His normally impressive ball-striking was nowhere to be found in Augusta, as he reached only nine of the 18 greens in regulation and landed six of his 14 drives on the fairway.

Before Scott can refocus on winning his second Masters title, he'll need to ensure he survives beyond the second round.

Not in any immediate danger, Watson, Martin Kaymer, Keegan Bradley and Tom Watson are all sitting at two over, but they're close enough to the projected cut line that they can't afford many mistakes.

Spieth is likely to move the line a little closer to even par Friday—to the extent the top 50 is the sole cutoff, which was the case in each of the last two years.