NIT 2016: Predicting Winner and Final Score for Championship Game

For some teams, playing in the NIT is a disappointment, but for others, it's a chance to prove the NCAA tournament selection committee made a mistake.

On Thursday night in the NIT final, the Valparaiso Crusaders (30-6) have the opportunity to show they belonged in the NCAA tournament that featured a few questionable teams this year.

Their consolation prize for being left out was a No. 1 seed in the NIT, and with four wins, they have proved worthy of being considered one of the top teams in the tournament.

While the No. 4 George Washington Colonials (27-10) didn't have as strong of a case to get in the NCAA tournament, they are proving it wouldn't have been crazy to include them in the field.

GW comes into the game with victories in five of its last six contests, including four NIT wins against teams with a combined average seed of 2.5. The Colonials were even more impressive during the regular season, notching wins over three NCAA tournament teams: the Seton Hall Pirates (Big East tournament champions), VCU Rams (co-Atlantic 10 regular-season champions) and the No. 1 seed Virginia Cavaliers.

The postseason success has helped both schools set program records for wins, and this one should prove to be a tight contest. 

What: NIT Championship

When: March 31, 7 p.m. ET

Where: New York City (Madison Square Garden)

TV: ESPN

Live Stream: WatchESPN

Preview and Prediction

Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

The Crusaders sport a top seed as well as the top scoring defense out of the Horizon League at just 62.2 points per game allowed. They've been true to that stat in the NIT by holding opponents to just 64 points per contest—although it's skewed a bit after allowing the St. Mary's Gaels to score just 44 points.

Valparaiso					George Washington
Player	Points	Rebounds	Assists		Player	Points	Rebounds	Assists
Keith Carter, G	10.3	3.3	4.4		Patricio Garino, G	14.1	4.3	1.5
Shane Hammink, G	8.9	3.2	1.8		Joe McDonald, G	8.7	5.4	3.0
Darien Walker, G	8.1	3.6	1.1		Tyler Cavanaugh, F	16.9	7.6	1.2
Alec Peters, F	18.4	8.4	1.3		Kevin Larsen, F	12.1	8.4	2.6
Vashil Fernandez, C	5.6	7.3	3.3*		Yuta Watanabe, F	8.5	4.0	1.4

George Washington has been stingy toward opponents as well, allowing an A-10 fourth-best 68.7 points per game. That level of defense didn't show up until a 65-46 victory over the San Diego State Aztecs in the semifinals, when the Colonials built a 20-point lead against the Mountain West team that had not been in that position since Dec. 6.

College basketball reporter Patrick Stevens was impressed with the Colonials' effort:

The most impressive effort came from Tyler Cavanaugh, who dropped 20 points and grabbed 11 rebounds in the victory. Valparaiso will counter the 6'9", 235-pound power forward with a big man of its own in 6'9", 230-pound Alec Peters.

The junior is averaging 18.4 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. He had 15 points, nine rebounds and four assists in a semifinal win over the BYU Cougars.

Prior to the victory, ESPN college basketball analyst Fran Fraschilla compared him to one of the college game's better players of the last decade:

Peters said he and his teammates are enjoying the run, per Ray Curren of Big Apple Buckets.

“We’re over it (the NCAA rejection) at this point. We’re playing for an NIT championship, which in my mind is almost better than getting to the first round of the NCAA tournament and losing,” Peters said. “We have a chance of winning our last game, which not very many teams get to say.”

They certainly have a chance, but don't count on it.

Judging by record only, the Crusaders have the edge with three more overall victories (30 to GW's 27) and nine wins in their past 10 games. However, it took a clutch three-pointer by David Skara to keep them from losing to BYU in the semifinals.

The Colonials, on the other hand, have beaten their last three NIT opponents by 13.3 points per game and have defeated three teams this year with an RPI better than Valpo's 49. The Crusaders have played two teams with an RPI as good as George Washington's 65, and they went 1-1 with a loss to the Oregon Ducks and a victory against the Oregon State Beavers.

Look for another big game from Cavanaugh, which will earn him the MVP award and give his team a close victory.

Prediction: George Washington wins, 74-70.